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arXiv 2109.08099econ.GNq-fin.EC
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中国潜力与Steady Growth的经济学分析--基于中国二元制度经济学的实践

An Economic Analysis on the Potential and Steady Growth of China: a Practice Based on the Dualistic System Economics in China

Tianyong Zhou

摘要:

现有的发展经济学和转型经济学理论可能不足以准确解释和分析中国这样的二元经济体制,甚至可能存在缺陷。中国是一个二元结构和二元体制转轨的国家。经济体制改革带来了长期的转型。由于二元体制,要素配置受计划或行政与市场的二元调节,信号失真将是普遍存在的。从均衡安全增长的角度看,人口出生、人口流动、土地交易和住房供给等制度扭曲,随着出口的变化,可能对生产需求产生重大影响,包括消费的反复收缩、出口竞争成本的增加、城乡收入差距的扩大、居民收入的转移和消费的挤出。鉴于世界范围内收入大于支出的保守型模型向支出大于收入的债务型模型的转变以及宽松货币政策的需要,我们必须探索一个包含债务和土地资产变量的影响货币供应量和价格变动的基本模型,特别是在当前负债率高且有可能持续上升的中国。基于这种二元制度经济学的逻辑框架和分析方法,通过建立模型,初步形成了一个测算体系。

英文摘要:

The existing theorization of development economics and transition economics is probably inadequate and perhaps even flawed to accurately explain and analyze a dual economic system such as that in China. China is a country in the transition of dual structure and system. The reform of its economic system has brought off a long period of transformation. The allocation of factors is subjected to the dualistic regulation of planning or administration and market due to the dualistic system, and thus the signal distortion will be a commonly seen existence. From the perspective of balanced and safe growth, the institutional distortions of population birth, population flow, land transaction and housing supply, with the changing of export, may cause great influences on the production demand, which includes the iterative contraction of consumption, the increase of export competitive cost, the widening of urban-rural income gap, the transferring of residents' income and the crowding out of consumption. In view of the worldwide shift from a conservative model with more income than expenditure to the debt-based model with more expenditure than income and the need for loose monetary policy, we must explore a basic model that includes variables of debt and land assets that affecting money supply and price changes, especially in China, where the current debt ratio is high and is likely to rise continuously. Based on such a logical framework of dualistic system economics and its analysis method, a preliminary calculation system is formed through the establishment of models.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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