The click-through rate (CTR) reflects the ratio of clicks on a specific item to its total number of views. It has significant impact on websites' advertising revenue. Learning sophisticated models to understand and predict user behavior is essential for maximizing the CTR in recommendation systems. Recent works have suggested new methods that replace the expensive and time-consuming feature engineering process with a variety of deep learning (DL) classifiers capable of capturing complicated patterns from raw data; these methods have shown significant improvement on the CTR prediction task. While DL techniques can learn intricate user behavior patterns, it relies on a vast amount of data and does not perform as well when there is a limited amount of data. We propose XDBoost, a new DL method for capturing complex patterns that requires just a limited amount of raw data. XDBoost is an iterative three-stage neural network model influenced by the traditional machine learning boosting mechanism. XDBoost's components operate sequentially similar to boosting; However, unlike conventional boosting, XDBoost does not sum the predictions generated by its components. Instead, it utilizes these predictions as new artificial features and enhances CTR prediction by retraining the model using these features. Comprehensive experiments conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of XDBoost on two datasets demonstrated its ability to outperform existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) models for CTR prediction.
Industrial recommender systems are frequently tasked with approximating probabilities for multiple, often closely related, user actions. For example, predicting if a user will click on an advertisement and if they will then purchase the advertised product. The conceptual similarity between these tasks has promoted the use of multi-task learning: a class of algorithms that aim to bring positive inductive transfer from related tasks. Here, we empirically evaluate multi-task learning approaches with neural networks for an online advertising task. Specifically, we consider approximating the probab…
SOKENDAI (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies)（综合研究大学院大学（SOKENDAI））；National Institute of Informatics（日本国立信息学研究所）
Matrix factorization (MF) is one of the most efficient methods for rating predictions. MF learns user and item representations by factorizing the user-item rating matrix. Further, textual contents are integrated to conventional MF to address the cold-start problem. However, the textual contents do not reflect all aspects of the items. In this paper, we propose a model that leverages the information hidden in the item co-click (i.e., items that are often clicked together by a user) into learning item representations. We develop TCMF (Textual Co Matrix Factorization) that learns the user and ite…
Tokyo Institute of Technology（东京工业大学）；SMN Corporation（SMN公司）
Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a negative response from the users, as it is possible that the users were not exposed to the items (positive-unlabeled problem). This leads to a difficulty in predicting the users' preferences from implicit feedback. Previous studies addressed the positive-unlabeled problem by uniformly upweighting the loss for the positive feedback data or estimating the confi…
In the nascent days of e-content delivery, having a superior product was enough to give companies an edge against the competition. With today's fiercely competitive market, one needs to be multiple steps ahead, especially when it comes to understanding consumers. Focusing on a large set of web portals owned and managed by a private communications company, we propose methods by which these sites' clickstream data can be used to provide a deep understanding of their visitors, as well as their interests and preferences. We further expand the use of this data to show that it can be effectively use…
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Microsoft Research Asia（微软亚洲研究院）；Meituan AI Lab（美团人工智能实验室）；The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）
To address the sparsity and cold start problem of collaborative filtering, researchers usually make use of side information, such as social networks or item attributes, to improve recommendation performance. This paper considers the knowledge graph as the source of side information. To address the limitations of existing embedding-based and path-based methods for knowledge-graph-aware recommendation, we propose Ripple Network, an end-to-end framework that naturally incorporates the knowledge graph into recommender systems. Similar to actual ripples propagating on the surface of water, Ripple N…
We review a method for click-through rate prediction based on the work of Menon et al. [11], which combines collaborative filtering and matrix factorization with a side-information model and fuses the outputs to proper probabilities in [0,1]. In addition we provide details, both for the modeling as well as the experimental part, that are not found elsewhere. We rigorously test the performance on several test data sets from consecutive days in a click-through rate prediction setup, in a manner which reflects a real-world pipeline. Our results confirm that performance can be increased using late…
Click prediction boosting via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization based ensemble learning pipelines
Istanbul Technical University（伊斯坦布尔理工大学）；Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Center（拉德堡德大学医学中心唐德斯脑、认知与行为研究所）；Kadir Has University（卡迪尔哈斯大学）
