We view the classical Lindeberg principle in a Markov process setting to establish a probability approximation framework by the associated Itô's formula and Markov operator. As applications, we study the error bounds of the following three approximations: approximating a family of online stochastic gradient descents (SGDs) by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by multiplicative Brownian motion, Euler-Maruyama (EM) discretization for multi-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stable process, and multivariate normal approximation. All these error bounds are in Wasserstein-1 distance.
We consider the higher-order Markov Chain, and characterize the second order Markov chains admitting every probability distribution vector as a stationary vector. The result is used to construct Markov chains of higher-order with the same property. We also study conditions under which the set of stationary vectors of the Markov chain has a certain affine dimension.
We consider the Markov chain approximations for singular stable-like processes. First we obtain properties of some Markov chains. Then we construct the approximating Markov chains and give a necessary condition for weak convergence of these chains to singular stable-like processes.
In this paper, we use the Markov property introduced in Balan and Ivanoff (J. Theor. Probab. 15, 2002, 553-588) for set-indexed processes and we prove that a Markov prior distribution leads to a Markov posterior distribution. In particular, by proving that a neutral to the right prior distribution leads to a neutral to the right posterior distribution, we extend a fundamental result of Doksum (Ann. Probab. 2,1974, 183-201) to arbitrary sample spaces.
We study the Classical Probability analogue of the dilations of a quantum dynamical semigroup in Quantum Probability. Given a (not necessarily homogeneous) Markov chain in discrete time in a finite state space E, we introduce a second system, an environment, and a deterministic invertible time-homogeneous global evolution of the system E with this environment such that the original Markov evolution of E can be realized by a proper choice of the initial random state of the environment. We also compare this dilations with the dilations of a quantum dynamical semigroup in Quantum Probability: giv…
Some $M|G|\infty$ queue systems parameters values approximations, obtained through the consideration of an adequate Markov renewal process, are presented, and studied.
By introducing a key combinatorial structure for words produced by a Variable Length Markov Chain (VLMC), the longest internal suffix, precise characterizations of existence and uniqueness of a stationary probability measure for a VLMC chain are given. These characterizations turn into necessary and sufficient conditions for VLMC associated to a subclass of probabilised context trees: the shift-stable context trees. As a by-product, we prove that a VLMC chain whose stabilized context tree is again a context tree has at most one stationary probability measure.
In this paper, the weak convergence of impulsive recurrent process with semi-Markov switching in the scheme of Levy approximation is proved. Singular perturbation problem for the compensating operator of the extended Markov renewal process is used to prove the relative compactness.
Let $(Z_n)_{n\geqslant 0}$ be a branching process in a random environment defined by a Markov chain $(X_n)_{n\geqslant 0}$ with values in a finite state space $\mathbb X$ starting at $X_0=i \in\mathbb X$. We extend from the i.i.d. environment to the Markovian one the classical classification of the branching processes into critical and strongly, intermediate and weakly subcritical states. In all these cases, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that $Z_n>0$ as $n\to+\infty$.
We study an approximation method of stationary characters of a two-dimensional Markov chain via the Stein method. For this purpose, innovative methods are developed to estimate the moments of the Markov chain, as well as the solution to the Poisson equation with a partial differential operator.
We give a number of results on approximations of Markov kernels in total variation and Wasserstein norms weighted by a Lyapunov function. The results are applied to examples from Bayesian statistics where approximations to transition kernels are made to reduce computational costs.
In this paper we discuss weak convergence of continuous-time Markov chains to a non-symmetric pure jump process. We approach this problem using Dirichlet forms as well as semimartingales. As an application, we discuss how to approximate a given Markov process by Markov chains.
We study approximations of evolving probability measures by an interacting particle system. The particle system dynamics is a combination of independent Markov chain moves and importance sampling/resampling steps. Under global regularity conditions, we derive non-asymptotic error bounds for the particle system approximation. In a few simple examples, including high dimensional product measures, bounds with explicit constants of feasible size are obtained. Our main motivation are applications to sequential MCMC methods for Monte Carlo integral estimation.
We consider the down/up crossing property of weighted Markov branching processes. The joint probability distribution of multi crossing numbers of such processes are obtained. In particular, for Markov branching processes, the probability distribution of death number is given and for bulk-arrival queueing model, the joint probability distributions of service number and arrival number is also given.
