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arXiv 2011.12062astro-ph.SR
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活动区耀斑爆发早期探测耀斑生产力的可能性

On the possibility to probe the flare productivity of an active region on the early stage of emergence

Alexander S. Kutsenko, Valentina I. Abramenko, Olga K. Kutsenko

摘要:

如何预测处于早期爆发阶段的活动区未来的耀斑生产力是一个长期存在的问题。本研究的目的是探讨光球磁场的两个参数,都来自在出现阶段的AR,并将它们与耀斑生产力的发达的AR。参数为:(i)磁功率谱在出现阶段的指数(谱的斜率),和(ii)通量出现率。对243个新出现的AR的分析表明,磁功率指数在一天之内从典型的安静太阳区域的值增加到典型的成熟AR的值,而出现进行了几天;经常,增加后,功率指数的值在一些平均值附近波动,波动是几倍小于功率指数的增长在出现开始。对于一个子集的34个耀斑生产AR,我们发现没有相关性的功率谱指数在出现阶段和耀斑指数来自整个间隔的AR的存在盘上。同时,流量出现率与耀斑指数有很好的相关性(Pearson相关系数为0.74)。我们得出结论,高的流量出现率是一个AR在未来产生强耀斑的必要条件,因此,流量出现率可以用来探测未来的耀斑生产力的AR。

英文摘要:

A long-standing problem is to predict the future flare productivity of an active region (AR) when it is on the stage of early emergence. The aim of this study is to probe two parameters of the photospheric magnetic field, both derived during the emergence phase of an AR, and to compare them with the flare productivity of the well-developed AR. The parameters are: (i) the index of the magnetic power spectrum (the slope of the spectrum) on the stage of emergence, and (ii) the flux emergence rate. Analysis of 243 emerging ARs showed that the magnetic power index increases from values typical for quiet-Sun regions to the values typical for mature ARs within a day while the emergence proceeds for several days; frequently, after the increase, the value of the power index undulates around some mean value with fluctuations being several time less than the growth of the power index during the emergence onset. For a subset of 34 flare-productive ARs we found no correlation between the power spectrum index at the stage of emergence and flare index derived from the entire interval of the AR's presence on the disc. At the same time, the flux emergence rate correlates well with the flare index (the Pearson's correlation coefficient is 0.74). We conclude that high flux emergence rate is a necessary condition for an AR to produce strong flares in the future, and so, the flux emergence rate can be used to probe the future flare productivity of the AR.

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