TDCOSMO. I. An exploration of systematic uncertainties in the inference of $H_0$ from time-delay cosmography
M. Millon, A. Galan, F. Courbin, T. Treu, S. H. Suyu, X. Ding, S. Birrer, G. C. -F. Chen, A. J. Shajib, D. Sluse, K. C. Wong, A. Agnello, M. W. Auger, E. J. Buc… 展开作者
M. Millon, A. Galan, F. Courbin, T. Treu, S. H. Suyu, X. Ding, S. Birrer, G. C. -F. Chen, A. J. Shajib, D. Sluse, K. C. Wong, A. Agnello, M. W. Auger, E. J. Buckley-Geer, J. H. H. Chan, T. Collett, C. D. Fassnacht, S. Hilbert, L. V. E. Koopmans, V. Motta, S. Mukherjee, C. E. Rusu, A. Sonnenfeld, C. Spiniello, L. Van de Vyvere
Time-delay cosmography of lensed quasars has achieved 2.4% precision on the measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover and control systematic uncertainties, we investigate three potential sources: 1- stellar kinematics, 2- line-of-sight effects, and 3- the deflector mass model. To meet this goal in a quantitative way, we reproduced the H0LiCOW/SHARP/STRIDES (hereafter TDCOSMO) procedures on a set of real and simulated data, and we find the following. First, stellar kinematics cannot be a dominant source of error or bias since we find that a systematic change of 10% of measured velocity dispersion leads to only a 0.7% shift on $H_0$ from the seven lenses analyzed by TDCOSMO. Second, we find no bias to arise from incorrect estimation of the line-of-sight effects. Third, we show that elliptical composite (stars + dark matter halo), power-law, and cored power-law mass profiles have the flexibility to yield a broad range in $H_0$ values. However, the TDCOSMO procedures that model the data with both composite and power-law mass profiles are informative. If the models agree, as we observe in real systems owing to the "bulge-halo" conspiracy, $H_0$ is recovered precisely and accurately by both models. If the two models disagree, as in the case of some pathological models illustrated here, the TDCOSMO procedure either discriminates between them through the goodness of fit, or it accounts for the discrepancy in the final error bars provided by the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with a reanalysis of six of the TDCOSMO (real) lenses: the composite model yields $74.0^{+1.7}_{-1.8}$ $km.s^{-1}.Mpc^{-1}$, while the power-law model yields $H_0=74.2^{+1.6}_{-1.6}$ $km.s^{-1}.Mpc^{-1}$. In conclusion, we find no evidence of bias or errors larger than the current statistical uncertainties reported by TDCOSMO.
Time-delay cosmography with gravitationally lensed quasars plays an important role in anchoring the absolute distance scale and hence measuring the Hubble constant, $H_{0}$, independent of traditional distance ladder methodology. A current potential limitation of time delay distance measurements is the "mass-sheet transformation" (MST) which leaves the lensed imaging unchanged but changes the distance measurements and the derived value of $H_0$. In this work we show that the standard method of addressing the MST in time delay cosmography, through a combination of high-resolution imaging and th…
The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant $H_0=73.3^{+1.7}_{-1.8}$ km s$^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in $H_0$. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with flexible mass models that are maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical approach in which the MST is only constrained by …
TDCOSMO XIX. Measuring stellar velocity dispersion with sub-percent accuracy for cosmography
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Independent University, Bangladesh（孟加拉国独立大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Stony Brook University（石溪大学）
Strong lensing time delays can measure the Hubble constant H$_0$ independent of any other probe. Assuming commonly used forms for the radial mass density profile of the lenses, a 2\% precision has been achieved with 7 Time-Delay Cosmography (TDCOSMO) lenses, in tension with the H$_0$ from the cosmic microwave background. However, without assumptions on the radial mass density profile -- and relying exclusively on stellar kinematics to break the mass-sheet degeneracy -- the precision drops to 8\% with the current data of the 7 TDCOSMO lenses, insufficient to resolve the H$_0$ tension. With the …
The largest source of systematic errors in the time-delay cosmography method likely arises from the lens model mass distribution, where an inaccurate choice of model could in principle bias the value of $H_0$. A Bayesian hierarchical framework has been proposed which combines lens systems with kinematic data, constraining the mass profile shape at a population level. The framework has been previously validated on a small sample of lensing galaxies drawn from hydro-simulations. The goal of this work is to expand the validation to a more general set of lenses consistent with observed systems, as…
TDCOSMO XXIV. First spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy obtained using JWST-NIRSpec to improve time-delay cosmography
Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学卡弗里宇宙物理学研究所）；Center for Astronomy, Space Science and Astrophysics, Independent University, Bangladesh（孟加拉独立大学天文学、空间科学与天体物理中心）；Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校物理与天文系）；Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Natural Sciences, Physics Department（慕尼黑工业大学自然科学院物理系）；Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics（马克斯·普朗克天体物理学研究所）；Space Telescope Science Institute（太空望远镜科学研究所）；Sub-Department of Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford（牛津大学物理系天体物理子部门）
To use strong gravitational lenses as an astrophysical or cosmological probe, models of their mass distributions are often needed. We present a new, time-efficient automation code for uniform modeling of strongly lensed quasars with GLEE, a lens modeling software, for high-resolution multi-band data. By using the observed positions of the lensed quasars and the spatially extended surface brightness distribution of the lensed quasar host galaxy, we obtain a model of the mass distribution of the lens galaxy. We apply this uniform modeling pipeline to a sample of nine strongly lensed quasars with…
Time delay cosmography uses the arrival time delays between images in strong gravitational lenses to measure cosmological parameters, in particular the Hubble constant $H_0$. The lens models used in time delay cosmography omit dark matter subhalos and line-of-sight halos because their effects are assumed to be negligible. We explicitly quantify this assumption by analyzing mock lens systems that include full populations of dark matter subhalos and line-of-sight halos, applying the same modeling assumptions used in the literature to infer $H_0$. We base the mock lenses on six quadruply-imaged q…
The importance of alternative methods for measuring the Hubble constant, such as time-delay cosmography, is highlighted by the recent Hubble tension. It is paramount to thoroughly investigate and rule out systematic biases in all measurement methods before we can accept new physics as the source of this tension. In this study, we perform a check for systematic biases in the lens modelling procedure of time-delay cosmography by comparing independent and blind time-delay predictions of the system WGD 2038-4008 from two teams using two different software programs: GLEE and LENSTRONOMY. The predic…
TDCOSMO XXXI: New techniques in line-of-sight studies of time delay lenses
CNRS & Université de Montpellier（法国国家科学研究中心与蒙彼利埃大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik（马克斯·普朗克天体物理研究所）；Université de Genève（日内瓦大学）
TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging
Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校物理与天文系）；Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University（纽约州立大学石溪分校物理与天文系）；Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学天文与天体物理系）；Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学卡弗里宇宙物理学研究所）；Center for Astronomy, Space Science and Astrophysics, Independent University, Bangladesh（孟加拉国独立大学天文学、空间科学与天体物理中心）；Research Center for the Early Universe, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo（东京大学理学研究科早期宇宙研究中心）；IPAC, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院红外处理分析中心）；Space Telescope Science Institute（太空望远镜科学研究所）
TDCOSMO XXVI: Uniform lens modeling of eight doubly imaged quasars
Stony Brook University（石溪大学）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Independent University, Bangladesh（孟加拉独立大学）；Stockholm University（斯德哥尔摩大学）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Université de Genève（日内瓦大学）；Universidad de Valparaíso（瓦尔帕莱索大学）；University of Liège（列日大学）；Universitat de Barcelona（巴塞罗那大学）；Institut Català de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA)（加泰罗尼亚高级研究所）；Institut dEstudis Espacials de Catalunya (IEEC)（加泰罗尼亚空间研究研究所）
TDCOSMO. XXIII. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the doubly lensed quasar HE1104-1805
The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)（洛桑联邦理工学院）；Universitat de Barcelona (IEEC-UB)（巴塞罗那大学）；Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA)（加泰罗尼亚高级研究学院）；UC Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik（马克斯·普朗克天体物理学研究所）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Liège Université（列日大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Stony Brook University（石溪大学）；Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory（费米国家加速器实验室）
本文利用双镜像类星体HE1104-1805测量哈勃常数，通过结合多 telescope 数据测量时间延迟、恒星速度弥散、费马势差和收敛，采用幂律质量模型得出H_0=64.2±5.8xλ_int km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹。
TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays
Stony Brook University（石溪大学）；Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory（费米国家加速器实验室）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学卡弗里宇宙学物理研究所）；SLAC National Laboratory（斯坦福直线加速器中心）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Universitat de Barcelona（巴塞罗那大学）；Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA)（加泰罗尼亚高级研究学院）；European Southern Observatory（欧洲南方天文台）；Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)（洛桑联邦理工学院）；UC Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）
TDCOSMO 2025利用强引力透镜时间延迟数据，结合超新星数据，得出H₀=71.6±3.9 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹的宇宙学约束，并在多种宇宙学模型中保持一致性。
TDCOSMO XXIX: JWST/NIRSpec IFU Spatially Resolved Kinematics of Three Time-delay Lenses
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Independent University, Bangladesh（孟加拉独立大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Space Telescope Science Institute（太空望远镜科学研究所）；Stony Brook University（石溪大学）；Tohoku University（东北大学）
