确定母亲就业的潜在结构：德国父母福利改革的证据
Identifying Latent Structures in Maternal Employment: Evidence on the German Parental Benefit Reform
摘要：
本文确定了潜在的群体结构的影响，母亲就业的C-Lasso，最近开发的，纯粹的数据驱动的分类方法。此外，我评估如何在2007年推出的慷慨的德国父母福利改革的影响，利用识别策略，结合尖锐的断点回归设计和假设检验的预测就业概率的不同集群组。C-Lasso方法使母亲之间的异质就业效应成为可能，这些母亲被分类为先验未知数量的集群组，每个组都有自己的特定组效应。使用新的德国行政数据，C-Lasso确定了改革前后三个不同的集群组。我的研究结果揭示了显着的未观察到的异质性，在产妇就业和改革的影响，确定集群组的就业模式不同。
英文摘要：
This paper identifies latent group structures in the effect of motherhood on employment by employing the C-Lasso, a recently developed, purely data-driven classification method. Moreover, I assess how the introduction of the generous German parental benefit reform in 2007 affects the different cluster groups by taking advantage of an identification strategy that combines the sharp regression discontinuity design and hypothesis testing of predicted employment probabilities. The C-Lasso approach enables heterogeneous employment effects across mothers, which are classified into an a priori unknown number of cluster groups, each with its own group-specific effect. Using novel German administrative data, the C-Lasso identifies three different cluster groups pre- and post-reform. My findings reveal marked unobserved heterogeneity in maternal employment and that the reform affects the identified cluster groups' employment patterns differently.
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