Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The equations may include simple polynomials to partial differential equations. Because of the uptake mechanism of the land and ocean, greenhouse gas emissions can take a while to affect the climate. The IPCC has published reports on how greenhouse gas emissions may affect the average temperature of the troposphere and the predictions show that by the end of the century, we can expect a temperature increase from 0.8 C to 5 C. In this article, I use Linear Regression (LM), Quadratic Regression and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) on monthly GHG data going back several years and try to predict the temperature anomalies based on extrapolation. The results are quite similar to the IPCC reports.
Over the past decade, the number of wildfire has increased significantly around the world, especially in the State of California. The high-level concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) emitted by wildfires aggravates global warming that further increases the risk of more fires. Therefore, an accurate prediction of wildfire occurrence greatly helps in preventing large-scale and long-lasting wildfires and reducing the consequent GHG emissions. Various methods have been explored for wildfire risk prediction. However, the complex correlations among a lot of natural and human factors and wildfire ign…
Upgrading effluent standards of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and repairing sewerage systems leads to contradictions and synergies between water pollution control and climate change mitigation. This affects historical trajectories and characteristics of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from China's WWTPs, which stay inadequately studied. Here we establish emissions inventories of China's WWTPs using plant-level WWTP operational data. We find that removed amount of chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen increased 0.8 and 1.3 times during 2009-2019, while WWTP GHG emissions increased 1.…
Global warming has been changing the planet climate pattern. Carbon emission is one of the big potentials to push the greenhouse gas effect which contributes to global warming. Indonesia has strengthened its climate commitments through NDC with equitable emission reduction targets and strengthened alignment between climate goals and country development goals. The Ministry of State Own Enterprise (SOE) deploys Plantation Company Holding, PTPN for calculating detailed GHG emissions. PTPN is the largest plantation holding company in Indonesia with great potential in carbon credits in the carbon m…
This paper aims to better understand why there was a global warming pause in 2000-2015 and why the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen again in recent years. We present and statistically analyze substantial time-series observed datasets of global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), troposphere-stratosphere temperature climatology, global land surface air temperature, GMST, sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), combined with modeled calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs. The observed and analyzed results show that GLST/SCE has stabilized since the mid-1990s with no signif…
The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of Earth's five most important, greenhouse gases, H$_2$O, CO$_2$, O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$ control the cloud-free, thermal radiative flux from the Earth to outer space. Over 1/3 million lines having strengths as low as $10^{-27}$ cm of the HITRAN database were used to evaluate the dependence of the forcing on the gas concentrations. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere, where there is negligible saturation of the absorption bands, or interference of one type of greenhouse gas with others, the per-molecule forcings are of order $10^{-22}$…
A Bridge Between Climate Science and Economics: OPTiMEM and the Heat Conjecture for Estimation of Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
Butterfly Sciences（蝴蝶科学）；Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado（科罗拉多大学极地高山研究所）；Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University（北亚利桑那大学生态系统科学与社会中心）；Chartered Governance Institute（特许治理学会）；Institute for Strategy, Resilience & Security, University College London（伦敦大学学院战略、韧性与安全研究所）；Climate Central（气候中心）
We discuss how greenhouse gases affect radiation transfer in Earth's atmosphere. We explain how greenhouse gases like water vapor or carbon dioxide, differ from non-greenhouse gases like nitrogen or oxygen. Using simple thermodynamics and fluid mechanics, we show that a planet with sufficiently high concentrations of greenhouse gases must develop a convecting troposphere. The planet must also develop a non-convecting stratosphere above the tropopause. In the simplest approximation of an atmosphere that is transparent to sunlight and has frequency-independent opacity for thermal radiation, one …
Despite reduced insolation in the late Archean, evidence suggests a warm climate which was likely sustained by a stronger greenhouse effect, the so-called Faint Young Sun Problem (FYSP). CO2 and CH4 are generally thought to be the mainstays of this enhanced greenhouse, though many other gases have been proposed. We present high accuracy radiative forcings for CO2, CH4 and 26 other gases, performing the radiative transfer calculations at line-by-line resolution and using HITRAN 2012 line data for background pressures of 0.5, 1, and 2 bar of atmospheric N2. For CO2 to resolve the FYSP alone at 2…
The forcings due to changing concentrations of Earth's five most important, naturally occurring greenhouse gases, H$_2$O, CO$_2$, O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$ as well as CF$_4$ and SF$_6$ were evaluated for the case of a cloud-free atmosphere. The calculation used over 1.5 million lines having strengths as low as $10^{-27}$ cm. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere, where there is negligible saturation of the absorption bands, or interference of one type of greenhouse gas with others, the per-molecule forcings are of order $10^{-22}$ Watts for H$_2$O, CO$_2$, O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$ and o…
The growing concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O (GHG) in the atmosphere are often considered as the dominant cause for the global warming during the past decades. The reported temperature data however do not display a simple correlation with the concentration changes since 1880 so that other reasons are to be considered to contribute notably. An important feature in this context is the shrinking of the polar ice caps observed in recent years. We have studied the direct effect of the loss of global sea ice since 1955 on the mean global temperature estimating the correspondin…
