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arXiv 2102.07838cs.LGcs.AI
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分析和预测业务流程的深度学习方法比较

A Comparison of Deep-Learning Methods for Analysing and Predicting Business Processes

University of Essex(埃塞克斯大学);Ulm University(乌尔姆大学)

Ishwar Venugopal, Jessica Töllich, Michael Fairbank, Ansgar Scherp

摘要:

卷积神经网络(CNN)和长短期记忆(LSTM)等深度学习模型已成功用于流程挖掘任务。与传统方法相比,它们在不同的预测任务中取得了更好的性能。我们通过测试图神经网络(GNN)的四种不同变体和具有dropout的完全连接多层感知器(MLP)来扩展现有的研究内容,用于预测下一个流程活动的性质和时间戳。与现有的研究相比,我们评估了我们的模型在过程的不同阶段的性能,由事件数量的四分位数和案例持续时间的归一化四分之一确定。这为预测模型的性能提供了新的见解,因为它们在业务流程的不同阶段表现不同。有趣的是,我们的实验表明,简单的MLP在这两个预测任务中的表现往往优于更复杂的深度学习模型。我们认为,需要小心时,在一个过程的不同阶段应用自动化的过程预测技术。我们进一步认为,研究人员应该反映他们的结果与强大的基线方法,如简单的MLP。

英文摘要:

Deep-learning models such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have been successfully used for process-mining tasks. They have achieved better performance for different predictive tasks than traditional approaches. We extend the existing body of research by testing four different variants of Graph Neural Networks (GNN) and a fully connected Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) with dropout for the tasks of predicting the nature and timestamp of the next process activity. In contrast to existing studies, we evaluate our models' performance at different stages of a process, determined by quartiles of the number of events and normalized quarters of the case duration. This provides new insights into the performance of a prediction model, as they behave differently at different stages of a business-process. Interestingly, our experiments show that the simple MLP often outperforms more sophisticated deep-learning models in both prediction tasks. We argue that care needs to be taken when applying automated process-prediction techniques at different stages of a process. We further argue that researchers should reflect their results with strong baselines methods like simple MLPs.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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