This thesis contributes a structured inquiry into the open actuarial mathematics problem of modelling user behaviour using machine learning methods, in order to predict purchase intent of non-life insurance products. It is valuable for a company to understand user interactions with their website as it provides rich and individualized insight into consumer behaviour. Most of existing research in user behaviour modelling aims to explain or predict clicks on a search engine result page or to estimate click-through rate in sponsored search. These models are based on concepts about users' examinati…
Tooso Labs（Tooso实验室）；University of Antwerp（安特卫普大学）；Queen Mary University（伦敦玛丽女王大学）
Knowing if a user is a buyer vs window shopper solely based on clickstream data is of crucial importance for ecommerce platforms seeking to implement real-time accurate NBA (next best action) policies. However, due to the low frequency of conversion events and the noisiness of browsing data, classifying user sessions is very challenging. In this paper, we address the clickstream classification problem in the fashion industry and present three major contributions to the burgeoning field of AI in fashion: first, we collected, normalized and prepared a novel dataset of live shopping sessions from…
Maternal and child mortality is a public health problem that disproportionately affects low- and middle-income countries. Every day, 800 women and 6,700 newborns die from complications related to pregnancy or childbirth. And for every maternal death, about 20 women suffer serious birth injuries. However, nearly all of these deaths and negative health outcomes are preventable. Midwives are key to revert this situation, and thus it is essential to strengthen their capacities and the quality of their education. This is the aim of the Safe Delivery App, a digital job aid and learning tool to enhan…
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
Predicting user responses, such as clicks and conversions, is of great importance and has found its usage in many Web applications including recommender systems, web search and online advertising. The data in those applications is mostly categorical and contains multiple fields; a typical representation is to transform it into a high-dimensional sparse binary feature representation via one-hot encoding. Facing with the extreme sparsity, traditional models may limit their capacity of mining shallow patterns from the data, i.e. low-order feature combinations. Deep models like deep neural network…
FITEC srl（FITEC股份有限公司）；Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）；LINKS Foundation（LINKS基金会）；Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia（意大利理工学院）
This paper presents the POLINKS solution to the RecSys Challenge 2020 that ranked 6th in the final leaderboard. We analyze the performance of our solution that utilizes the click-through rate value to address the challenge task, we compare it with a gradient boosting model, and we report the quality indicators utilized for computing the final leaderboard.
Tooso Labs（Tooso实验室）；Queen Mary University（伦敦玛丽女王大学）
Knowing if a user is a buyer or window shopper solely based on clickstream data is of crucial importance for e-commerce platforms seeking to implement real-time accurate NBA (next best action) policies. However, due to the low frequency of conversion events and the noisiness of browsing data, classifying user sessions is very challenging. In this paper, we address the clickstream classification problem in the eCommerce industry and present three major contributions to the burgeoning field of AI-for-retail: first, we collected, normalized and prepared a novel dataset of live shopping sessions f…
Accurately predicting customer churn using large scale time-series data is a common problem facing many business domains. The creation of model features across various time windows for training and testing can be particularly challenging due to temporal issues common to time-series data. In this paper, we will explore the application of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) on a customer dataset with a wide-variety of temporal features in order to create a highly-accurate customer churn model. In particular, we describe an effective method for handling temporally sensitive feature engineering. T…
Purdue University（普渡大学）；University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）
We study the problem of predicting student knowledge acquisition in online courses from clickstream behavior. Motivated by the proliferation of eLearning lecture delivery, we specifically focus on student in-video activity in lectures videos, which consist of content and in-video quizzes. Our methodology for predicting in-video quiz performance is based on three key ideas we develop. First, we model students' clicking behavior via time-series learning architectures operating on raw event data, rather than defining hand-crafted features as in existing approaches that may lose important informat…
Physics-informed neural network for predicting fatigue life of unirradiated and irradiated austenitic and ferritic/martensitic steels under reactor-relevant conditions
Extreme Environments Materials Group (EEMG), Department of Materials Engineering, Indian Institute of Science (IISc)（极端环境材料组（EEMG）、材料工程系、印度科学研究院（IISc））；Department of Materials, University of Oxford（材料系、牛津大学）；Robert Bosch Centre for Cyberphysical Systems, Indian Institute of Science (IISc)（罗伯特·博世网络物理系统中心、印度科学研究院（IISc））
ExtremeCast: Boosting Extreme Value Prediction for Global Weather Forecast
Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（上海人工智能实验室）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
Acute Care Solutions (ACS)（急性护理解决方案（ACS））；Philips Research North America（飞利浦北美研究院）；Cardon Children’s Medical Center（卡顿儿童医疗中心）；Banner Health System（班纳健康系统）