In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50 percent during 1901 to 2015 and is expected to increase by 50 to 200 percent under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, e.g, SSP2 4.5. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall and is a result of a westward expansion of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), facilitated by a westward expansion of t…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global mean climate state, may have played a role for triggering climate transitions of the past (for example during the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition and the build-up of the Antarctic Ice Sheet). Sensitivity simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model are conducted to test these three forcings and their roles for the global climate…
Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning of the anthropogenic influence to individual factors, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is much less robust. Differences in how forcing factors are applied, in their radiative influence and in models' climate sensitivities, substantially influence the response patterns. We find standard optimal detection methodologies cannot fully reconcile this respon…
Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases -- OPTiMEM and the Heat Conjecture(s)
Butterfly Sciences（蝴蝶科学）；Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校北极与高山研究所）；Global Monitoring Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration（美国国家海洋和大气管理局全球监测实验室）；Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University（北亚利桑那大学生态系统科学与社会中心）；London Institute of Banking and Finance（伦敦银行与金融学院）；Climate Central（气候中心）；NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI（美国国家海洋和大气管理局国家环境卫星、数据和信息服务中心）
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is one of the most important greenhouse gases after water vapor (H2O) which plays significant role in the climate process. Accurate space-based measurement of CO2 is of great significance in inferring the location of CO2 sources and sinks. Uncertainties in greenhouse gases (GHG) retrieval process must be minimized to accurately infer the actual amount of the atmospheric species. Clouds pose a large uncertainty in CO2 space-based retrieval process leading, mostly, to an underestimation in the CO2 absorption amount above the cloud layer provided that photons do not perform m…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface air temperature at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres on various time intervals? Such contributions to trends are estimated here from observation data with the simplest empirical models. Trivariate autoregressive models are fitted to the data since the 19th century and used to assess the impact of the anthropogenic forcing together …
Higher concentrations of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) are expected to slightly warm Earth's surface because of increases in radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is the difference in the net upward thermal radiation flux from the Earth through a transparent atmosphere and radiation through an otherwise identical atmosphere with greenhouse gases. Radiative forcing, normally measured in W/m^2, depends on latitude, longitude and altitude, but it is often quoted for the tropopause, about 11 km of altitude for temperate latitudes, or for the top of the atmosphere at around 90 km. For current conc…
This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogenated molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons-CFCs) on atmospheric O3 depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion and the warming theory of CFCs for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets. For O3 loss, new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and …
The contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century has been assessed. It is shown that the consideration of the changes in climate conditions can affect the impact indicators of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, especially over long time horizons. In making decisions, it is necessary to take into account that the role of natural fluxes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from the terrestrial ecosyst…
Increasing greenhouse gases will change many aspects of the Earth's climate, from its annual mean to the frequency of extremes such as heat waves and droughts. Here we report that the current generation of climate models predicts a delay in the seasonal cycle of global rainfall and ocean temperature in response to increasing greenhouse gases, with important implications for the regional monsoons. In particular, the rainy season of the semi-arid African Sahel is projected to start later and become shorter: an undesirable change for local rainfed agriculture and pastoralism. Previous work has hi…
The ultimate climate emergency is a "runaway greenhouse": a hot and water vapour rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only once the surface reaches ~1400K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that Earth will in around 2 billion years as solar luminosity increases. But could we bring on such a catastrophe prematurely, by our current climate-a…
In this study we used HadCRUT4 temperature anomalies for 1950-2013 years in order to investigate properties of recent warming. Our aim was to separate changes produced by short-term ENSO variations and to look on temporal and spatial dynamics of residual temperature anomalies. For this we subtract linear influence of ENSO index from each HadCRUT4 grid box. We found that residual global temperature dynamics looks like staircase function: linear trends for three quasi-stable periods 1950-1987, 1988-1997 and 1998-2013 are near zero and near all warming occurred during two shifts of 1987/1988 and …
Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of research carbon-climate feedbacks remain poorly quantified. The impact of these uncertainties on future climate are of increasing concern, especially in the wake of recent climate negotiations. Emissions, long concentrated in the developed world, are now shifting to developing countries, where the emissions inventories have larger uncertainties. The fraction of an…
Emission metrics, a crucial tool in setting effective equivalences between greenhouse gases, currently require a subjective, arbitrary choice of time horizon. Here, we propose a novel framework that uses a specific temperature goal to calculate the time horizon that aligns with scenarios achieving that temperature goal. We analyze the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 C Scenario Database to find that time horizons that align with the 1.5 and 2 C global warming goals of the Paris Agreement are 24 [90% prediction interval: 7, 41] and 58 [90% PI: 41…
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are valuable tools that consider the interactions between socioeconomic systems and the climate system. Decision-makers and policy analysts employ IAMs to calculate the marginalized monetary cost of climate damages resulting from an incremental emission of a greenhouse gas. Used within the context of regulating anthropogenic methane emissions, this metric is called the social cost of methane (SC-CH$_4$). Because several key IAMs used for social cost estimation contain a simplified model structure that prevents the endogenous modeling of non-CO$_2$ greenhouse…
