The coefficients in a second order parabolic linear stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) are estimated from multiple spatially localised measurements. Assuming that the spatial resolution tends to zero and the number of measurements is non-decreasing, the rate of convergence for each coefficient depends on its differential order and is faster for higher order coefficients. Based on an explicit analysis of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space of a general stochastic evolution equation, a Gaussian lower bound scheme is introduced. As a result, minimax optimality of the rates as well as sufficient and necessary conditions for consistent estimation are established.
Bielefeld Universität（比勒费尔德大学）；Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences（马克斯·普朗克数学科学研究所）；Institute of Mathematics of NAS of Ukraine（乌克兰国家科学院数学研究所）
The convergence of stochastic interacting particle systems in the mean-field limit to solutions of conservative stochastic partial differential equations is established, with optimal rate of convergence. As a second main result, a quantitative central limit theorem for such SPDEs is derived, again, with optimal rate of convergence. The results apply, in particular, to the convergence in the mean-field scaling of stochastic gradient descent dynamics in overparametrized, shallow neural networks to solutions of SPDEs. It is shown that the inclusion of fluctuations in the limiting SPDE improves th…
We consider the estimation of a non-linear reaction term in the stochastic heat or more generally in a semi-linear stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). Consistent inference is achieved by studying a small diffusivity level, which is realistic in applications. Our main result is a central limit theorem for the estimation error of a parametric estimator, from which confidence intervals can be constructed. Statistical efficiency is demonstrated by establishing local asymptotic normality. The estimation method is extended to local observations in time and space, which allows for non-pa…
We study parameter estimation problem for diagonalizable stochastic partial differential equations driven by a multiplicative fractional noise with any Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1)$. Two classes of estimators are investigated: traditional maximum likelihood type estimators, and a new class called closed-form exact estimators. Finally the general results are applied to stochastic heat equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion.
The coefficient function of the leading differential operator is estimated from observations of a linear stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). The estimation is based on continuous time observations which are localised in space. For the asymptotic regime with fixed time horizon and with the spatial resolution of the observations tending to zero, we provide rate-optimal estimators and establish scaling limits of the deterministic PDE and of the SPDE on growing domains. The estimators are robust to lower order perturbations of the underlying differential operator and achieve the param…
We consider parametric estimation for a parabolic linear second order stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) from high frequency data which are observed in time and space. By using thinned data obtained from the high frequency data, adaptive estimators of the coefficient parameters including the volatility parameter of a parabolic linear SPDE model are proposed. Moreover, we give some examples and simulation results of the adaptive estimators of the SPDE model based on the high frequency data.
We consider parameter estimation for a linear parabolic second-order stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) in two space dimensions driven by two types $Q$-Wiener processes based on high frequency data in time and space. We first estimate the parameters which appear in the coordinate process of the SPDE using the minimum contrast estimator based on the thinned data with respect to space, and then construct an approximate coordinate process of the SPDE. Furthermore, we propose estimators of the coefficient parameters of the SPDE utilizing the approximate coordinate process based on the…
This work contributes to the limited literature on estimating the diffusivity or drift coefficient of nonlinear SPDEs driven by additive noise. Assuming that the solution is measured locally in space and over a finite time interval, we show that the augmented maximum likelihood estimator introduced in Altmeyer, Reiss (2020) retains its asymptotic properties when used for semilinear SPDEs that satisfy some abstract, and verifiable, conditions. The proofs of asymptotic results are based on splitting the solution in linear and nonlinear parts and fine regularity properties in $L^p$-spaces. The ob…