Our work focuses on the problem of predicting the transfer of pediatric patients from the general ward of a hospital to the pediatric intensive care unit. Using data collected over 5.5 years from the electronic health records of two medical facilities, we develop classifiers based on adaptive boosting and gradient tree boosting. We further combine these learned classifiers into an ensemble model and compare its performance to a modified pediatric early warning score (PEWS) baseline that relies on expert defined guidelines. To gauge model generalizability, we perform an inter-facility evaluatio…
This paper addresses a key challenge in MOOC dropout prediction, namely to build meaningful representations from clickstream data. While a variety of feature extraction techniques have been explored extensively for such purposes, to our knowledge, no prior works have explored modeling of educational content (e.g. video) and their correlation with the learner's behavior (e.g. clickstream) in this context. We bridge this gap by devising a method to learn representation for videos and the correlation between videos and clicks. The results indicate that modeling videos and their correlation with c…
Boosting is a method for learning a single accurate predictor by linearly combining a set of less accurate weak learners. Recently, structured learning has found many applications in computer vision. Inspired by structured support vector machines (SSVM), here we propose a new boosting algorithm for structured output prediction, which we refer to as StructBoost. StructBoost supports nonlinear structured learning by combining a set of weak structured learners. As SSVM generalizes SVM, our StructBoost generalizes standard boosting approaches such as AdaBoost, or LPBoost to structured learning. Th…
Loan default prediction is one of the most important and critical problems faced by banks and other financial institutions as it has a huge effect on profit. Although many traditional methods exist for mining information about a loan application, most of these methods seem to be under-performing as there have been reported increases in the number of bad loans. In this paper, we use an Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm called XGBoost for loan default prediction. The prediction is based on a loan data from a leading bank taking into consideration data sets from both the loan application and th…
University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Qualcomm Institute / Calit2（高通研究所/加州电信与信息技术学院）
This technical report records the experiments of applying multiple machine learning algorithms for predicting eating and food purchasing behaviors of free-living individuals. Data was collected with accelerometer, global positioning system (GPS), and body-worn cameras called SenseCam over a one week period in 81 individuals from a variety of ages and demographic backgrounds. These data were turned into minute-level features from sensors as well as engineered features that included time (e.g., time since last eating) and environmental context (e.g., distance to nearest grocery store). Algorithm…
DATA61|CSIRO（联邦科学与工业研究组织数据61所）；Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；University of Technology in Sydney（悉尼科技大学）
Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting the accident duration on arterial road networks in Sydney, based on operational requirements of incident clearance target which is less than 45 minutes. Using incident baseline information, we first deploy a classification method using various ensemble tree models in order to predi…
Predicting the click-through rate of an advertisement is a critical component of online advertising platforms. In sponsored search, the click-through rate estimates the probability that a displayed advertisement is clicked by a user after she submits a query to the search engine. Commercial search engines typically rely on machine learning models trained with a large number of features to make such predictions. This is inevitably requires a lot of engineering efforts to define, compute, and select the appropriate features. In this paper, we propose two novel approaches (one working at characte…
Modeling tap or click sequences of users on a mobile device can improve our understandings of interaction behavior and offers opportunities for UI optimization by recommending next element the user might want to click on. We analyzed a large-scale dataset of over 20 million clicks from more than 4,000 mobile users who opted in. We then designed a deep learning model that predicts the next element that the user clicks given the user's click history, the structural information of the UI screen, and the current context such as the time of the day. We thoroughly investigated the deep model by comp…
STOR-i Centre for Doctoral Training（STOR-i博士培训中心）；Lancaster University（兰卡斯特大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Many single-target regression problems require estimates of uncertainty along with the point predictions. Probabilistic regression algorithms are well-suited for these tasks. However, the options are much more limited when the prediction target is multivariate and a joint measure of uncertainty is required. For example, in predicting a 2D velocity vector a joint uncertainty would quantify the probability of any vector in the plane, which would be more expressive than two separate uncertainties on the x- and y- components. To enable joint probabilistic regression, we propose a Natural Gradient …
This study approached the Hit Song Science problem with the aim of predicting which songs in the Afrobeats genre will become popular among Spotify listeners. A dataset of 2063 songs was generated through the Spotify Web API, with the provided audio features. Random Forest and Gradient Boosting algorithms proved to be successful with approximately F1 scores of 86%.
