We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sealevel variations, by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sealevel, by changing the Earth gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sealevel, i.e. the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogues we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sealevel measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estimate of absolute sealevel variations of seismic origin.
Our results confirm that, on a global scale, most of the signal is associated with few giant thrust events, and that RSL estimates obtained using tide-gauge data can be sensibly affected by the seismic driven sealevel signal.
The recent measures of sealevel obtained by satellite altimetry show a wide regional variation of sealevel trends over the oceanic surfaces, with the largest deviations from the mean trend occurring in tectonically active regions. While our estimates of average absolute sealevel variations turn out to be orders of magnitude smaller than the satellite measured variations, we can still argue that mass redistribution associated with aseismic tectonic processes may contribute to the observed regional variability of sealevel variations.
Seasonal patterns associated with stress modulation, as evidenced by earthquake occurrence, have been detected in regions characterized by present day mountain building and glacial retreat in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Himalaya and the Alps, seismicity is peaking in spring and summer; opposite behaviour is observed in the Apennines. This diametrical behaviour, confirmed by recent strong earthquakes, well correlates with the dominant tectonic regime: peak in spring and summer in shortening areas, peak in fall and winter in extensional areas. The analysis of the seasonal effect is extended …
The North Anatolian Fault experienced large earthquakes with 250-400 years recurrence time. In the Marmara Sea region, the 1999 (Mw = 7.4) and the 1912 (Mw = 7.4) earthquake ruptures bound the Central Marmara Sea fault segment. Using historical-instrumental seismicity catalogue and paleoseismic results (~2000-year database), the mapped fault segments, fault kinematic and GPS data, we compute the paleoseismic-seismic moment rate and geodetic moment rate. A clear discrepancy appears between the moment rates and implies a significant delay in the seismic slip along the fault in the Marmara Sea. T…
We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic quiescence evaluation, and an analysis of seismicity density in space and time. The spatial extent of precursory patterns differs from one method to the other and ranges from local scales (typically, asperity size) to regional scales (e.g., 2 degree x 3 degree around the source zone). The earthquakes were preceded by periods of pronounced anomalies, which lasted …
Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are very heterogeneous and less brittle; progressive failures of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a characteristic earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another characteristic earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its curre…
Physics-Based Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment: A New Paradigm for Earthquake Forecasting
Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech)（南方科技大学高等交叉研究院风险、预测与管理研究所）；Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)（意大利国家地球物理学与火山学研究所）
Seismotectonics and Slip Behavior of a Submarine Plate Boundary Fault from Seismicity Repeaters and Tomography using a high-resolution earthquake catalog from machine learning
The recent evolution of induced seismicity in Central United States calls for exhaustive catalogs to improve seismic hazard assessment. Over the last decades, the volume of seismic data has increased exponentially, creating a need for efficient algorithms to reliably detect and locate earthquakes. Today's most elaborate methods scan through the plethora of continuous seismic records, searching for repeating seismic signals. In this work, we leverage the recent advances in artificial intelligence and present ConvNetQuake, a highly scalable convolutional neural network for earthquake detection a…
Numerical simulation of seismicity has been successfully developed and used for the two last decades. Presently, the general theory of modeling and the progress in computational techniques provide wide options for simulation of seismic and aseismic events with various source mechanisms accounting for blocky structure of rock mass, inclusions, faults, cracks, complicated contact conditions and various mechanical properties of rock. Meanwhile, in practical applications, the input data are limited and uncertain. The data on observed seismicity are also often limited with a few parameters, like co…
The Roles of Low-Noise Stations, Arrays and Ocean-Bottom Seismometers in Monitoring UK Offshore Seismicity associated with Subsurface Storage of Carbon Dioxide
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学地球科学学院）
Seismic vulnerability analysis of existing buildings requires basic information on their structural behaviour. The ambient vibrations of buildings and the modal parameters (frequencies, damping ration and modal shapes) that can be extracted from them naturally include the geometry and quality of material in the linear elastic part of their behaviour. The aim of this work is to use this modal information to help the vulnerability assessment. A linear dynamic modal model based on experimental modal parameters is proposed and the fragility curve corresponding to the damage state ?Slight? is built…
Spatio-temporal evolution of low-magnitude seismicity before the May 24, 2013, Sea of Okhotsk earthquake recovered by waveform cross correlation. Is it an earthquake prediction case?
