AI 中文总结
本文通过结合多份耀斑目录分析太阳活动区耀斑产率，发现幂律指数α≈2，且高能量耀斑分布变陡，预测X100级超级耀斑复发时间约370年。
AI 中文摘要
太阳活动区是几乎所有重大空间天气事件的来源，因此表征其可观测属性与耀斑产生之间的关系十分重要。本文分析了第23至25太阳周内太阳活动区的耀斑产率，该产率是磁复杂度、黑子面积和太阳周相位的函数。此外，本文还估算了峰值流量频率分布的幂律指数。本文将GOES软X射线事件报告与每日太阳区域摘要（SRS）匹配，以构建可靠的活动区目录，该目录还补充了50年历史的HEK耀斑目录以及太阳轨道器最新发布的STIX耀斑目录，用于估算幂律指数。磁复杂度高的活动区（βγ、βδ、βγδ）仅占所有每日活动区观测的约13%，却产生了绝大多数M级和X级耀斑，表明更大的耀斑不成比例地出现在面积更大的黑子中。所有三个目录的峰值流量频率分布均可由一致的幂律指数α=2.02±0.01表示。然而，对C/X和M/X耀斑比率的分级分析显示，分布随能量升高而显著变陡。将这种变陡拟合为对数正态尾部，并外推至X级阈值以上两个数量级，预测X100级（“卡林顿型”）超级耀斑的复发时间为370⁺²⁹²₋₁₅⁹年，而仅用单一幂律外推的结果约为26年。虽然α≈2为耀斑频率分布提供了有用的全局描述，但变陡的面积-产率关系以及C/X和M/X导出斜率的差异都表明，最高能量耀斑存在缺失。
英文摘要
Solar active regions are the source of virtually all significant space weather events, therefore the relationship between their observable properties and flare production is important to characterize. The flare productivity of solar active regions is analyzed across solar cycles 23--25 as a function of magnetic complexity, sunspot area, and solar-cycle phase. Additionally, the power-law index of the peak flux frequency distribution is estimated. The GOES soft X-ray event reports matched with daily Solar Region Summaries (SRS) are used to create a robust active region catalog. This catalog is supplemented with the 50-year HEK flare catalog and the newly released STIX flare catalog from Solar Orbiter to estimate the power-law index. Magnetically complex active regions ($βγ$, $βδ$, $βγδ$) produce the majority of M- and X-class flares while comprising only $\sim$13\% of all daily active-region observations, showing that larger flares disproportionately occur in larger area sunspots. All three catalogs can be represented with a consistent power-law index of $α= 2.02 \pm 0.01$ for the peak flux frequency distribution. However, a class-by-class analysis of the C/X and M/X flare ratios reveals that the distribution steepens significantly towards higher energies. Fitting this steepening as a lognormal tail and extrapolating two decades beyond the X-class threshold predicts a recurrence time of $370^{+292}_{-159}$~yr for an X100-class (`Carrington-type') superflare, compared to only $\sim$26~yr from a naive single power-law extrapolation. While $α\approx 2$ provides a useful global description of the flare frequency distribution, the steepening area-productivity relation and the divergence between C/X and M/X derived slopes both point to a deficit of the most energetic flares ...
CommentsAccepted in A&A, 7 pages, 6 figures