Reinforced processes are known to provide a stochastic representation for the quasi-stationary distribution of a given killed Markov process - describing the killed Markov process at fixed time instants. In this paper we shall adapt the construction to provide a pathwise description. We also obtain a stochastic approximation for the quasi-limiting distributions of reducible killed Markov processes as a corollary.
A general criterion is given for when a Markov chain trapped with probability p(x) in state x will be almost surely trapped. The quenched (state x is a trap forever with probability p(x)) and annealed (state x traps with probability p(x) on each visit) problems are shown to be equivalent.
Motivated by applications in Markov chain Monte Carlo, we discuss what it means for one Markov chain to be an approximation to another. Specifically included in that discussion are situations in which a Markov chain with continuous state space is approximated by one with finite state space. A simple sufficient condition for close approximation is derived, which indicates the existence of three distinct approximation regimes. Counterexamples are presented to show that these regimes are real and not artifacts of the proof technique. An application to the ``ball walk'' of Lovász and Simonovits is…
This paper considers an approximation usually used when implementing Ramaswami's recursion for the stationary distribution of the M/G/1-type Markov chain. The approximation is called the level-increment-truncation approximation because it truncates level increment at a given threshold. The main contribution of this paper is to present a geometric convergence formula of the level-wise difference between the respective stationary distributions of the original M/G/1-type Markov chain and its LI truncation approximation under the assumption that the level-increment distribution is light-tailed.
In this paper, the weak convergence of impulsive recurrent process with Markov switching in the scheme of Levy approximation is proved. For the relative compactness, a method proposed by R. Liptser for semimartingales is used with a modification, where we apply a solution of a singular perturbation problem instead of an ergodic theorem.
The article is devoted to the estimation of the rate of convergence of integral functionals of a Markov process. Under the assumption that the given Markov process admits a transition probability density which is differentiable in $t$ and the derivative has an integrable upper bound of a certain type, we derive the accuracy rates for strong and weak approximations of the functionals by Riemannian sums. Some examples are provided.
The Markov chain approximation of a one-dimensional symmetric diffusion is investigated in this paper. Given an irreducible reflecting diffusion on a closed interval with scale function $s$ and speed measure $m$, the approximating Markov chains are constructed explicitly through the trace of the Dirichlet form corresponding to the diffusion. One feature of our approach is that it does not require uniform ellipticity on diffusion coefficient of the limit object or uniform regularity on conductances of the approximative Markov chains, as imposed usually in the previous related works.
This paper deals with three major types of convergence of probability measures on metric spaces: weak convergence, setwise converges, and convergence in the total variation. First, it describes and compares necessary and sufficient conditions for these types of convergence, some of which are well-known, in terms of convergence of probabilities of open and closed sets and, for the probabilities on the real line, in terms of convergence of distribution functions. Second, it provides % convenient criteria for weak and setwise convergence of probability measures and continuity of stochastic kernel…
Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling schemes. We develop a stability analysis by functional inequalities for a nonlinear flow of probability measures describing the limit behavior of the algorithms as the number of particles tends to infinity. Stability results are derived both under global and local assumptions on the generator of the underlying Metropolis dynamics. This allows us to prove that the c…
Let S be a denumerable state space and let P be a transition probability matrix on S. If a denumerable set M of nonnegative matrices is such that the sum of the matrices is equal to P, then we call M a partition of P. Let K denote the set of probability vectors on S. To every partition M of P we can associate a transition probability function on K defined in such a way that if p in K and m in M are such that ||pm|| > 0, then, with probability ||pm|| the vector p is transferred to the vector pm/||pm||. Here ||.|| denotes the l_1-norm. In this paper we investigate convergence in distribution for…
In this paper, the weak convergence of additive functionals of processes with locally independent increments and with Markov switching in the scheme of Poisson approximation is proved. For the relative compactness, a method proposed by R. Liptser for semimartingales is used with a modification, where we apply a solution of a singular perturbation problem instead of an ergodic theorem.
Exponential stability of the exact solutions as well as $θ$-EM ($\frac{1}{2}<θ\le 1$) approximations to neutral stochastic differential delay equations with Markov switching will be investigated in this paper. Sufficient conditions are obtained to ensure the $p$-th moment ($p\ge1$) and almost sure exponential stability of the exact solutions as well as $θ$-EM approximations ($p=2$). An example will be presented to support our conclusions.