It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural engineering standards (e.g. Eurocodes). A special safety factor is introduced and related to the partial factor acting on the mechanical moment representing the fault. A comparison is then made between the hazard maps obtained for Italy with the Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) technique, using two approaches for the definition of the seismic…
Prediction of the Kamchatka July 29, 2025, earthquake by the evolution of low-magnitude seismicity recovered using waveform cross-correlation at IMS seismic arrays
Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies, including seismic hazard assessment. We assess the effect of declustering on the frequency-magnitude distribution of mainshocks. In particular, we examine the dependence of the b-value of declustered catalogs on the choice of declustering approach and algorithm-specific parameters. Using the catalog of earthquakes in California since 1980, we show that the b-value decreases by up to 30% due to declustering with respect …
We present the results of a response of global seismicity to St. Patrick's Day (March 17) geomagnetic storms in 2013 and 2015, which occurred during rather similar solar flux levels and nearly identical storm sudden commencement times. A similar pattern of most substantial earthquake occurrence after storms is revealed. Namely, with a time delay of ~30 and ~39 days after storm onsets in 2013 and 2015, respectively, the strong crust earthquakes occurred at continental areas in Iran (M7.7, April 16, 2013) and Nepal (M7.8, April 25, 2015). Then, with a time delay of ~68 and ~74 days after storm o…
The 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, Japan revisited: Insights from Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Seismicity Parameters
Farhangian University（法尔干大学）；Ankara University（安卡拉大学）；University of Beira Interior（贝拉内陆大学）；Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo（东京大学大气海洋研究所）
The presence of topography influences the seismic ground motion and may result in strong amplifications, generally at the top of hills and reliefs. The increasing urbanization of hills requires an accurate estimation of these effects even in areas of moderate seismicity. The simplified coefficients provided by the Eurocodes8 do not depend on the frequency and underestimate the amplification in many situations, which justifies the development of new methods based on easily accessible data. The city of Menton, located in the southeast of France, between the Alps and the Ligurian basin, is one of…
The State of Tripura lies in northeast India which is considered to be one of the most seismically active regions of the world. In the present study, a realistic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) of Tripura State based on improved seismogenic sources considering layered polygonal sources corresponding to hypo-central depth range of 0 to 25 km, 25 to 70 km and 70 to 180 km, respectively and data driven selection of suitable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in a logic tree framework is presented. Analyses have been carried out by formulating a layered seismogenic source zo…
The Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method reliably and realistically simulates the suite of earthquake ground motions that may impact civil populations as well as their heritage buildings. The modeling technique is developed from comprehensive physical knowledge of the seismic source process, the propagation of earthquake waves and their combined interactions with site effects. NDSHA effectively accounts for the tensor nature of earthquake ground motions formally described as the tensor product of the earthquake source functions and the Green Functions of the pathway. NDSH…
The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events. We show that pattern recognition techniques, which are designed in a formal and testable way, may provide significant space-time constraints about impending strong earthquakes. This information, when combined with physically sound methods for ground shaking computation, like the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), may produce effectively preventive seismic ha…
Effects of stochastic and natural seismic noise on the performance of waveform cross-correlation used to recover low-magnitude seismicity prior to the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka earthquake
In this work we have discovered that the global seismic activity undergoes a modulation with the period of 54 min. We assume that the modulation is caused by the fundamental spheroidal oscillations of the Earth 0S2. The hidden 54-min periodicity of earthquakes was revealed by analyzing of earthquake catalogs using the method of epoch superposition and the spectral method. Initially we discovered some signs of the impact of 0S2 oscillations on the earthquakes accidentally when searching for an antipodal effect of the strong earthquakes. Subsequently we found independent evidence in favor of our…
The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that …
