社会保障改革对福利的影响：跨代、性别和就业类型谁受益，谁损失？
The Impact of the Social Security Reforms on Welfare: Who benefits and Who loses across Generations, Gender, and Employment Type?
摘要：
本研究使用世代交叠模型，以性别和就业类型为不同的四种主体类型，对老龄化加剧、政府负债率居发达国家首位的日本的社会保障改革的效果进行了定量分析。我们发现，在不延长退休年龄的情况下引入社会保障改革，提高了后代的福利，而医疗和长期护理支出的共同负担率的改革，特别是，显着降低了当前退休和工作一代的低收入群体（女性和兼职人员）的福利。相比之下，降低养老金替代率的改革导致全职人员福利的更大下降。这些改革与延长退休年龄相结合，预计将使当前工作一代的福利比没有改革的水平提高2- 9%。
英文摘要：
We quantitatively explore the impact of social security reforms in Japan, which is facing rapid aging and the highest government debt among developed countries, using an overlapping generations model with four types of agents distinguished by gender and employment type. We find that introducing social security reforms without extending the retirement age raises the welfare of future generations, while reforms with rising copayment rates for medical and long-term care expenditures, in particular, significantly lowers the welfare of low-income groups (females and part-timers) of the current retired and working generations. In contrast, reforms reducing the pension replacement rate lead to a greater decline in the welfare of full-timers. The combination of these reforms and the extension of the retirement age is expected to improve the welfare of the current working generations by 2--9 % over the level without reforms.
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