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术学院）
In this paper, we present a data-driven model for forecasting the production increase after hydraulic fracturing (HF). We use data from fracturing jobs performed at one of the Siberian oilfields. The data includes features, characterizing the jobs, and geological information. To predict an oil rate after the fracturing machine learning (ML) technique was applied. We compared the ML-based prediction to a prediction based on the experience of reservoir and production engineers responsible for the HF-job planning. We discuss the potential for further development of ML techniques for predicting ch…
Advertising click fraud detection plays one of the vital roles in current E-commerce websites as advertising is an essential component of its business model. It aims at, given a set of corresponding features, e.g., demographic information of users and statistical features of clicks, predicting whether a click is fraudulent or not in the community. Recent efforts attempted to incorporate attributed behavior sequence and heterogeneous network for extracting complex features of users and achieved significant effects on click fraud detection. In this paper, we propose a Multimodal and Contrastive …
Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. Existing works mainly address the single-domain CTR prediction problem and model aspects such as feature interaction, user behavior history and contextual information. Nevertheless, ads are usually displayed with natural content, which offers an opportunity for cross-domain CTR prediction. In this paper, we address this problem and leverage auxiliary data from a source domain to improve the CTR prediction performance of a target domain. Our study is based on UC Toutiao (a news feed service integrated with the…
Predicting Deterioration in Mild Cognitive Impairment with Survival Transformers, Extreme Gradient Boosting and Cox Proportional Hazard Modelling
Goldsmiths, University of London（伦敦大学金史密斯学院）；School of Health Sciences, The University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学健康科学学院）；Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences（法兰克福应用科学大学计算机科学与工程学院）；Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience King’s College London（伦敦国王学院精神病学、心理学与神经科学研究所）
We study the performance of Local Causal Discovery (LCD), a simple and efficient constraint-based method for causal discovery, in predicting causal effects in large-scale gene expression data. We construct practical estimators specific to the high-dimensional regime. Inspired by the ICP algorithm, we use an optional preselection method and two different statistical tests. Empirically, the resulting LCD estimator is seen to closely approach the accuracy of ICP, the state-of-the-art method, while it is algorithmically simpler and computationally more efficient.
