Machine learning (ML) catalogs contain many more earthquakes than routine catalogs, but their performance in phase picking and earthquake detection has not been fully evaluated. We develop station-level detection probabilities using logistic regression and combine them across a seismic network to compute spatial magnitude-of-completeness fields. We apply this approach to two catalogs from the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence that were constructed from the same seismic network, one routine and one ML based. At the station level, the ML picker increases detection sensitivity by identifying smaller magnitude events and detecting earthquakes at greater distances. Spatially, the magnitude-of-completeness decreases substantially, with median values shifting from 1.6 to 0.5 for P waves and from 1.7 to 0.5 for S waves. However, the ML catalog also shows greater variability in station-level performance than the routine catalog. These results demonstrate that ML-based improvements in detectability are widespread but spatially non-uniform, highlighting their benefits, their limitations, and the potential for further improvements.
The inter-event time, IET, is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently a specific IET- model was suggested for dynamic probabilistic prediction of M > 5.5 events in Italy . In this study we analyze both some aspects of the statistical estimation of the model and its predictive ability. We find that more or less effective prediction is possible within 4 out of 34 seismotectonic zones where seismicity rate or clustering of events is relatively high. We show that, in the framework of the model…
We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010), approximates seismicity by a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing…
We introduce the Anisotropic Clustering of Location Uncertainty Distributions (ACLUD) method to reconstruct active fault networks on the basis of both earthquake locations and their estimated individual uncertainties. After a massive search through the large solution space of possible reconstructed fault networks, we apply six different validation procedures in order to select the corresponding best fault network. Two of the validation steps (cross-validation and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) process the fit residuals, while the four others look for solutions that provide the best agree…
Seismotectonics and Slip Behavior of a Submarine Plate Boundary Fault from Seismicity Repeaters and Tomography using a high-resolution earthquake catalog from machine learning
It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural engineering standards (e.g. Eurocodes). A special safety factor is introduced and related to the partial factor acting on the mechanical moment representing the fault. A comparison is then made between the hazard maps obtained for Italy with the Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) technique, using two approaches for the definition of the seismic…
Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase transitions. Using an augmented Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model that accounts for the spatial variability of the background rates $μ(x,y)$, we present a direct quantitative test of criticality. We calibrate the model to the ANSS catalog of the entire globe, the region around California, and the Geonet catalog for the region around New Zealand …
A recently proposed method of constructing seismic networks from 'record breaking events' from the earthquake catalog of California (Phy. Rev. E, 77 6,066104, 2008) was successfull in establishing causal features to seismicity and arrive at estimates for rupture length and its scaling with magnitude. The results of our implementation of this procedure on the earthquake catalog of Japan establishes the robustness of the procedure. Additionally, we find that the temporal distributions are able to detect heterogeneties in the seismicity of the region.
We present the "condensation" method that exploits the heterogeneity of the probability distribution functions (PDF) of event locations to improve the spatial information content of seismic catalogs. The method reduces the size of seismic catalogs while improving the access to the spatial information content of seismic catalogs. The PDFs of events are first ranked by decreasing location errors and then successively condensed onto better located and lower variance event PDFs. The obtained condensed catalog attributes different weights to each event, providing an optimal spatial representation w…
Any periodic variations of earthquake occurrence rates in response to small, known, periodic stress variations provide important opportunities to learn about the earthquake nucleation process. Yet, reliable detection of earthquake periodicity is complicated by the presence of earthquake clustering due to aftershocks and foreshocks. Existing methods for detecting periodicity in an earthquake catalogue typically require the prior removal of these clustered events. Declustering is a highly uncertain process, so declustering methods are inherently non-unique. Incorrect declustering may remove some…
It has been shown [Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011); Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude $M$ greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance $κ_1$ of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity. Here, we study the fluctuations of this order parameter using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for a magnitude threshold $M_{thres}=5.0$ and focus on its behavior before major earthquakes. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seism…
We propose a new pattern recognition method that is able to reconstruct the 3D structure of the active part of a fault network using the spatial location of earthquakes. The method is a generalization of the so-called dynamic clustering method, that originally partitions a set of datapoints into clusters, using a global minimization criterion over the spatial inertia of those clusters. The new method improves on it by taking into account the full spatial inertia tensor of each cluster, in order to partition the dataset into fault-like, anisotropic clusters. Given a catalog of seismic events, t…
Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies, including seismic hazard assessment. We assess the effect of declustering on the frequency-magnitude distribution of mainshocks. In particular, we examine the dependence of the b-value of declustered catalogs on the choice of declustering approach and algorithm-specific parameters. Using the catalog of earthquakes in California since 1980, we show that the b-value decreases by up to 30% due to declustering with respect …
Starting in April 2004, unusual seismic activity was observed in the interior of the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) with much evidence pointing to a reawakening of volcanic activity. This seismicity is now analyzed with techniques unprecedented in previous studies of this crisis. The 200 earthquakes located onshore during 2004 and 2005 have been classified by cross-correlation, resulting in a small number of significant families. The application of a relative location algorithm (hypoDD) revealed important features about the spatial distribution of the earthquakes. The seismic catal…
The analysis of the earthquakes catalog of Greece for the period 1964 to 2010 indicates a continuously increasing no. of seismic events. A detailed determination of the cumulative seismic energy release, for specific earthquake magnitudes, revealed that for magnitudes up to Ms = 5.0R the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, is at a state of accelerating deformation for almost the last 10 years. The background seismicity rate, considering constant cumulative seismic energy release for the entire study period, corresponds to a magnitude of Ms = 5.5R, while for earthquakes o…
The recent evolution of induced seismicity in Central United States calls for exhaustive catalogs to improve seismic hazard assessment. Over the last decades, the volume of seismic data has increased exponentially, creating a need for efficient algorithms to reliably detect and locate earthquakes. Today's most elaborate methods scan through the plethora of continuous seismic records, searching for repeating seismic signals. In this work, we leverage the recent advances in artificial intelligence and present ConvNetQuake, a highly scalable convolutional neural network for earthquake detection a…
In models of triggered seismicity and in their inversion with empirical data, the detection threshold m_d is commonly equated to the magnitude m_0 of the smallest triggering earthquake. This unjustified assumption neglects the possibility of shocks below the detection threshold triggering observable events. We introduce a formalism that distinguishes between the detection threshold m_d and the minimum triggering earthquake m_0 < m_d. By considering the branching structure of one complete cascade of triggered events, we derive the apparent branching ratio n_a (which is the apparent fraction of …
On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake occurrence hypotheses that have been formalized as probabilistic earthquake forecasts over temporal scales that range from days to years. In the first round of forecast submissions, members of the CSEP-Italy Working Group presented eighteen five-year and ten-year earthquake forecasts to the European CSEP Testing Center at ETH Zurich. We considered the twelve …
We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sealevel variations, by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sealevel, by changing the Earth gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sealevel, i.e. the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogues we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sealevel measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estima…
In this paper, we used the Global Catalog of the National Earthquake Information Center US Geological Survey (NEIC USGS) for analysis of the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes. We selected the unimodal part of the distribution and proposed an empirical formula that approximates this part in a wide range of magnitudes. The formula may be useful in studying the problems seismology, in which the expected effect is manifested in relatively weak earthquakes. The paper will be sent to the journal Geodynamics and Tectonophysics (ISSN 2078-502X). Keywords: planetary seismicity, Gutenberg-…
The North Anatolian Fault experienced large earthquakes with 250-400 years recurrence time. In the Marmara Sea region, the 1999 (Mw = 7.4) and the 1912 (Mw = 7.4) earthquake ruptures bound the Central Marmara Sea fault segment. Using historical-instrumental seismicity catalogue and paleoseismic results (~2000-year database), the mapped fault segments, fault kinematic and GPS data, we compute the paleoseismic-seismic moment rate and geodetic moment rate. A clear discrepancy appears between the moment rates and implies a significant delay in the seismic slip along the fault in the Marmara Sea. T…
The aftershock productivity law, first described by Utsu in 1970, is an exponential function of the form K=K0.exp(αM) where K is the number of aftershocks, M the mainshock magnitude, and α the productivity parameter. The Utsu law remains empirical in nature although it has also been retrieved in static stress simulations. Here, we explain this law based on Solid Seismicity, a geometrical theory of seismicity where seismicity patterns are described by mathematical expressions obtained from geometric operations on a permanent static stress field. We recover the exponential form but with a break …
Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this relation and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls the relative role of small compared to large earthquakes. We show that seismicity triggering is driven by the smallest earthquakes, which trigger fewer events than larger earthquakes, but which are much more numerous. We propose that the non-trivial scaling of the number of triggered earthquakes emerges from the fractal spatial distribution of seismicity.