We present a new approach to the bootstrap for chains of infinite order taking values on a finite alphabet. It is based on a sequential Bootstrap Central Limit Theorem for the sequence of canonical Markov approximations of the chain of infinite order. Combined with previous results on the rate of approximation this leads to a Central Limit Theorem for the bootstrapped estimator of the sample mean which is the main result of this paper.
We prove a version of the multidimensional Fourth Moment Theorem for chaotic random vectors, in the general context of diffusion Markov generators. In addition to the usual componentwise convergence and unlike the infinite-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck generator case, another moment-type condition is required to imply joint convergence of of a given sequence of vectors.
Consider a discrete time, ergodic Markov chain with finite state space which is started from stationarity. Fill and Lyzinski (2014) showed that, in some cases, the hitting time for a given state may be represented as a sum of a geometric number of IID random variables. We extend this result by giving explicit bounds on the distance between any such hitting time and an appropriately chosen geometric sum, along with other related approximations. The compounding random variable in our approximating geometric sum is a strong stationary time for the underlying Markov chain; we also discuss the appr…
We provide strong $L_p$-rates of approximation of nonsmooth integral-type functionals of Markov processes by integral sums. Our approach is, in a sense, process insensitive and is based on a modification of some well-developed estimates from the theory of continuous additive functionals of Markov processes.
An algorithm for estimating quasi-stationary distribution of finite state space Markov chains has been proven in a previous paper. Now this paper proves a similar algorithm that works for general state space Markov chains under very general assumptions.
We propose a discrete time discrete space Markov chain approximation with a Brownian bridge correction for computing curvilinear boundary crossing probabilities of a general diffusion process on a finite time interval. For broad classes of curvilinear boundaries and diffusion processes, we prove the convergence of the constructed approximations in the form of products of the respective substochastic matrices to the boundary crossing probabilities for the process as the time grid used to construct the Markov chains is getting finer. Numerical results indicate that the convergence rate for the p…
We derive explicit upper bounds for the $\bar{d}$-distance between a chain of infinite order and its canonical $k$-steps Markov approximation. Our proof is entirely constructive and involves a "coupling from the past" argument. The new method covers non necessarily continuous probability kernels, and chains with null transition probabilities. These results imply in particular the Bernoulli property for these processes.
Poisson's equation has a lot of applications in various areas. Usually it is hard to derive the explicit expression of the solution of Poisson's equation for a Markov chain on an infinitely many state space. We will present a computational framework for the solution for both discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs) and continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs), by developing the technique of augmented truncation approximations. The convergence to the solution is investigated in terms of the assumption about the monotonicity of the first return times, and is further established for two types of truncati…
The generalized perturbative approach is an all purpose variant of Stein's method used to obtain rates of normal approximation. Originally developed for functions of independent random variables this method is here extended to functions of the realization of a hidden Markov model. In this dependent setting, rates of convergence are provided in some applications to stochastic geometry, leading, in each instance, to an extra log-factor vis a vis the rate in the independent case.
In this article we provide new applications for exponential approximation using the framework of Peköz and Röllin (in press), which is based on Stein's method. We give error bounds for the nearly critical Galton-Watson process conditioned on non-extinction, and for the occupation times of Markov chains; for the latter, in particular, we give a new exponential approximation rate for the number of revisits to the origin for general two dimensional random walk, also known as the Erdős-Taylor theorem.
Let $(X_n)_{n \in\mathbb{N}}$ be a $V$-geometrically ergodic Markov chain on a measurable space $\mathbb{X}$ with invariant probability distribution $π$. In this paper, we propose a discretization scheme providing a computable sequence $(\widehatπ_k)_{k\ge 1}$ of probability measures which approximates $π$ as $k$ growths to infinity. The probability measure $\widehatπ_k$ is computed from the invariant probability distribution of a finite Markov chain. The convergence rate in total variation of $(\widehatπ_k)_{k\ge 1}$ to $π$ is given. As a result, the specific case of first order autoregressiv…
It is well-known that well-posedness of a martingale problem in the class of continuous (or r.c.l.l.) solutions enables one to construct the associated transition probability functions. We extend this result to the case when the martingale problem is well-posed in the class of solutions which are continuous in probability. This extension is used to improve on a criterion for a probability measure to be invariant for the semigroup associated with the Markov process. We also give examples of martingale problems that are well-posed in the class of solutions which are continuous in probability but…
This paper develops asymptotics and approximations for ruin probabilities in a multivariate risk setting. We consider a model in which the individual reserve processes are driven by a common Markovian environmental process. We subsequently consider a regime in which the claim arrival intensity and transition rates of the environmental process are jointly sped up, and one in which there is (with overwhelming probability) maximally one transition of the environmental process in the time interval considered. The approximations are extensively tested in a series of numerical experiments.
