Data-based Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimal Power Flow, Part II: Case studies
The University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；The University of Colorado, Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
Yi Guo, Kyri Baker, Emiliano Dall'Anese, Zechun Hu, Tyler H. Summers
This is the second part of a two-part paper on data-based distributionally robust stochastic optimal power flow (OPF). The general problem formulation and methodology have been presented in Part I [1]. Here, we present extensive numerical experiments in both distribution and transmission networks to illustrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed methodology for balancing efficiency, constraint violation risk, and out-of-sample performance. On the distribution side, the method mitigates overvoltages due to high photovoltaic penetration using local energy storage devices. On the transmission side, the method reduces N-1 security line flow constraint risks due to high wind penetration using reserve policies for controllable generators. In both cases, the data-based distributionally robust model predictive control (MPC) algorithm explicitly utilizes forecast error training datasets, which can be updated online. The numerical results illustrate inherent tradeoffs between the operational costs, risks of constraints violations, and out-of-sample performance, offering systematic techniques for system operators to balance these objectives.
Distributionally robust control (DRC) aims to effectively manage distributional ambiguity in stochastic systems. While most existing works address inaccurate distributional information in fully observable settings, we consider a partially observable DRC problem for discrete-time linear systems using the Wasserstein metric. For a tractable solution, we propose a novel approximation method exploiting the Gelbrich bound of Wasserstein distance. Using techniques from modern distributionally robust optimization, we derive a closed-form expression for the optimal control policy and a tractable semid…
A data-driven MPC scheme is proposed to safely control constrained stochastic linear systems using distributionally robust optimization. Distributionally robust constraints based on the Wasserstein metric are imposed to bound the state constraint violations in the presence of process disturbance. A feedback control law is solved to guarantee that the predicted states comply with constraints. The stochastic constraints are satisfied with regard to the worst-case distribution within the Wasserstein ball centered at their discrete empirical probability distribution. The resulting distributionally…
Stochastic Optimal Power Flow Based on Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization
The University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；The University of Colorado, Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；National Renewable Energy Laboratory（国家可再生能源实验室）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
In this paper, we present a sequential sampling-based algorithm for the two-stage distributionally robust linear programming (2-DRLP) models. The 2-DRLP models are defined over a general class of ambiguity sets with discrete or continuous probability distributions. The algorithm is a distributionally robust version of the well-known stochastic decomposition algorithm of Higle and Sen (Math. of OR 16(3), 650-669, 1991) for a two-stage stochastic linear program. We refer to the algorithm as the distributionally robust stochastic decomposition (DRSD) method. The key features of the algorithm incl…
We develop a decomposition algorithm for distributionally-robust two-stage stochastic mixed-integer convex cone programs, and its important special case of distributionally-robust two-stage stochastic mixed-integer second order cone programs. This generalizes the algorithm proposed by Sen and Sherali~[Mathematical Programming 106(2): 203-223, 2006]. We show that the proposed algorithm is finitely convergent if the second-stage problems are solved to optimality at incumbent first stage solutions, and solution to an optimization problem to identify worst-case probability distribution is availabl…
We study stochastic optimization problems with chance and risk constraints, where in the latter, risk is quantified in terms of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider the distributionally robust versions of these problems, where the constraints are required to hold for a family of distributions constructed from the observed realizations of the uncertainty via the Wasserstein distance. Our main results establish that if the samples are drawn independently from an underlying distribution and the problems satisfy suitable technical assumptions, then the optimal value and optimizers of …
We formulate pure characteristics demand models under uncertainties of probability distributions as distributionally robust mathematical programs with stochastic complementarity constraints (DRMP-SCC). For any fixed first-stage variable and a random realization, the second-stage problem of DRMP-SCC is a monotone linear complementarity problem (LCP). To deal with uncertainties of probability distributions of the involved random variables in the stochastic LCP, we use the distributionally robust approach. Moreover, we propose an approximation problem with regularization and discretization to sol…
We consider a distributionally robust second-order stochastic dominance constrained optimization problem. We require the dominance constraints hold with respect to all probability distributions in a Wasserstein ball centered at the empirical distribution. We adopt the sample approximation approach to develop a linear programming formulation that provides a lower bound. We propose a novel split-and-dual decomposition framework which provides an upper bound. We establish quantitative convergency for both lower and upper approximations given some constraint qualification conditions. To efficientl…
In this paper, we propose a discretization scheme for the two-stage stochastic linear complementarity problem (LCP) where the underlying random data are continuously distributed. Under some moderate conditions, we derive qualitative and quantitative convergence for the solutions obtained from solving the discretized two-stage stochastic LCP (SLCP). We explain how the discretized two-stage SLCP may be solved by the well-known progressive hedging method (PHM). Moreover, we extend the discussion by considering a two-stage distributionally robust LCP (DRLCP) with moment constraints and proposing a…
