当你已经倒下时踢你：紧缩对犯罪的多管齐下的影响
Kicking You When You're Already Down: The Multipronged Impact of Austerity on Crime
摘要：
2012年英国福利改革法案实施了一系列大幅削减福利的措施，这不成比例地影响了事先较贫穷的地区。在本文中，我们提供了这些紧缩措施对犯罪的两个不同但互补的要素-犯罪率和犯罪的研究较少的集中度-在2011-2015年期间在英格兰和威尔士的影响的第一个证据，并记录了四个新的事实。首先，受福利改革影响较大的地区犯罪率上升，这是暴力犯罪上升的结果。其次，由于福利改革，暴力和财产犯罪都变得更加集中在一个地区。第三，在此期间，犯罪率上升首当其冲的是事先更贫困的社区。第四，我们没有发现任何证据表明福利改革增加了累犯率，这表明我们发现的犯罪变化可能是由新的罪犯推动的。结合这些结果，我们的文件明确的证据表明，在英国政府的社会福利，这加强了直接的不平等恶化的影响，该计划的紧缩计划的核心福利改革的负面溢出。在一个特征房价模型的指导下，我们计算了削减所隐含的福利效应，以提供一个金融量化的改革的影响。我们记录了该政策隐含的福利损失-由公众承担-远远超过了政府金库的节省。
英文摘要：
The UK Welfare Reform Act 2012 imposed a series of deep welfare cuts, which disproportionately affected ex-ante poorer areas. In this paper, we provide the first evidence of the impact of these austerity measures on two different but complementary elements of crime -- the crime rate and the less-studied concentration of crime -- over the period 2011-2015 in England and Wales, and document four new facts. First, areas more exposed to the welfare reforms experience increased levels of crime, an effect driven by a rise in violent crime. Second, both violent and property crime become more concentrated within an area due to the welfare reforms. Third, it is ex-ante more deprived neighborhoods that bear the brunt of the crime increases over this period. Fourth, we find no evidence that the welfare reforms increased recidivism, suggesting that the changes in crime we find are likely driven by new criminals. Combining these results, we document unambiguous evidence of a negative spillover of the welfare reforms at the heart of the UK government's austerity program on social welfare, which reinforced the direct inequality-worsening effect of this program. Guided by a hedonic house price model, we calculate the welfare effects implied by the cuts in order to provide a financial quantification of the impact of the reform. We document an implied welfare loss of the policy -- borne by the public -- that far exceeds the savings made to government coffers.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
