追赶与回归：经济趋同与回流移民

中文摘要 AI 辅助

技术工人的回流移民为原籍国带来了许多重要益处。回流移民的可能性被认为取决于相对经济机会，但关于其相对重要性的定量证据仍然有限。在此，我们利用GitHub上软件开发者的公开资料，在2012年至2026年间跨越十个波次进行地理编码，构建了一个包含超过27万名国际流动者的面板数据，从而衡量回流移民率。在离开后的五年内，8.8%的流动者已经返回。原籍国的回流率从不足1%到16%不等。采用带有走廊固定效应的风险模型显示，来自经历更大追赶式增长国家的移民以显著更高的比率返回。国家对的不可变特征，如文化或地理距离，无法解释这一估计结果。我们利用国际货币基金组织的增长预测来预测未来的回流率，例如，预测到2035年印度的回流率将上升12%，中国的将上升7%。这一差异主要由印度国内更快的预期增长驱动。随着发展中经济体缩小与移民定居目的地之间的收入差距，它们将收回更多流失的工人。

英文摘要

The return migration of skilled workers provides origin countries many important benefits. The likelihood of return migration is thought to depend on relative economic opportunities, but quantitative evidence of its relative importance remains limited. Here we measure return migration rates using the public profiles of software developers on GitHub, geocoded across ten waves between 2012 and 2026, in a panel containing more than 270,000 international movers. Within five years of departure, 8.8% of movers have returned. Origin-country rates range from under 1\% to 16\%. Hazard models with corridor fixed effects show that migrants whose home countries experience greater catch-up growth return at significantly higher rates. Immutable features of country pairs such as cultural or geographic distance do not explain the estimate. We forecast future return rates using IMF growth projections, predicting, for example, that India's return rate will rise 12\% by 2035 and China's 7\%. The difference is driven mostly by India's faster projected growth at home. As developing economies close income gaps with the destinations their emigrants have settled in, they recover more of the workers they lost.

发表机构

• ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies（布达佩斯罗兰大学经济与社会研究中心）
• Center for Collective Learning, Corvinus Institute of Advanced Studies, Corvinus University of Budapest（布达佩斯考文纽斯大学高级研究学院集体学习中心）
• ELTE Centre for Social Sciences（布达佩斯罗兰大学社会科学研究中心）
• Complexity Science Hub, Vienna（维也纳复杂科学中心）

机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。