Accurately predicting customer churn using large scale time-series data is a common problem facing many business domains. The creation of model features across various time windows for training and testing can be particularly challenging due to temporal issues common to time-series data. In this paper, we will explore the application of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) on a customer dataset with a wide-variety of temporal features in order to create a highly-accurate customer churn model. In particular, we describe an effective method for handling temporally sensitive feature engineering. The proposed model was submitted in the WSDM Cup 2018 Churn Challenge and achieved first-place out of 575 teams.
Framed Data Inc（Framed Data 公司）；New York University（纽约大学）；Data Science Institute at Lancaster University（兰卡斯特大学数据科学研究所）
As companies increase their efforts in retaining customers, being able to predict accurately ahead of time, whether a customer will churn in the foreseeable future is an extremely powerful tool for any marketing team. The paper describes in depth the application of Deep Learning in the problem of churn prediction. Using abstract feature vectors, that can generated on any subscription based company's user event logs, the paper proves that through the use of the intrinsic property of Deep Neural Networks (learning secondary features in an unsupervised manner), the complete pipeline can be applie…
True Corporation Public Company Limited（True Corporation 大众有限公司）；King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi（吞武里蒙固国王理工大学）；International Business Machines Corporation（国际商业机器公司）
Customer temporal behavioral data was represented as images in order to perform churn prediction by leveraging deep learning architectures prominent in image classification. Supervised learning was performed on labeled data of over 6 million customers using deep convolutional neural networks, which achieved an AUC of 0.743 on the test dataset using no more than 12 temporal features for each customer. Unsupervised learning was conducted using autoencoders to better understand the reasons for customer churn. Images that maximally activate the hidden units of an autoencoder trained with churned c…
With the growing competition in banking industry, banks are required to follow customer retention strategies while they are trying to increase their market share by acquiring new customers. This study compares the performance of six supervised classification techniques to suggest an efficient model to predict customer churn in banking industry, given 10 demographic and personal attributes from 10000 customers of European banks. The effect of feature selection, class imbalance, and outliers will be discussed for ANN and random forest as the two competing models. As shown, unlike random forest, …
Modelling customer churn for the retail industry in a deep learning based sequential framework
University of Essex（埃塞克斯大学）；Profusion Media Ltd.（Profusion传媒有限公司）；Essex Business School（埃塞克斯商学院）；Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg（埃尔朗根-纽伦堡弗里德里希-亚历山大大学）
Customer churn is a major problem and one of the most important concerns for large companies. Due to the direct effect on the revenues of the companies, especially in the telecom field, companies are seeking to develop means to predict potential customer to churn. Therefore, finding factors that increase customer churn is important to take necessary actions to reduce this churn. The main contribution of our work is to develop a churn prediction model which assists telecom operators to predict customers who are most likely subject to churn. The model developed in this work uses machine learning…
Using big data to analyze consumer behavior can provide effective decision-making tools for preventing customer attrition (churn) in customer relationship management (CRM). Focusing on a CRM dataset with several different categories of factors that impact customer heterogeneity (i.e., usage of self-care service channels, duration of service, and responsiveness to marketing actions), we provide new predictive analytics of customer churn rate based on a machine learning method that enhances the classification of logistic regression by adding a mixed penalty term. The proposed penalized logistic …
Customer retention campaigns increasingly rely on predictive models to detect potential churners in a vast customer base. From the perspective of machine learning, the task of predicting customer churn can be presented as a binary classification problem. Using data on historic behavior, classification algorithms are built with the purpose of accurately predicting the probability of a customer defecting. The predictive churn models are then commonly selected based on accuracy related performance measures such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC). However, these models are often not well aligne…
In this study, a predictive model using Multi-layer Perceptron of Artificial Neural Network architecture was developed to predict customer churn in a financial institution. Previous researches have used supervised machine learning classifiers such as Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Random Forest. These classifiers require human effort to perform feature engineering which leads to over-specified and incomplete feature selection. Therefore, this research developed a model to eliminate manual feature engineering in data preprocessing stage. Fif…
Customer churn prediction is a valuable task in many industries. In telecommunications it presents great challenges, given the high dimensionality of the data, and how difficult it is to identify underlying frustration signatures, which may represent an important driver regarding future churn behaviour. Here, we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical joint model that is able to characterise customer profiles based on how many events take place within different television watching journeys, and how long it takes between events. The model drastically reduces the dimensionality of the data from th…
Life assurance companies typically possess a wealth of data covering multiple systems and databases. These data are often used for analyzing the past and for describing the present. Taking account of the past, the future is mostly forecasted by traditional statistical methods. So far, only a few attempts were undertaken to perform estimations by means of machine learning approaches. In this work, the individual contract cancellation behavior of customers within two partial stocks is modeled by the aid of various classification methods. Partial stocks of private pension and endowment policy are…
Ant Financial Services Group（蚂蚁金融服务集团）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
Secure online transaction is an essential task for e-commerce platforms. Alipay, one of the world's leading cashless payment platform, provides the payment service to both merchants and individual customers. The fraud detection models are built to protect the customers, but stronger demands are raised by the new scenes, which are lacking in training data and labels. The proposed model makes a difference by utilizing the data under similar old scenes and the data under a new scene is treated as the target domain to be promoted. Inspired by this real case in Alipay, we view the problem as a tran…
We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers and mitigate exposure to losses. The system at ASOS provides daily estimates of the future value of every customer and is one of the cornerstones of the personalised shopping experience. The state of the art in this domain uses large numbers of handcrafted features and ensemble reg…
Harman Connected Services India Pvt Ltd.（哈曼互联服务印度私人有限公司）；Zetaglobal（泽塔环球）
Customer Satisfaction is the most important factors in the industry irrespective of domain. Key Driver Analysis is a common practice in data science to help the business to evaluate the same. Understanding key features, which influence the outcome or dependent feature, is highly important in statistical model building. This helps to eliminate not so important factors from the model to minimize noise coming from the features, which does not contribute significantly enough to explain the behavior of the dependent feature, which we want to predict. Personalized Influence Estimation is a technique…
Telecommunications operators (telcos) traditional sources of income, voice and SMS, are shrinking due to customers using over-the-top (OTT) applications such as WhatsApp or Viber. In this challenging environment it is critical for telcos to maintain or grow their market share, by providing users with as good an experience as possible on their network. But the task of extracting customer insights from the vast amounts of data collected by telcos is growing in complexity and scale everey day. How can we measure and predict the quality of a user's experience on a telco network in real-time? That …
