模拟地震活动与观测地震活动的比较
On comparison of simulated and observed seismicity
摘要：
地震活动性数值模拟在过去的二十年中得到了成功的发展和应用。目前，一般的建模理论和计算技术的进步提供了广泛的选择，模拟地震和地震事件的各种震源机制，占块状结构的岩体，包裹体，断层，裂缝，复杂的接触条件和岩石的各种力学性质。同时，在实际应用中，输入的数据是有限的、不确定的。观测到的地震活动数据也往往受到一些参数的限制，比如坐标和时间。本文的目的是同意的输入和输出数据，使用和提供的数值模拟，与不确定的和有限的数据的直接观察。对于输入参数，我们建议他们的最小集，这符合常用的数据。对于输出地震参数，我们区分三个主要的组，这是由现场观测提供的。第一组包括关于事件位置分布的共同（最小）数据。这些分布对于改进问题的几何特征的输入数据具有特殊价值。第二组使用事件震级的数据（也是通常可用的数据）。这些分布对于评估强事件的风险是非常必要的。第三组采用关于事件源机制的数据。它基于由先进的采矿地震系统提供的地震矩/地震势张量。该组包括事件源的几何参数的分布（节面的取向，B、P和T方向）。在建立和使用应力与地震活动性之间的联系时，这一点尤为重要。文中以煤层长壁开采为例进行了说明。
英文摘要：
Numerical simulation of seismicity has been successfully developed and used for the two last decades. Presently, the general theory of modeling and the progress in computational techniques provide wide options for simulation of seismic and aseismic events with various source mechanisms accounting for blocky structure of rock mass, inclusions, faults, cracks, complicated contact conditions and various mechanical properties of rock. Meanwhile, in practical applications, the input data are limited and uncertain. The data on observed seismicity are also often limited with a few parameters, like coordinates and time. The paper aims to agree the input and output data, used in and provided by numerical simulations, with uncertain and limited data of direct observations. For the input parameters, we suggest their minimal set, which complies with commonly available data. For output seismic parameters, we distinguish three major groups, which are provided by field observations. The first group includes the common (minimal) data on distributions of the event location. These distributions are of special value for improving the input data on geometrical features of a problem. The second group employs the data (commonly available, as well) on the event magnitude. These distributions are of exceptional need for evaluating the risk of strong events. The third group employs data on the event source mechanism. It is based on the tensor of seismic moment/potency, provided by advanced mining seismic systems. This group includes distributions of the geometrical parameters of the event source (orientation of nodal planes, B, P and T directions). It is especially important when establishing and using the connection between stresses and seismicity. The exposition is illustrated by considering an example of long-wall mining in a coal seam.
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