This article extends the optimal covariance steering (CS) problem for discrete time linear stochastic systems modeled using moment-based ambiguity sets. To hedge against the uncertainty in the state distributions while performing covariance steering, distributionally robust risk constraints are employed during the optimal allocation of the risk. Specifically, a distributionally robust iterative risk allocation (DR-IRA) formalism is used to solve the optimal risk allocation problem for the CS problem using a two-stage approach. The upper-stage of DR-IRA is a convex problem that optimizes the ri…
In this paper we discuss distributional robustness in the context of stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) for linear time-invariant systems. We derive a simple approximation of the MPC problem under an additive zero-mean i.i.d. noise with quadratic cost. Due to the lack of distributional information, chance constraints are enforced as distributionally robust (DR) chance constraints, which we opt to unify with the concept of probabilistic reachable sets (PRS). For Wasserstein ambiguity sets, we propose a simple convex optimization problem to compute the DR-PRS based on finitely many distu…
We consider stochastic programs conditional on some covariate information, where the only knowledge of the possible relationship between the uncertain parameters and the covariates is reduced to a finite data sample of their joint distribution. By exploiting the close link between the notion of trimmings of a probability measure and the partial mass transportation problem, we construct a data-driven Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework to hedge the decision against the intrinsic error in the process of inferring conditional information from limited joint data. We show that our …
We consider a distributionally robust formulation of stochastic optimization problems arising in statistical learning, where robustness is with respect to uncertainty in the underlying data distribution. Our formulation builds on risk-averse optimization techniques and the theory of coherent risk measures. It uses semi-deviation risk for quantifying uncertainty, allowing us to compute solutions that are robust against perturbations in the population data distribution. We consider a large family of loss functions that can be non-convex and non-smooth and develop an efficient stochastic subgradi…
A high number of electric vehicles (EVs) in the transportation sector necessitates an advanced scheduling framework for e-mobility ecosystem operation as a whole in order to overcome range anxiety and create a viable business model for charging stations (CSs). The framework must account for the stochastic nature of all stakeholders' operations, including EV drivers, CSs, and retailers and their mutual interactions. In this paper, a three-layer joint distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) model is proposed to plan grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) operation in day-ahead…
The stochastic variational inequality problem (SVIP) is an equilibrium model that includes random variables and has been widely applied in various fields such as economics and engineering. Expected residual minimization (ERM) is an established model for obtaining a reasonable solution for the SVIP, and its objective function is an expected value of a suitable merit function for the SVIP. However, the ERM is restricted to the case where the distribution is known in advance. We extend the ERM to ensure the attainment of robust solutions for the SVIP under the uncertainty distribution (the extend…
Facility location decisions significantly impact customer behavior and consequently the resulting demand in a wide range of businesses. Furthermore, sequentially realized uncertain demand enforces strategically determining locations under partial information. To address these issues, we study a facility location problem where the distribution of customer demand is dependent on location decisions. We represent moment information of stochastic demand as a piecewise linear function of facility-location decisions. Then, we propose a decision-dependent distributionally robust optimization model, an…
IBM Research AI（IBM研究院人工智能中心）；Colorado State University-Pueblo（科罗拉多州立大学普韦布洛分校）
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems are increasingly seen as a viable method to train machine learning models for improved model generalization. These min-max formulations, however, are more difficult to solve. We therefore provide a new stochastic gradient descent algorithm to efficiently solve this DRO formulation. Our approach applies gradient descent to the outer minimization formulation and estimates the gradient of the inner maximization based on a sample average approximation. The latter uses a subset of the data in each iteration, progressively increasing the subset siz…
Recently, there has been a growing interest in distributionally robust optimization (DRO) as a principled approach to data-driven decision making. In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust two-stage stochastic optimization problem with discrete scenario support. While much research effort has been devoted to tractable reformulations for DRO problems, especially those with continuous scenario support, few efficient numerical algorithms were developed, and most of them can neither handle the non-smooth second-stage cost function nor the large number of scenarios $K$ effectively. We fi…
In this paper, we focus on a data-driven risk-averse multistage stochastic programming (RMSP) model considering distributional robustness. We optimize the RMSP over the worst-case distribution within an ambiguity set of probability distributions constructed directly from historical data samples. The proposed RMSP is intractable due to the multistage nested minimax structure in its objective function, so we reformulate it into a deterministic equivalent that contains a series of convex combination of expectation and conditional value at risk (CVaR), which can be solved by a customized stochasti…
