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arXiv 2402.01489math.OC
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共形逆优化

Conformal Inverse Optimization

Bo Lin, Erick Delage, Timothy C. Y. Chan

AI总结:

本文提出共形逆优化方法,通过构建未知参数的不确定性集合并求解鲁棒优化模型,克服传统逆优化点估计在决策规定中质量低且不符合人类直觉的问题,并提供可证明的解质量保证。

摘要:

逆优化已被越来越多地用于基于决策数据估计优化模型中的未知参数。我们表明,在预测性设置中,当估计的参数被用于规定新决策时,这种点估计是不充分的。所规定的决策可能质量低下,且与人类直觉不一致,因此不太可能被采纳。为应对这一挑战,我们提出共形逆优化,该方法旨在学习未知参数的不确定性集合,然后求解一个鲁棒优化模型以规定新决策。在温和假设下,我们证明我们的方法在解质量上享有可证明的保证,该解质量同时使用真实参数和决策者对未知参数的感知进行评估。与经典逆优化相比,我们的方法展现出强大的实证性能。

英文摘要:

Inverse optimization has been increasingly used to estimate unknown parameters in an optimization model based on decision data. We show that such a point estimation is insufficient in a prescriptive setting where the estimated parameters are used to prescribe new decisions. The prescribed decisions may be low-quality and misaligned with human intuition and thus are unlikely to be adopted. To tackle this challenge, we propose conformal inverse optimization, which seeks to learn an uncertainty set for the unknown parameters and then solve a robust optimization model to prescribe new decisions. Under mild assumptions, we show that our method enjoys provable guarantees on solution quality, as evaluated using both the ground-truth parameters and the decision maker's perception of the unknown parameters. Our method demonstrates strong empirical performance compared to classic inverse optimization.

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