Online advertising has typically been more personalized than offline advertising, through the use of machine learning models and real-time auctions for ad targeting. One specific task, predicting the likelihood of conversion (i.e.\ the probability a user will purchase the advertised product), is crucial to the advertising ecosystem for both targeting and pricing ads. Currently, these models are often trained by observing individual user behavior, but, increasingly, regulatory and technical constraints are requiring privacy-preserving approaches. For example, major platforms are moving to restrict tracking individual user events across multiple applications, and governments around the world have shown steadily more interest in regulating the use of personal data. Instead of receiving data about individual user behavior, advertisers may receive privacy-preserving feedback, such as the number of installs of an advertised app that resulted from a group of users. In this paper we outline the recent privacy-related changes in the online advertising ecosystem from a machine learning perspective. We provide an overview of the challenges and constraints when learning conversion models in this setting. We introduce a novel approach for training these models that makes use of post-ranking signals. We show using offline experiments on real world data that it outperforms a model relying on opt-in data alone, and significantly reduces model degradation when no individual labels are available. Finally, we discuss future directions for research in this evolving area.
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
Post-click conversion rate (CVR) estimation is a critical task in e-commerce recommender systems. This task is deemed quite challenging under the industrial setting with two major issues: 1) selection bias caused by user self-selection, and 2) data sparsity due to the rare click events. A successful conversion typically has the following sequential events: "exposure -> click -> conversion". Conventional CVR estimators are trained in the click space, but the inference is done in the entire exposure space. They fail to account for the causes of the missing data and treat them as missing at rando…
Tooso Labs（Tooso实验室）；University of Antwerp（安特卫普大学）；Queen Mary University（伦敦玛丽女王大学）
Knowing if a user is a buyer vs window shopper solely based on clickstream data is of crucial importance for ecommerce platforms seeking to implement real-time accurate NBA (next best action) policies. However, due to the low frequency of conversion events and the noisiness of browsing data, classifying user sessions is very challenging. In this paper, we address the clickstream classification problem in the fashion industry and present three major contributions to the burgeoning field of AI in fashion: first, we collected, normalized and prepared a novel dataset of live shopping sessions from…
Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial for ranking systems in industrial applications such as recommendation and advertising. Conventional CVR modeling applies popular deep learning methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance. However it encounters several task-specific problems in practice, making CVR modeling challenging. For example, conventional CVR models are trained with samples of clicked impressions while utilized to make inference on the entire space with samples of all impressions. This causes a sample selection bias problem. Besides, there exists an …
Industrial recommender systems are frequently tasked with approximating probabilities for multiple, often closely related, user actions. For example, predicting if a user will click on an advertisement and if they will then purchase the advertised product. The conceptual similarity between these tasks has promoted the use of multi-task learning: a class of algorithms that aim to bring positive inductive transfer from related tasks. Here, we empirically evaluate multi-task learning approaches with neural networks for an online advertising task. Specifically, we consider approximating the probab…
Predicting the expected value or number of post-click conversions (purchases or other events) is a key task in performance-based digital advertising. In training a conversion optimizer model, one of the most crucial aspects is handling delayed feedback with respect to conversions, which can happen multiple times with varying delay. This task is difficult, as the delay distribution is different for each advertiser, is long-tailed, often does not follow any particular class of parametric distributions, and can change over time. We tackle these challenges using an unbiased estimation model based …
Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）
Recommender system, as an essential part of modern e-commerce, consists of two fundamental modules, namely Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) prediction. While CVR has a direct impact on the purchasing volume, its prediction is well-known challenging due to the Sample Selection Bias (SSB) and Data Sparsity (DS) issues. Although existing methods, typically built on the user sequential behavior path ``impression$\to$click$\to$purchase'', is effective for dealing with SSB issue, they still struggle to address the DS issue due to rare purchase training samples. Observing that users…
School of Artificial Intelligence, Jilin University（吉林大学人工智能学院）；Baidu Inc.（百度公司）；International Center of Future Science, Jilin University（吉林大学未来科学国际中心）；Key Laboratory of Symbolic Computation and Knowledge Engineering of Ministry of Education, Jilin University（吉林大学符号计算与知识工程教育部重点实验室）
Post-click conversion, as a strong signal indicating the user preference, is salutary for building recommender systems. However, accurately estimating the post-click conversion rate (CVR) is challenging due to the selection bias, i.e., the observed clicked events usually happen on users' preferred items. Currently, most existing methods utilize counterfactual learning to debias recommender systems. Among them, the doubly robust (DR) estimator has achieved competitive performance by combining the error imputation based (EIB) estimator and the inverse propensity score (IPS) estimator in a doubly…
Tooso Labs（Tooso实验室）；Queen Mary University（伦敦玛丽女王大学）
Knowing if a user is a buyer or window shopper solely based on clickstream data is of crucial importance for e-commerce platforms seeking to implement real-time accurate NBA (next best action) policies. However, due to the low frequency of conversion events and the noisiness of browsing data, classifying user sessions is very challenging. In this paper, we address the clickstream classification problem in the eCommerce industry and present three major contributions to the burgeoning field of AI-for-retail: first, we collected, normalized and prepared a novel dataset of live shopping sessions f…
Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab（华为诺亚方舟实验室）；Peking University（北京大学）；Beijing Technology and Business University（北京工商大学）；Huawei Hong Kong Theory Lab（华为香港理论实验室）
Post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for discovering user interests and increasing platform revenues in a range of industrial applications. One of the most challenging problems of this task is the existence of severe selection bias caused by the inherent self-selection behavior of users and the item selection process of systems. Currently, doubly robust (DR) learning approaches achieve the state-of-the-art performance for debiasing CVR prediction. However, in this paper, by theoretically analyzing the bias, variance and generalization bounds of DR methods, we find t…
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
In online advertising, the Internet users may be exposed to a sequence of different ad campaigns, i.e., display ads, search, or referrals from multiple channels, before led up to any final sales conversion and transaction. For both campaigners and publishers, it is fundamentally critical to estimate the contribution from ad campaign touch-points during the customer journey (conversion funnel) and assign the right credit to the right ad exposure accordingly. However, the existing research on the multi-touch attribution problem lacks a principled way of utilizing the users' pre-conversion action…
FedAds: A Benchmark for Privacy-Preserving CVR Estimation with Vertical Federated Learning
Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州））
Click-through rate (CTR) and post-click conversion rate (CVR) predictions are two fundamental modules in industrial ranking systems such as recommender systems, advertising, and search engines. Since CVR involves much fewer samples than CTR (known as the CVR data sparsity problem), most of the existing works try to leverage CTR&CVR multi-task learning to improve CVR performance. However, typical coarse-grained sub-network/layer sharing methods may introduce conflicts and lead to performance degradation, since not every neuron or neuron connection in one layer should be shared between CVR and C…
Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial in E-commerce. However, CVR prediction usually suffers from three major challenges in practice: i) data sparsity: compared with impressions, conversion samples are often extremely scarce; ii) sample selection bias: conventional CVR models are trained with clicked impressions while making inference on the entire space of all impressions; iii) delayed feedback: many conversions can only be observed after a relatively long and random delay since clicks happened, resulting in many false negative labels during training. Previous stud…
Yahoo Gemini native advertising marketplace serves billions of impressions daily, to hundreds millions of unique users, and reaches a yearly revenue of many hundreds of millions USDs. Powering Gemini native models for predicting advertise (ad) event probabilities, such as conversions and clicks, is OFFSET - a feature enhanced collaborative-filtering (CF) based event prediction algorithm. The predicted probabilities are then used in Gemini native auctions to determine which ads to present for every serving event (impression). Dynamic creative optimization (DCO) is a recent Gemini native product…
Huawei London Research Centre（华为伦敦研究中心）；Huawei Ireland Research Centre（华为爱尔兰研究中心）
In Federated Learning (FL) of click-through rate (CTR) prediction, users' data is not shared for privacy protection. The learning is performed by training locally on client devices and communicating only model changes to the server. There are two main challenges: (i) the client heterogeneity, making FL algorithms that use the weighted averaging to aggregate model updates from the clients have slow progress and unsatisfactory learning results; and (ii) the difficulty of tuning the server learning rate with trial-and-error methodology due to the big computation time and resources needed for each…
College of Information Science and Engineering（信息科学与工程学院）；Ningbo University（宁波大学）
Recommender System (RS) is currently an effective way to solve information overload. To meet users' next click behavior, RS needs to collect users' personal information and behavior to achieve a comprehensive and profound user preference perception. However, these centrally collected data are privacy-sensitive, and any leakage may cause severe problems to both users and service providers. This paper proposed a novel privacy-preserved recommender system framework (PPRSF), through the application of federated learning paradigm, to enable the recommendation algorithm to be trained and carry out i…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Mozilla；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）
We propose a hybrid model of differential privacy that considers a combination of regular and opt-in users who desire the differential privacy guarantees of the local privacy model and the trusted curator model, respectively. We demonstrate that within this model, it is possible to design a new type of blended algorithm for the task of privately computing the head of a search log. This blended approach provides significant improvements in the utility of obtained data compared to related work while providing users with their desired privacy guarantees. Specifically, on two large search click da…
In online advertising, it is highly important to predict the probability and the value of a conversion (e.g., a purchase). It not only impacts user experience by showing relevant ads, but also affects ROI of advertisers and revenue of marketplaces. Unlike clicks, which often occur within minutes after impressions, conversions are expected to happen over a long period of time (e.g., 30 days for online shopping). It creates a challenge, as the true labels are only available after the long delays. Either inaccurate labels (partial conversions) are used, or models are trained on stale data (e.g., …
Chiba Institute of Technology（千叶工业大学）；CyberAgent, Inc.（CyberAgent公司）
Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users. There is generally a time delay (i.e., so-called {\it delayed feedback}) between the ad click and conversion. Owing to the delayed feedback, samples that are converted after an observation period may be treated as negative. To overcome this drawback, CVR prediction assuming that the time delay follows an ex…
Entire Space Counterfactual Learning for Reliable Content Recommendations
State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University（工业控制技术国家重点实验室，控制科学与工程学院，浙江大学）；School of Automation, Central South University（自动化学院，中南大学）；Center for Data Science, Peking University（数据科学中心，北京大学）
Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is one of the most central tasks in online advertising systems. Recent deep learning-based models that exploit feature embedding and high-order data nonlinearity have shown dramatic successes in CTR prediction. However, these models work poorly on cold-start ads with new IDs, whose embeddings are not well learned yet. In this paper, we propose Graph Meta Embedding (GME) models that can rapidly learn how to generate desirable initial embeddings for new ad IDs based on graph neural networks and meta learning. Previous works address this problem from the new ad…
In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display advertising as well as Real-Time Bidding (RTB). In this work, we introduce an enhanced method for ad event prediction (i.e. clicks, conversions) by proposing a new efficient feature engineering approach. A large real-world event-based dataset of a running marketing campaign is used to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed prediction algorithm. The results illustr…
Conversion prediction plays an important role in online advertising since Cost-Per-Action (CPA) has become one of the primary campaign performance objectives in the industry. Unlike click prediction, conversions have different types in nature, and each type may be associated with different decisive factors. In this paper, we formulate conversion prediction as a multi-task learning problem, so that the prediction models for different types of conversions can be learned together. These models share feature representations, but have their specific parameters, providing the benefit of information-…
In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is fundamental in estimating the value of displaying the advertisement. However, there is a relatively long time delay between a click and its resultant conversion. Because of the delayed feedback, some positive instances at the training period are labeled as negative because some conversions have not yet occurred when training data are gathered. As a result, the conditional label distributions differ between the training da…
Brave Software（Brave软件公司）；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）
Recommender systems are commonly trained on centrally collected user interaction data like views or clicks. This practice however raises serious privacy concerns regarding the recommender's collection and handling of potentially sensitive data. Several privacy-aware recommender systems have been proposed in recent literature, but comparatively little attention has been given to systems at the intersection of implicit feedback and privacy. To address this shortcoming, we propose a practical federated recommender system for implicit data under user-level local differential privacy (LDP). The pri…
Multiple content providers rely on native advertisement for revenue by placing ads within the organic content of their pages. We refer to this setting as ``queryless'' to differentiate from search advertisement where a user submits a search query and gets back related ads. Understanding user intent is critical because relevant ads improve user experience and increase the likelihood of delivering clicks that have value to our advertisers. This paper presents Multi-Channel Sequential Behavior Network (MC-SBN), a deep learning approach for embedding users and ads in a semantic space in which rele…
Tokyo Institute of Technology（东京工业大学）；CyberAgent, Inc.（赛博艾坚特公司）
In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for estimating the value of displaying an advertisement to a user. There are two main challenges in CVR prediction due to delayed feedback. First, some positive labels are not correctly observed in training data because some conversions do not occur immediately after a click. Second, delay mechanisms are not uniform among instances, meaning some positive feedback are much more frequently observed than others. It is widely …
Predicting keywords performance, such as number of impressions, click-through rate (CTR), conversion rate (CVR), revenue per click (RPC), and cost per click (CPC), is critical for sponsored search in the online advertising industry. An interesting phenomenon is that, despite the size of the overall data, the data are very sparse at the individual unit level. To overcome the sparsity and leverage hierarchical information across the data structure, we propose a Dynamic Hierarchical Empirical Bayesian (DHEB) model that dynamically determines the hierarchy through a data-driven process and provide…
Accurately predicting conversions in advertisements is generally a challenging task, because such conversions do not occur frequently. In this paper, we propose a new framework to support creating high-performing ad creatives, including the accurate prediction of ad creative text conversions before delivering to the consumer. The proposed framework includes three key ideas: multi-task learning, conditional attention, and attention highlighting. Multi-task learning is an idea for improving the prediction accuracy of conversion, which predicts clicks and conversions simultaneously, to solve the …
User-based attribute information, such as age and gender, is usually considered as user privacy information. It is difficult for enterprises to obtain user-based privacy attribute information. However, user-based privacy attribute information has a wide range of applications in personalized services, user behavior analysis and other aspects. this paper advances the HetPathMine model and puts forward TPathMine model. With applying the number of clicks of attributes under each node to express the user's emotional preference information, optimizations of the solution of meta-path weight are also …
Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the most critical tasks for digital display advertising. Commercial systems often require to update models in an online learning manner to catch up with the evolving data distribution. However, conversions usually do not happen immediately after a user click. This may result in inaccurate labeling, which is called delayed feedback problem. In previous studies, delayed feedback problem is handled either by waiting positive label for a long period of time, or by consuming the negative sample on its arrival and then insert a positive duplicate when a con…
Online advertising and product recommendation are important domains of applications for multi-armed bandit methods. In these fields, the reward that is immediately available is most often only a proxy for the actual outcome of interest, which we refer to as a conversion. For instance, in web advertising, clicks can be observed within a few seconds after an ad display but the corresponding sale --if any-- will take hours, if not days to happen. This paper proposes and investigates a new stochas-tic multi-armed bandit model in the framework proposed by Chapelle (2014) --based on empirical studie…
