利用OPTiMEM和热量猜想来估算未来温室气体的社会成本
A Bridge Between Climate Science and Economics: OPTiMEM and the Heat Conjecture for Estimation of Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
AI总结：
本文提出基于OPTiMEM和热量猜想的方法，用于估算温室气体的社会成本，并通过长期碳债券解决折现争议，同时指出未来气温上升与DICE模型结论的矛盾。
摘要：
我们提出了一种全新的基于物理的方法来估算碳的社会成本（SCC）。为此，我们开发了海洋热含量物理和时间宏观经济模型（OPTiMEM）以估算未来热含量（已分别发表）。热量猜想假设天气损害曲线与海洋热量增加呈随机比例。我们建模碳燃烧，并验证了温室气体（GHG）、温度和海洋热含量（OHC）的数据集。我们表明，4种温室气体：CO2、CH4、N2O和卤代烃的社会成本不能是单一值，而必须用一种经济相空间来表示。我们提出长期碳债券以实现真实折现。这解决了描述主义与规范主义折现争议的 Gordian 节，该争议无法解决。实施这些债券导致新的监控指标：真实美元支出和债券折现率与SC-GHG成本相比，考虑折现尺度的变化，其中折现与纯粹的时间偏好率（PRTP）无关。该热量猜想基于OPTiMEM。OPTiMEM从化石燃料消费函数产生CO2，有18种情景实施以提供不确定性范围。我们提供了1:N年损失风险模型（1:10、1:100、1:1000），政府、工程师和精算师应找到有用。一个实施DICE家族模型碳和增长假设的场景显示，2210年将突破+18°C，2300年将突破+110°C——这两种结果显然与DICE模型的相对乐观结论不兼容。有关于是否拥有足够的低成本化石燃料转换为最小CO2最大能量回报率（EROEI）电力的担忧，如果国家等待太久，以及低EROEI电力受到质疑，因为货币价值依赖于能量。
英文摘要：
We present an entirely new physics founded approach to estimating the social cost of carbon (SCC). For this, we developed our Ocean-Heat-Content Physics and Time Macro Economic Model (OPTiMEM) to estimate future heat content. The heat conjecture assumes that weather damages curves are stochastically proportional to ocean heat increase. We model carbon combustion, validate to datasets for greenhouse gas (GHG), temperature, and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that the social cost of 4 GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O and halogenated hydrocarbons, cannot be single values, but must be represented by a kind of economic phase space. We propose very long-term carbon bonds to implement real discounting. This obviates the Gordian knot of the descriptivist versus prescriptivist discount disagreement that is unsolvable. Implementing these bonds leads to a new monitoring metric: real-dollar spending and bond discount rates compared to SC-GHG cost with variation on the discount scale, where the discount has no relationship to the pure rate of time preference (PRTP). This heat conjecture is based on OPTiMEM. OPTiMEM initiates from a fossil fuel consumption function to produce CO2, with 18 scenarios implemented to provide the uncertainty range. We provide 1:N year loss risk models (1:10, 1:100, 1:1000) that government, engineers, and actuaries should find useful. A scenario implementing DICE family of models carbon and growth assumptions shows +18° C is breached by 2210 CE, and +110° C by 2300 CE -- both of which outcomes are obviously not compatible with the fairly rosy conclusions of DICE models. Concerns are raised about having enough low-cost fossil fuel for conversion to minimal CO$_2$ maximal energy return on energy invested (EROEI) power if nations wait too long, and low EROEI power is questioned because monetary value is dependent on energy.
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