arXiv 2511.030732025-11q-bio.PE

在随机传播下的进化：突变率调节因子

Evolution under Stochastic Transmission: Mutation-Rate Modifiers

Stanford University（斯坦福大学）

Elisa Heinrich-Mora, Marcus Feldman

备注：: 26 pages, 2 figures

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AI总结：

研究在随机传播下突变率调节因子对进化方向的影响，通过引入随机突变率波动改变选择压力。

摘要：

对大规模种群的进化分析通常通过在时间上变化的选择压力来引入随机性，同时将遗传传递视为固定不变。然而，对传递本身中的随机性关注较少。我们研究了一个受选择的位点，其等位基因为A和a，在恒定选择下，该位点与一个中性调节位点连锁，该位点的等位基因M1和M2控制从A到a的突变率。在恒定传递下，还原原理适用：在接近突变-选择平衡处，当M1固定且突变率为u1时，如果M2相关的突变率u2小于u1，则罕见等位基因M2会入侵，但如果u2大于u1，则无法入侵。这一结果适用于单倍体和二倍体种群，并且与重组无关，重组只影响进化变化的速率，而不影响方向。我们通过允许入侵调节因子相关的突变率在世代间随机波动来扩展这一框架。在这一随机设置中，入侵不再仅由平均突变率决定。相反，它取决于突变率的时间分布、选择位点的选择强度以及调节因子与目标位点之间的重组率。随机传递和重组因此不仅重新标定基于还原原理的确定性预测，还可能改变对调节等位基因的选择方向。

英文摘要：

Evolutionary analyses of large populations commonly incorporate stochasticity through temporal variation in selection while treating genetic transmission as fixed. Much less attention has been given to stochasticity in transmission itself. We study a selected locus with alleles $A$ and $a$ under constant selection, linked to a neutral modifier locus whose alleles $M_1$ and $M_2$ control the mutation rate from $A$ to $a$. Under constant transmission, the Reduction Principle applies: near a mutation--selection balance where $M_1$ is fixed with mutation rate $u_1$, a rare allele $M_2$ invades if its associated rate $u_2$ is smaller than $u_1$, but cannot invade if $u_2$ is larger than $u_1$. This result holds for both haploid and diploid populations and is independent of recombination, which affects only the rate, not the direction, of evolutionary change. We extend this framework by allowing the mutation rate associated with the invading modifier to fluctuate randomly across generations. In this stochastic setting, invasion is no longer determined by mean mutation rates alone. Instead, it depends on the temporal distribution of mutation rates, the strength of selection at the selected locus, and the recombination rate between modifier and target. Stochastic transmission and recombination therefore do not merely rescale deterministic predictions based on the Reduction Principle; they can alter the direction of selection on modifier alleles.

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