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arXiv 2010.12355physics.soc-phcond-mat.stat-mechcs.SI
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复杂世界中意见形成的脆弱性

The fragility of opinion formation in a complex world

Matúš Medo, Manuel S. Mariani, Linyuan Lü

摘要:

海量高质量信息触手可及,怎么可能有很多人相信地球是平的,接种疫苗有害?出于这个问题,我们量化的意见形成机制的影响,即一个不知情的观察者逐渐形成的意见,由相互信任和不信任的签署网络相互关联的主题组成的世界。我们通过数值和分析表明,观察者得出的观点高度不一致(它们往往独立于观察者的初始观点)且不稳定(它们表现出很大的随机变化)。意见的不一致性和不稳定性增加与世界的复杂性所代表的主题的数量,这可以通过适当地扩大观察者的初始信息量来防止。我们的研究结果意味着,即使一个人谁最初信任可信的信息来源可能最终信任的欺骗性的,如果至少有少量的信任关系之间存在的可信和欺骗性的来源。

英文摘要:

With vast amounts of high-quality information at our fingertips, how is it possible that many people believe that the Earth is flat and vaccination harmful? Motivated by this question, we quantify the implications of an opinion formation mechanism whereby an uninformed observer gradually forms opinions about a world composed of subjects interrelated by a signed network of mutual trust and distrust. We show numerically and analytically that the observer's resulting opinions are highly inconsistent (they tend to be independent of the observer's initial opinions) and unstable (they exhibit wide stochastic variations). Opinion inconsistency and instability increase with the world complexity represented by the number of subjects, which can be prevented by suitably expanding the observer's initial amount of information. Our findings imply that even an individual who initially trusts credible information sources may end up trusting the deceptive ones if at least a small number of trust relations exist between the credible and deceptive sources.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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