This paper studies the light-tailed asymptotics of the stationary tail probability vectors of a Markov chain of M/G/1 type. Almost all related studies have focused on the typical case, where the transition block matrices in the non-boundary levels have a dominant impact on the decay rate of the stationary tail probability vectors and their decay is aperiodic. In this paper, we study not only the typical case but also atypical cases such that the stationary tail probability vectors decay periodically and/or their decay rate is determined by the tail distribution of jump sizes from the boundary …
We study ergodic properties of a class of Markov-modulated general birth-death processes under fast regime switching. The first set of results concerns the ergodic properties of the properly scaled joint Markov process with a parameter that is taken large. Under very weak hypotheses, we show that if the averaged process is exponentially ergodic for large values of the parameter, then the same applies to the original joint Markov process. The second set of results concerns steady-state diffusion approximations, under the assumption that the 'averaged' fluid limit exists. Here, we establish conv…
The paper is concerned with the equilibrium distributions of continuous-time density dependent Markov processes on the integers. These distributions are known typically to be approximately normal, and the approximation error, as measured in Kolmogorov distance, is of the smallest order that is compatible with their having integer support. Here, an approximation in the much stronger total variation norm is established, without any loss in the asymptotic order of accuracy; the approximating distribution is a translated Poisson distribution having the same variance and (almost) the same mean. Our…
This paper considers the level-increment (LI) truncation approximation of M/G/1-type Markov chains. The LI truncation approximation is useful for implementing the M/G/1 paradigm, which is the framework for computing the stationary distribution of M/G/1-type Markov chains. The main result of this paper is a subgeometric convergence formula for the total variation distance between the original stationary distribution and its LI truncation approximation. Suppose that the equilibrium level-increment distribution is subexponential, and that the downward transition matrix is rank one. We then show t…
For integer valued random variables, the translated Poisson distributions form a flexible family for approximation in total variation, in much the same way that the normal family is used for approximation in Kolmogorov distance. Using the Stein--Chen method, approximation can often be achieved with error bounds of the same order as those for the CLT. In this paper, an analogous theory, again based on Stein's method, is developed in the multivariate context. The approximating family consists of the equilibrium distributions of a collection of Markov jump processes, whose analogues in one dimens…
Density dependent families of Markov chains, such as the stochastic models of mass-action chemical kinetics, converge for large values of the indexing parameter $N$ to deterministic systems of differential equations (Kurtz, 1970). Moreover for moderate $N$ they can be strongly approximated by paths of a diffusion process (Kurtz, 1976). Such an approximation however fails if the state space is bounded (at zero or at a constant maximum level due to conservation of mass) and if the process visits the boundaries with non negligible probability. We present a strong approximation by a jump-diffusion…
We obtain weak rates for approximation of an integral functional of a Markov process by integral sums. An assumption on the process is formulated only in terms of its transition probability density, and, therefore, our approach is not strongly dependent on the structure of the process. Applications to the estimates of the rates of approximation of the Feynman--Kac semigroup and of the price of "occupation-time options" are provided.
This paper provides a general and abstract approach to approximate ergodic regimes of Markov and Feller processes. More precisely, we show that the recursive algorithm presented in Lamberton & Pages (2002) and based on simulation algorithms of stochastic schemes with decreasing step can be used to build invariant measures for general Markov and Feller processes. We also propose applications in three different configurations: Approximation of Markov switching Brownian diffusion ergodic regimes using Euler scheme, approximation of Markov Brownian diffusion ergodic regimes with Milstein scheme an…
In this paper, we provide strong $L_2$-rates of approximation of the integral-type functionals of Markov processes by integral sums. We improve the method developed in [2]. Under assumptions on the process formulated only in terms of its transition probability density, we get the accuracy that coincides with that obtained in [3] for a one-dimensional diffusion process.
We formulate some simple conditions under which a Markov chain may be approximated by the solution to a differential equation, with quantifiable error probabilities. The role of a choice of coordinate functions for the Markov chain is emphasised. The general theory is illustrated in three examples: the classical stochastic epidemic, a population process model with fast and slow variables, and core-finding algorithms for large random hypergraphs.