We consider stochastic gradient estimation using only black-box function evaluations, where the function argument lies within a probability simplex. This problem is motivated from gradient-descent optimization procedures in multiple applications in distributionally robust analysis and inverse model calibration involving decision variables that are probability distributions. We are especially interested in obtaining gradient estimators where one or few sample observations or simulation runs apply simultaneously to all directions. Conventional zeroth-order gradient schemes such as simultaneous p…
This paper proposes a distributionally robust unit commitment approach for microgrids under net load and electricity market price uncertainty. The key thrust of the proposed approach is to leverage the Kullback-Leibler divergence to construct an ambiguity set of probability distributions and formulate an optimization problem that minimizes the expected costs brought about by the worst-case distribution in the ambiguity set. The proposed approach effectively exploits historical data and capitalizes on the k-means clustering algorithm, in conjunction with the soft dynamic time warping score, to …
In this paper, we study a data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm applied to unknown stochastic linear time-invariant systems. The algorithm uses noise-corrupted input/output data to predict future trajectories and compute optimal control policies. To robustify against uncertainties in the input/output data, the control policies are computed to minimize a worst-case expectation of a given objective function. Using techniques from distributionally robust stochastic optimization, we prove that for certain objective functions, the worst-case optimization problem coincides with a regular…
This paper proposes a second-order conic programming (SOCP) approach to solve distributionally robust two-stage stochastic linear programs over 1-Wasserstein balls. We start from the case with distribution uncertainty only in the objective function and exactly reformulate it as an SOCP problem. Then, we study the case with distribution uncertainty only in constraints, and show that such a robust program is generally NP-hard as it involves a norm maximization problem over a polyhedron. However, it is reduced to an SOCP problem if the extreme points of the polyhedron are given as a prior. This m…
A stochastic smoothing framework for nonconvex-nonconcave minEmax problems with applications to Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China（应用数学系，香港理工大学）；Institute for Math & AI, Wuhan (IMAI), Wuhan university, China（数学与人工智能研究院，武汉大学）；Department of Mathematical Sciences Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA（数学科学系，伦斯勒理工学院）
A power system unit commitment (UC) problem considering uncertainties of renewable energy sources is investigated in this paper, through a distributionally robust optimization approach. We assume that the first and second order moments of stochastic parameters can be inferred from historical data, and then employed to model the set of probability distributions. The resulting problem is a two-stage distributionally robust unit commitment with second order moment constraints, and we show that it can be recast as a mixed-integer semidefinite programming (MI-SDP) with finite constraints. The solut…
Distributionally Time-Varying Online Stochastic Optimization under Polyak-Łojasiewicz Condition with Application in Conditional Value-at-Risk Statistical Learning
The Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；The University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）
We study the problem of finite-time constrained optimal control of unknown stochastic linear time-invariant systems, which is the key ingredient of a predictive control algorithm -- albeit typically having access to a model. We propose a novel distributionally robust data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm which uses noise-corrupted input/output data to predict future trajectories and compute optimal control inputs while satisfying output chance constraints. The algorithm is based on (i) a non-parametric representation of the subspace spanning the system behaviour, where past traject…
This paper presents a distributionally robust stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) approach for linear discrete-time systems subject to unbounded and correlated additive disturbances. We consider hard input constraints and state chance constraints, which are approximated as distributionally robust (DR) Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraints over a Wasserstein ambiguity set. The computational complexity is reduced by resorting to a tube-based MPC scheme with indirect feedback, such that the error scenarios can be sampled offline. Recursive feasibility is guaranteed by softening the …
In the optimization under uncertainty, decision-makers first select a wait-and-see policy before any realization of uncertainty and then place a here-and-now decision after the uncertainty has been observed. Two-stage stochastic programming is a popular modeling paradigm for the optimization under uncertainty that the decision-makers first specifies a probability distribution, and then seek the best decisions to jointly optimize the deterministic wait-and-see and expected here-and-now costs. In practice, such a probability distribution may not be fully available but is probably observable thro…
Model predictive control (MPC) is an effective approach to control multivariable dynamic systems with constraints. Most real dynamic models are however affected by plant-model mismatch and process uncertainties, which can lead to closed-loop performance deterioration and constraint violations. Methods such as stochastic MPC (SMPC) have been proposed to alleviate these problems; however, the resulting closed-loop state trajectory might still significantly violate the prescribed constraints if the real system deviates from the assumed disturbance distributions made during the controller design. …
Distributionally robust optimization involves various probability measures in its problem formulation. They can be bundled to constitute a risk functional. For this equivalence, risk functionals constitute a fundamental building block in distributionally robust stochastic programming. Multistage programming requires conditional versions of risk functionals to re-assess future risk after partial realizations and after preceding decisions. This paper discusses a construction of the conditional counterpart of a risk functional by passing its genuine characteristics to its conditional counterparts…