We inquire the statistical nature and dynamics of shallow and deep seismogenesis along major plate margins of the NW Circum-Pacific Belt, by examining whether earthquakes are generated by Poisson processes and are independent (uncorrelated), or by Complex processes and are dependent (correlated). Analysis is based of Non Extensive Statistical Physics and the complete and homogeneous catalogue of the Japan Meteorological Agency for the period 2002-2016.5. Emphasis is given to background seismicity recovered by removing aftershocks with stochastic declustering. Long-term correlation and long-ran…
Enhanced Seismicity Monitoring in the Rapid Scientific Response to the 2025 Santorini Crisis
The Lyell Centre, British Geological Survey（英国地质调查局利尔中心）；School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学地球科学学院）；Department of Geophysics, Stanford University（斯坦福大学地球物理学系）；GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences（GFZ德国地学研究中心赫尔姆霍茨）；RWTH Aachen University（亚琛工业大学）；Dipartimento di Fisica Ettore Pancini, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II（那不勒斯费德里科二世大学埃托雷·潘奇尼物理系）；Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)（意大利国家地球物理学和火山学研究所）；U.S. Geological Survey, Volcano Disaster Assistance Program（美国地质调查局火山灾害援助计划）；Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford（牛津大学地球科学系）；Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California（南加州大学土木与环境工程系）；Division of Natural Sciences, Academy of Athens（雅典科学院自然科学部）；U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center（美国地质调查局太平洋沿海与海洋科学中心）；Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens（雅典国立天文台地球动力学研究所）；Dipartimento di Geoscienze, Università degli Studi di Padova（帕多瓦大学地球科学系）；Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell’ Ambiente e delle Risorse, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II（那不勒斯费德里科二世大学地球、环境与资源科学系）
In this study, we propose an analysis of the earthquake clusters that occurred in North-Eastern Italy and western Slovenia from 1977 to today. Given a mainshock generating alarm in the population, we are interested in forecasting if a similar magnitude earthquake will follow. We classify the earthquake clusters associated with mainshocks of magnitude Mm into two classes: if the strongest aftershock has a magnitude >=Mm-1 (swarms or large aftershock seismic sequences) as type A, otherwise (smaller aftershocks seismic sequences) as type B. A large aftershock following a main shock can cause sign…
We show the capabilities of a downhole Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) array in detecting, locating and characterizing low-magnitude earthquakes occurring in the vicinity of the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) site in Utah. 10.5 days of continuous data were acquired in a monitoring well at the FORGE geothermal site during the initial stimulation of an Enhanced Geothermal System in April-May 2019. Earthquake activity beneath Mineral Mountains, Utah also occurred within 10 km of the FORGE monitoring well. During the experiment, four events from those areas were …
Waiting-time statistics are generated from the Olami-Feder-Christensen model and shown to mimic some aspects of real seismicity. Preliminary analysis of the model data implies a recently proposed universal scaling law for the distribution in seismicity may be due to a mixing between aftershocks and uncorrelated event pairs, thus having limited application. Earthquake catalog data is also presented to support the argument.
Evaluating the performance of machine-learning-based phase pickers when applied to ocean bottom seismic data: Blanco oceanic transform fault as a case study
The subsequent series of responses to big events may exhibit a synchronicity of event number, frequency and energy release in different fault zones. This synchronicity is a reliable source for probing non-intuitive geological structures, assessing regional seismicity hazard map and even predicting the next big events. The synchronicity of main faults in the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is still unknown to us. We propose to examine the correlation of earthquake occurrence among different fault zones to indicate this synchronicity, and to obtain a preliminary understanding of ge…
One of the main interests in seismology is the formulation of models able to describe the clustering in time occurrence of earthquakes. Analysis of the Southern California Catalog shows magnitude clustering in correspondence to temporal clustering. Here we propose a dynamical scaling hypothesis in which time is rescaled in terms of magnitude. This hypothesis is introduced in the context of a generalized trigger model and gives account for clustering in time and magnitude for earthquake occurrence. The model is able to generate a synthetic catalog reproducing magnitude and inter-even time distr…
In statistical seismology, the Epidemic Type Aftershocks Sequence (ETAS) model is a branching process used world-wide to forecast earthquake intensity rates and reproduce many statistical features observed in seismicity catalogs. In this paper, we describe a fractional differential equation that governs the earthquake intensity rate of the pure temporal ETAS model by using the Caputo fractional derivative and we solve it analytically. We highlight that the tools and special functions of fractional calculus simplify the classical methods employed to obtain the intensity rate and let us describe…
In this work the data of the earthquake catalog of the NOAA, National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) are processed in terms of global seismic energy release. The determined Global Cumulative Seismic Energy Release (GCSER) graph as a function of time, is analyzed in the magnitude domain (discrete energy windows). Characteristic components of the analyzed graph are: its accelerated deformation character observed for energy windows lower than the background seismicity (M = 7.0 - 7.5), its lock state that started on 1923 and long seismic quiescence periods that preceded recent mega - earthquakes. …