The time delay between the arrival of photons of multiple images of time variable sources can be used to constrain absolute distances in the Universe (Refsdal 1964), and in turn obtain a direct estimate of the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters. To convert the time delay into distances, it is well known that the gravitational potential of the main deflector and the contribution of the matter along the line-of-sight need to be known to a sufficient level of precision. In this paper, we discuss a new astrometric requirement that is becoming important as time-delay cosmography impr…
The time delays between the multiple images of a strong lens system, together with a model of the lens mass distribution, allow a one-step measurement of a cosmological distance, namely, the "time-delay distance" of the lens (D_dt) that encodes cosmological information. The time-delay distance depends sensitively on the radial profile slope of the lens mass distribution; consequently, the lens slope must be accurately constrained for cosmological studies. We show that the slope cannot be constrained in two-image systems with single-component compact sources, whereas it can be constrained in sy…
We explore the use of strong lensing by galaxy clusters to constrain the dark energy equation of state and its possible time variation. The cores of massive clusters often contain several multiply imaged systems of background galaxies at different redshifts. The locations of lensed images can be used to constrain cosmological parameters due to their dependence on the ratio of angular diameter distances. We employ Monte-Carlo simulations of cluster lenses, including the contribution from substructures, to assess the feasibility of this potentially powerful technique. At the present, parametric …
We study possible systematic effects on the values of the cosmological parameters measured through strong lensing analyses of the HFF galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223. We use the observed positions of a large set of spectroscopically selected multiple images, including those of supernova "Refsdal" with their estimated time delays. Starting from our reference model in a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, published in Grillo et al. (2018), we confirm the relevance of the longest measurable time delay, between SX and S1, and an approximately linear relation between its value and that of $H_{0}$. We perform t…
TDCOSMO XXV: Measuring H0 to 6.5% precision with quasar strong lensing and maximally flexible mass-sheet dynamics
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Université de Genève（日内瓦大学）；European Southern Observatory（欧洲南方天文台）；Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)（洛桑联邦理工学院）；Stony Brook University（石溪大学）；Université de Montpellier（蒙彼利埃大学）
基于四重成像类星体SDSSJ1433+6007，结合哈勃空间望远镜成像、时间延迟监测和空间分辨恒星运动学，通过联合透镜和动力学模型并考虑质量片变换的最大灵活性，在平坦ΛCDM宇宙学下以6.5%精度测得哈勃常数$H_0 = 73.2^{+4.8}_{-4.7}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$，并发现内部质量片参数$λ_{\rm int}=1.12^{+0.05}_{-0.06}$与1有2σ偏离。
We present extended modeling of the strong lens system RXJ1131-1231 with archival data in two HST bands in combination with existing line-of-sight contribution and velocity dispersion estimates. Our focus is on source size and its influence on time-delay cosmography. We therefore examine the impact of mass-sheet degeneracy and especially the degeneracy pointed out by Schneider & Sluse (2013) using the source reconstruction scale. We also extend on previous work by further exploring the effects of priors on the kinematics of the lens and the external convergence in the environment of the lensin…
We derive peculiar velocities for the 6dF Galaxy Survey (6dFGS) and describe the velocity field of the nearby ($z<0.055$) southern hemisphere. The survey comprises 8885 galaxies for which we have previously reported Fundamental Plane data. We obtain peculiar velocity probability distributions for the redshift space positions of each of these galaxies using a Bayesian approach. Accounting for selection bias, we find that the logarithmic distance uncertainty is 0.11 dex, corresponding to $26\%$ in linear distance. We use adaptive kernel smoothing to map the observed 6dFGS velocity field out to $…
TDCOSMO XXVIII. The Hubble constant from the quadruply lensed quasar J1537$-$3010 with precise time delays
University of Geneva（日内瓦大学）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik（马克斯·普朗克天体物理学研究所）；Laboratoire Univers et Particules de Montpellier (LUPM), CNRS & Université Montpellier（蒙彼利埃宇宙与粒子实验室（LUPM），法国国家科学研究中心与蒙彼利埃大学）；STAR Institute, University of Liège（列日大学STAR研究所）；Armagh Observatory and Planetarium（阿马天文台和天文馆）；Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory（费米国家加速器实验室）
We present a determination of the Hubble constant from the joint, free-form analysis of 8 strongly, quadruply lensing systems. In the concordance cosmology, we find $H_0 = 71.8^{+3.9}_{-3.3}\,\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ with a precision of $4.97\%$. This is in agreement with the latest measurements from Supernovae Type Ia and Planck observations of the cosmic microwave background. Our precision is lower compared to these and other recent time-delay cosmography determinations, because our modelling strategies reflect the systematic uncertainties of lensing degeneracies. We …
