技术互动重塑中国煤电脱碳的经济学
Technology interactions reshape the economics of China's coal power decarbonization
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文开发考虑技术相互作用的优化框架，评估中国1885座燃煤电厂的多种脱碳措施，发现技术相互作用影响脱碳成本与减排量，为煤电脱碳及相关政策提供更一致依据。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
对现有燃煤电厂进行脱碳可助力近期气候减缓，但识别成本效益高的改造策略会因减缓技术间的相互作用而变得复杂。本文开发了一种考虑技术相互作用的优化框架，该框架联合评估中国1885座燃煤电厂的节能、生物质混烧和碳捕集情况，同时考虑电厂异质性以及共享的生物质和CO₂封存资源。研究发现，技术相互作用既改变了减缓成本，也改变了单项措施对应的减排量，从而改变了电厂层面的成本最优技术组合和边际减排成本曲线。每年约1.2吉吨CO₂可在负边际成本下实现减排，而达到碳中和则需要56美元/吨CO₂的边际减排成本。逐步深化的减排会使成本最优组合从节能转向生物质混烧，最终转向碳捕集，且生物质与碳捕集结合可实现净负排放。因此，明确考虑减缓技术间的相互作用，为评估煤电脱碳、协调改造投资、基础设施建设及气候政策提供了更一致的基础。
英文摘要
Decarbonizing existing coal-fired power plants can contribute to near-term climate mitigation, but identifying cost-effective retrofit strategies is complicated by interactions among mitigation technologies. Here we develop an interaction-aware optimization framework that jointly evaluates energy conservation, biomass co-firing, and carbon capture across 1,885 coal-fired power plants in China while accounting for plant heterogeneity and shared biomass and CO2 storage resources. We find that technology interactions alter both mitigation costs and the emission reductions attributable to individual measures, thereby changing cost-optimal technology portfolios and marginal abatement cost curve at the fleet level. Approximately 1.2 Gt CO2 yr-1 can be mitigated at negative marginal cost, while reaching carbon neutrality requires a marginal abatement cost of US$56 t CO2-1. Progressively deeper mitigation shifts the cost-optimal portfolio from energy conservation toward biomass co-firing and ultimately carbon capture, with biomass combined with carbon capture enabling net-negative emissions. Explicitly accounting for interactions among mitigation technologies therefore provides a more consistent basis for evaluating coal-power decarbonization and coordinating retrofit investment, infrastructure development, and climate policy.