We study parameter estimation for a linear parabolic second-order stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) in two space dimensions with a small dispersion parameter using high frequency data with respect to time and space. We set two types of $Q$-Wiener processes as a driving noise. We provide minimum contrast estimators of the coefficient parameters of the SPDE appearing in the coordinate process of the SPDE based on the thinned data in space, and approximate the coordinate process based on the thinned data in time. Moreover, we propose an estimator of the drift parameter using the fac…
Parameter estimation for a parabolic linear stochastic partial differential equation in one space dimension is studied observing the solution field on a discrete grid in a fixed bounded domain. Considering an infill asymptotic regime in both coordinates, we prove central limit theorems for realized quadratic variations based on temporal and spatial increments as well as on double increments in time and space. Resulting method of moments estimators for the diffusivity and the volatility parameter inherit the asymptotic normality and can be constructed robustly with respect to the sampling frequ…
As a concrete setting where stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are able to model real phenomena, we propose a stochastic Meinhardt model for cell repolarisation and study how parameter estimation techniques developed for simple linear SPDE models apply in this situation. We establish the existence of mild SPDE solutions and we investigate the impact of the driving noise process on pattern formation in the solution. We then pursue estimation of the diffusion term and show asymptotic normality for our estimator as the space resolution becomes finer. The finite sample performance i…
The main goal of this paper is to study the parameter estimation problem, using the Bayesian methodology, for the drift coefficient of some linear (parabolic) SPDEs driven by a multiplicative noise of special structure. We take the spectral approach by assuming that one path of the first $N$ Fourier modes of the solution is continuously observed over a finite time interval. First, we show that the model is regular and fits into classical local asymptotic normality framework, and thus the MLE and the Bayesian estimators are weakly consistent, asymptotically normal, efficient, and asymptotically…
The aim of the present paper is to estimate and control the Type I and Type II errors of a simple hypothesis testing problem of the drift/viscosity coefficient for stochastic fractional heat equation driven by additive noise. Assuming that one path of the first $N$ Fourier modes of the solution is observed continuously over a finite time interval $[0,T]$, we propose a new class of rejection regions and provide computable thresholds for $T$, and $N$, that guarantee that the statistical errors are smaller than a given upper bound. The considered tests are of likelihood ratio type. The main ideas…
We consider a parameter estimation problem for one dimensional stochastic heat equations, when data is sampled discretely in time or spatial component. We prove that, the real valued parameter next to the Laplacian (the drift), and the constant parameter in front of the noise (the volatility) can be consistently estimated under somewhat surprisingly minimal information. Namely, it is enough to observe the solution at a fixed time and on a discrete spatial grid, or at a fixed space point and at discrete time instances of a finite interval, assuming that the mesh-size goes to zero. The proposed …
The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the drift coefficient for fractional stochastic heat equation driven by an additive space-time noise. We consider the traditional for stochastic partial differential equations statistical experiment when the measurements are performed in the spectral domain, and in contrast to the existing literature, we study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood (type) estimators (MLE) when both, the number of Fourier modes and the time go to infinity. In the first part of the paper we consi…
We deal with parametric estimation for a parabolic linear second order stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with a small dispersion parameter based on high frequency data which are observed in time and space. By using the thinned data with respect to space obtained from the high frequency data, the minimum contrast estimators of two coefficient parameters of the SPDE are proposed. With these estimators and the thinned data with respect to time obtained from the high frequency data, we construct an approximation of the coordinate process of the SPDE. Using the approximate coordinate …
Motivated by problems from statistical analysis for discretely sampled SPDEs, first we derive central limit theorems for higher order finite differences applied to stochastic process with arbitrary finitely regular paths. These results are proved by using the notion of $Δ$-power variations, introduced herein, along with the Hölder-Zygmund norms. Consequently, we prove a new central limit theorem for $Δ$-power variations of the iterated integrals of a fractional Brownian motion (fBm). These abstract results, besides being of independent interest, in the second part of the paper are applied to e…