We present a measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) and other cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of six gravitationally lensed quasars with measured time delays. All lenses except the first are analyzed blindly with respect to the cosmological parameters. In a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, we find $H_{0} = 73.3_{-1.8}^{+1.7}$, a 2.4% precision measurement, in agreement with local measurements of $H_{0}$ from type Ia supernovae calibrated by the distance ladder, but in $3.1σ$ tension with $Planck$ observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). This method is completely indepen…
- Constraining the cosmological parameters and understanding Dark Energy have tremendous implications for the nature of the Universe and its physical laws. - The pervasive limit of systematic uncertainties reached by cosmography based on Cepheids and Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) warrants a search for complementary approaches. - Type II SNe have been shown to offer such a path. Their distances can be well constrained by luminosity-based or geometric methods. Competing, complementary, and concerted efforts are underway, to explore and exploit those objects that are extremely well matched to next …
Accurate and precise measurements of the Hubble constant are critical for testing our current standard cosmological model and revealing possibly new physics. With Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging, each strong gravitational lens system with measured time delays can allow one to determine the Hubble constant with an uncertainty of $\sim 7\%$. Since HST will not last forever, we explore adaptive-optics (AO) imaging as an alternative that can provide higher angular resolution than HST imaging but has a less stable point spread function (PSF) due to atmospheric distortion. To make AO imaging us…
Microlensing not only brings extra magnification lightcurves on top of the intrinsic ones but also shifts them in time domain, making the actual time-delays between images of strongly lensed active galactic nucleus change on the $\sim$ day(s) light-crossing time scale of the emission region. The microlensing-induced time-delays would bias strong lens time-delay cosmography if uncounted. However, due to the uncertainties of the disk size and the disk model, the impact is hard to accurately estimate. In this work, we study how to reduce the bias with designed observation strategy based on a stan…
We investigate strongly gravitationally lensed type II supernovae (LSNe II) for time-delay cosmography incorporating microlensing effects, which expands on previous microlensing studies of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We use the radiative-transfer code ${\rm \small TARDIS}$ to recreate five spectra of the prototypical SN 1999em at different times within the plateau phase of the light curve. The microlensing-induced deformations of the spectra and light curves are calculated by placing the SN into magnification maps generated with the code ${\rm \small GERLUMPH}$. We study the impact of microle…
BayeSN-TD: Time Delay and $H_0$ Estimation for Lensed SN H0pe
Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Institute for Cosmology（天文研究所与卡弗里宇宙学研究所）；The Oskar Klein Centre, Department of Physics, Stockholm University（斯德哥尔摩大学物理系奥谢·克莱因中心）；Statistical Laboratory, DPMMS, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学DPMMS统计实验室）；Department of Physics & Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校物理与天文学系）；Space Telescope Science Institute（太空望远镜科学研究所）；Department of Astronomy, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校天文学系）
Testing Lens Models of PLCK G165.7+67.0 Using Lensed SN H0pe
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；NSF-Simons AI for the Sky (SkAI) Institute（NSF-西蒙斯天空人工智能研究所）；Space Telescope Science Institute（太空望远镜科学研究所）；University of Arizona（亚利桑那大学）；Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC-UC)（坎塔布里亚物理研究所（CSIC-UC））；The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Institute for Cosmology, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学天文研究所与卡弗里宇宙学研究所）
HOLISMOKES -- XVIII. Cosmology with strongly lensed type II supernovae: Effects of instrumental setups on $H_0$
Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik（马克斯·普朗克天体物理研究所）；Technische Universität München（慕尼黑工业大学）；Exzellenzcluster ORIGINS（ORIGINS卓越集群）；STAR Institute（STAR研究所）
HST imaging, pipeline modeling, and time-delay predictions of 2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged lensed quasars
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；STFC Hartree Centre（STFC哈特里中心）；Universidad Andres Bello（安德烈斯贝略大学）；Stony Brook University（石溪大学）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；University of San Francisco（旧金山大学）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Kavli Institute for Cosmology, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学卡弗里宇宙学研究所）；Staples High School（斯塔普尔斯高中）；Universidad de Valparaíso（瓦尔帕莱索大学）
