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arXiv 2103.10212cs.CR
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贝叶斯攻击图推理与灵敏度分析的随机模拟技术

Stochastic Simulation Techniques for Inference and Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Attack Graphs

Isaac Matthews, Sadegh Soudjani, Aad van Moorsel

摘要:

漏洞扫描与有关计算机网络的信息相结合,可用于创建攻击图,这是一个模型,说明如何在攻击中使用网络元素以达到网络中的特定状态或目标。这些图可以通过将它们转化为贝叶斯攻击图来概率地理解,从而可以定量分析大型网络的安全性。在发生攻击的情况下,图上的概率根据发现的证据而变化(例如,通过入侵检测系统或主机活动的知识)。由于这种情况下很难通过直接计算来解决,我们讨论和比较三种随机模拟技术,根据证据动态更新概率,并比较它们的速度和准确性。从我们的实验中,我们得出结论,似然加权是最有效的大多数用途。我们还考虑了BAGs的灵敏度分析,以确定最关键的节点保护的网络和解决的不确定性问题的先验分配给节点。由于敏感性分析很容易成为计算昂贵,我们提出并证明了一个有效的敏感性分析方法,利用随机推理的定量关系。

英文摘要:

A vulnerability scan combined with information about a computer network can be used to create an attack graph, a model of how the elements of a network could be used in an attack to reach specific states or goals in the network. These graphs can be understood probabilistically by turning them into Bayesian attack graphs, making it possible to quantitatively analyse the security of large networks. In the event of an attack, probabilities on the graph change depending on the evidence discovered (e.g., by an intrusion detection system or knowledge of a host's activity). Since such scenarios are difficult to solve through direct computation, we discuss and compare three stochastic simulation techniques for updating the probabilities dynamically based on the evidence and compare their speed and accuracy. From our experiments we conclude that likelihood weighting is most efficient for most uses. We also consider sensitivity analysis of BAGs, to identify the most critical nodes for protection of the network and solve the uncertainty problem in the assignment of priors to nodes. Since sensitivity analysis can easily become computationally expensive, we present and demonstrate an efficient sensitivity analysis approach that exploits a quantitative relation with stochastic inference.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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