Predicting keywords performance, such as number of impressions, click-through rate (CTR), conversion rate (CVR), revenue per click (RPC), and cost per click (CPC), is critical for sponsored search in the online advertising industry. An interesting phenomenon is that, despite the size of the overall data, the data are very sparse at the individual unit level. To overcome the sparsity and leverage hierarchical information across the data structure, we propose a Dynamic Hierarchical Empirical Bayesian (DHEB) model that dynamically determines the hierarchy through a data-driven process and provide…
In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is fundamental in estimating the value of displaying the advertisement. However, there is a relatively long time delay between a click and its resultant conversion. Because of the delayed feedback, some positive instances at the training period are labeled as negative because some conversions have not yet occurred when training data are gathered. As a result, the conditional label distributions differ between the training da…
Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）
Predicting the probability that a user will click on a specific advertisement has been a prevalent issue in online advertising, attracting much research attention in the past decades. As a hot research frontier driven by industrial needs, recent years have witnessed more and more novel learning models employed to improve advertising CTR prediction. Although extant research provides necessary details on algorithmic design for addressing a variety of specific problems in advertising CTR prediction, the methodological evolution and connections between modeling frameworks are precluded. However, t…
Recommendation systems have been extensively studied by many literature in the past and are ubiquitous in online advertisement, shopping industry/e-commerce, query suggestions in search engines, and friend recommendation in social networks. Moreover, restaurant/music/product/movie/news/app recommendations are only a few of the applications of a recommender system. A small percent improvement on the CTR prediction accuracy has been mentioned to add millions of dollars of revenue to the advertisement industry. Click-Through-Rate (CTR) prediction is a special version of recommender system in whic…
RAT: Retrieval-Augmented Transformer for Click-Through Rate Prediction
Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University（清华大学深圳国际研究生院）；College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University（深圳大学计算机与软件学院）；Research Center of Artificial Intelligence, Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室人工智能研究中心）
A central challenge in training one-shot learning models is the limited representativeness of the available shots of the data space. Particularly in the field of network neuroscience where the brain is represented as a graph, such models may lead to low performance when classifying brain states (e.g., typical vs. autistic). To cope with this, most of the existing works involve a data augmentation step to increase the size of the training set, its diversity and representativeness. Though effective, such augmentation methods are limited to generating samples with the same size as the input shots…
Conversion prediction plays an important role in online advertising since Cost-Per-Action (CPA) has become one of the primary campaign performance objectives in the industry. Unlike click prediction, conversions have different types in nature, and each type may be associated with different decisive factors. In this paper, we formulate conversion prediction as a multi-task learning problem, so that the prediction models for different types of conversions can be learned together. These models share feature representations, but have their specific parameters, providing the benefit of information-…
Accurate prediction of suicide risk in mental health patients remains an open problem. Existing methods including clinician judgments have acceptable sensitivity, but yield many false positives. Exploiting administrative data has a great potential, but the data has high dimensionality and redundancies in the recording processes. We investigate the efficacy of three most effective randomized machine learning techniques random forests, gradient boosting machines, and deep neural nets with dropout in predicting suicide risk. Using a cohort of mental health patients from a regional Australian hosp…
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术研究院）
The probability of a drought for a particular region is crucial when making decisions related to agriculture. Forecasting this probability is critical for management and challenging at the same time. The prediction model should consider multiple factors with complex relationships across the region of interest and neighbouring regions. We approach this problem by presenting an end-to-end solution based on a spatio-temporal neural network. The model predicts the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for subregions of interest. Predictions by climate models provide an additional source of knowledg…
African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Limbe, Cameroon（非洲数学科学研究所（AIMS），林贝，喀麦隆）
The instability of power generation from national grids has led industries (e.g., telecommunication) to rely on plant generators to run their businesses. However, these secondary generators create additional challenges such as fuel leakages in and out of the system and perturbations in the fuel level gauges. Consequently, telecommunication operators have been involved in a constant need for fuel to supply diesel generators. With the increase in fuel prices due to socio-economic factors, excessive fuel consumption and fuel pilferage become a problem, and this affects the smooth run of the netwo…
Seoul National University（首尔大学）；NAVER Corp（NAVER公司）；POSTECH（浦项工科大学）
Personalized news recommendation aims to provide attractive articles for readers by predicting their likelihood of clicking on a certain article. To accurately predict this probability, plenty of studies have been proposed that actively utilize content features of articles, such as words, categories, or entities. However, we observed that the articles' contextual features, such as CTR (click-through-rate), popularity, or freshness, were either neglected or underutilized recently. To prove that this is the case, we conducted an extensive comparison between recent deep-learning models and naive …
Online advertising has typically been more personalized than offline advertising, through the use of machine learning models and real-time auctions for ad targeting. One specific task, predicting the likelihood of conversion (i.e.\ the probability a user will purchase the advertised product), is crucial to the advertising ecosystem for both targeting and pricing ads. Currently, these models are often trained by observing individual user behavior, but, increasingly, regulatory and technical constraints are requiring privacy-preserving approaches. For example, major platforms are moving to restr…