We study the parameter estimation for parabolic, linear, second-order, stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) observing a mild solution on a discrete grid in time and space. A high-frequency regime is considered where the mesh of the grid in the time variable goes to zero. Focusing on volatility estimation, we provide an explicit and easy to implement method of moments estimator based on squared increments. The estimator is consistent and admits a central limit theorem. This is established moreover for the joint estimation of the integrated volatility and parameters in the different…
Small noise asymptotics for linear parabolic SPDEs in two space dimensions with unknown damping factors
Graduate School of Engineering Science, The University of Osaka（大阪大学工学研究科）；Center for Mathematical Modeling and Data Science (MMDS), The University of Osaka（大阪大学数学建模与数据科学中心）；Graduate School of Maritime Sciences, Kobe University（神户大学海事科学研究科）；CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency（日本科学技术振兴机构Crest项目）；Graduate School of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Tokyo（东京大学理学研究科数学系）
We study four systems and their interactions. First, we formulate a unified system of coupled forward-backward stochastic partial differential equations (FB-SPDEs) with Levy jumps, whose drift, diffusion, and jump coefficients may involve partial differential operators. A solution to the FB-SPDEs is defined by a 4-tuple general dimensional random vector-field process evolving in time together with position parameters over a domain (e.g., a hyperbox or a manifold). Under an infinite sequence of generalized local linear growth and Lipschitz conditions, the well-posedness of an adapted 4-tuple st…
Nonparametric estimation for semilinear SPDEs, namely stochastic reaction-diffusion equations in one space dimension, is studied. We consider observations of the solution field on a discrete grid in time and space with infill asymptotics in both coordinates. Firstly, we derive a nonparametric estimator for the reaction function of the underlying equation. The estimate is chosen from a finite-dimensional function space based on a least squares criterion. Oracle inequalities provide conditions for the estimator to achieve the usual nonparametric rate of convergence. Adaptivity is provided via mo…
We derive the optimal signed variable in general case kernels for the classical statistic density estimation, which are some generalization of the famous Epanechnikov's ones.
Sparse linear discriminant analysis via penalized optimal scoring is a successful tool for classification in high-dimensional settings. While the variable selection consistency of sparse optimal scoring has been established, the corresponding prediction and estimation consistency results have been lacking. We bridge this gap by providing probabilistic bounds on out-of-sample prediction error and estimation error of multi-class penalized optimal scoring allowing for diverging number of classes.
We focus on the nonparametric density estimation problem with directional data. We propose a new rule for bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation. Our procedure is automatic, fully data-driven and adaptive to the smoothness degree of the density. We obtain an oracle inequality and optimal rates of convergence for the L2 error. Our theoretical results are illustrated with simulations.
In this paper we develop rate--optimal estimation procedures in the problem of estimating the $L_p$--norm, $p\in (0, \infty)$ of a probability density from independent observations. The density is assumed to be defined on $R^d$, $d\geq 1$ and to belong to a ball in the anisotropic Nikolskii space. We adopt the minimax approach and construct rate--optimal estimators in the case of integer $p\geq 2$. We demonstrate that, depending on parameters of Nikolskii's class and the norm index $p$, the risk asymptotics ranges from inconsistency to $\sqrt{n}$--estimation. The results in this paper compleme…
We provide new general kernel selection rules thanks to penalized least-squares criteria. We derive optimal oracle inequalities using adequate concentration tools. We also investigate the problem of minimal penalty as described in [BM07].
We study the estimation of the reach, an ubiquitous regularity parameter in manifold estimation and geometric data analysis. Given an i.i.d. sample over an unknown $d$-dimensional $\mathcal{C}^k$-smooth submanifold of $\mathbb{R}^D$, we provide optimal nonasymptotic bounds for the estimation of its reach. We build upon a formulation of the reach in terms of maximal curvature on one hand, and geodesic metric distortion on the other hand. The derived rates are adaptive, with rates depending on whether the reach of $M$ arises from curvature or from a bottleneck structure. In the process, we deriv…
Motivated by finance and technical applications, the objective of this paper is to consider adaptive estimation of regression and density distribution based on Fourier-Legendre expansion, and construction of confidence intervals - also adaptive. The estimators are asymptotically optimal and adaptive in the sense that they can adapt to unknown smoothness.