The Multifractal Stress-Activated (MSA) model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off $M_0$, the exponent $p$ of the Omori law for the seismic decay of aftershocks is a linear increasing function $p(M) =a M+b$ of the main shock magnitude $M$. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California SCEC catalog. Here, we confirm this law using an updated, longer version of the same catalog, as well as new methods to estimate $p$. One of this methods…
Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we present a class of smoothed seismicity models (SSMs) based on the principles of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which forecast the location, time and magnitude of all future earthquakes using the estimates of the background seismicity rate and the rates of future aftershocks of all generations. Using the Californian earthquake catalog, we f…
We present a new method of data clustering applied to earthquake catalogs, with the goal of reconstructing the seismically active part of fault networks. We first use an original method to separate clustered events from uncorrelated seismicity using the distribution of volumes of tetrahedra defined by closest neighbor events in the original and randomized seismic catalogs. The spatial disorder of the complex geometry of fault networks is then taken into account by defining faults as probabilistic anisotropic kernels, whose structures are motivated by properties of discontinuous tectonic deform…
The 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, Japan revisited: Insights from Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Seismicity Parameters
Farhangian University（法尔干大学）；Ankara University（安卡拉大学）；University of Beira Interior（贝拉内陆大学）；Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo（东京大学大气海洋研究所）
Machine Learning (ML) methods have demonstrated exceptional performance in recent years when applied to the task of seismic event detection. With numerous ML techniques now available for detecting seismicity, applying these methods in practice can help further highlight their advantages over more traditional approaches. Constructing such workflows also enables benchmarking comparisons of the latest algorithms on practical data. We combine the latest methods in seismic event detection to analyse an 18-day period of aftershock seismicity for the $M_{w}$ 6.4 2019 Durrës earthquake in Albania. We …
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for model calibration on long-term earthquake catalogs with temporal variation of the completeness magnitude, $m_c$. This calibration technique is beneficial for long-term probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which is often based on a mixture of instrumental and historical catalogs. The second method generalizes the concept of $m_c$, considering rate- an…
We modify the new method for the statistical estimation of the tail distribution of earthquake seismic moments introduced by Pisarenko et al. [2009] and apply it to the earthquake catalog of Japan (1923-2007). The method is based on the two main limit theorems of the theory of extreme values and on the derived duality between the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV). We obtain the distribution of maximum earthquake magnitudes in future time intervals of arbitrary duration tau. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Qq(tau) at an…
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time-dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. But catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clustering models, on their forecasts and on their evaluation by CSEP's consistency tests. First, we quantify magnitude uncertainties. We find that magnitude uncertainty is more heavy-tailed than a Gaussian, …
A characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a simultaneous distinct minimum upon analyzing the seismic catalogue in a new time domain termed natural time and employing a sliding natural time window comprising a number of events that would occur in a few months. Here, we focus on the minima preceding all earthquakes of magnitude 8 (and 9) class that occurred in Japanese area from 1 January 1984 to 11 …
Earthquake monitoring workflows are designed to detect earthquake signals and to determine source characteristics from continuous waveform data. Recent developments in deep learning seismology have been used to improve tasks within earthquake monitoring workflows that allow the fast and accurate detection of up to orders of magnitude more small events than are present in conventional catalogs. To facilitate the application of machine-learning algorithms to large-volume seismic records, we developed a cloud-based earthquake monitoring workflow, QuakeFlow, that applies multiple processing steps …
Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from the phase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this Pattern Informatics (PI) method has been encouraging, the method is still in its infancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivity investigation and optimization all still need to be performed. In this paper, we…
Many active volcanoes in the world exhibit Strombolian activity, which is typically characterized by relatively frequent mild events and also by rare and much more destructive major explosions and paroxysms. Detailed analyses of past major and minor events can help to understand the eruptive behavior of the volcano and the underlying physical and chemical processes. Catalogs of volcanic eruptions may be established using continuous seismic recordings at stations in the proximity of volcanoes. However, in many cases, the analysis of the recordings relies heavily on the manual picking of events …
A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence of magnitude correlations. The standard approach generally assumes that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Here we show the existence of clustering in magnitude: earthquakes occur with higher probability close in time, space and magnitude to previous events. More precisely, the next earthquake tends to have a magnitude simi…
