In this paper we discuss distributional robustness in the context of stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) for linear time-invariant systems. We derive a simple approximation of the MPC problem under an additive zero-mean i.i.d. noise with quadratic cost. Due to the lack of distributional information, chance constraints are enforced as distributionally robust (DR) chance constraints, which we opt to unify with the concept of probabilistic reachable sets (PRS). For Wasserstein ambiguity sets, we propose a simple convex optimization problem to compute the DR-PRS based on finitely many disturbance samples. The paper closes with a numerical example of a double integrator system, highlighting the reliability of the DR-PRS w.r.t. the Wasserstein set and performance of the resulting SMPC.
Many stochastic optimization problems include chance constraints that enforce constraint satisfaction with a specific probability; however, solving an optimization problem with chance constraints assumes that the solver has access to the exact underlying probability distribution, which is often unreasonable. In data-driven applications, it is common instead to use historical data samples as a surrogate to the distribution; however, this comes at a significant computational cost from the added time spent either processing the data or, worse, adding additional variables and constraints to the op…
In this paper, we develop an exact reformulation and a deterministic approximation for distributionally robust joint chance-constrained programmings (DRCCPs) with a general class of convex uncertain constraints under data-driven Wasserstein ambiguity sets. It is known that robust chance constraints can be conservatively approximated by worst-case conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints. It is shown that the proposed worst-case CVaR approximation model can be reformulated as an optimization problem involving biconvex constraints for joint DRCCP. We then derive a convex relaxation of this a…
Chance constrained optimal power flow (OPF) has been recognized as a promising framework to manage the risk from variable renewable energy (VRE). In presence of VRE uncertainties, this paper discusses a distributionally robust chance constrained approximate AC-OPF. The power flow model employed in the proposed OPF formulation combines an exact AC power flow model at the nominal operation point and an approximate linear power flow model to reflect the system response under uncertainties. The ambiguity set employed in the distributionally robust formulation is the Wasserstein ball centered at th…
We study the problem of finite-time constrained optimal control of unknown stochastic linear time-invariant systems, which is the key ingredient of a predictive control algorithm -- albeit typically having access to a model. We propose a novel distributionally robust data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm which uses noise-corrupted input/output data to predict future trajectories and compute optimal control inputs while satisfying output chance constraints. The algorithm is based on (i) a non-parametric representation of the subspace spanning the system behaviour, where past traject…
This paper presents a distributionally robust stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) approach for linear discrete-time systems subject to unbounded and correlated additive disturbances. We consider hard input constraints and state chance constraints, which are approximated as distributionally robust (DR) Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraints over a Wasserstein ambiguity set. The computational complexity is reduced by resorting to a tube-based MPC scheme with indirect feedback, such that the error scenarios can be sampled offline. Recursive feasibility is guaranteed by softening the …
Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we utilize the right-hand si…
This paper studies a distributionally robust chance constrained program (DRCCP) with Wasserstein ambiguity set, where the uncertain constraints should be satisfied with a probability at least a given threshold for all the probability distributions of the uncertain parameters within a chosen Wasserstein distance from an empirical distribution. In this work, we investigate equivalent reformulations and approximations of such problems. We first show that a DRCCP can be reformulated as a conditional value-at-risk constrained optimization problem, and thus admits tight inner and outer approximation…
Given $X \subset R^n$, $\varepsilon \in (0,1)$, a parametrized family of probability distributions $(μ\_{a})\_{a\in A}$ on $Ω\subset R^p$, we consider the feasible set $X^*\_\varepsilon\subset X$ associated with the {\em distributionally robust} chance-constraint \[X^*\_\varepsilon\,=\,\{x \in X :\:{\rm Prob}\_μ[f(x,ω)\,>\,0]> 1-\varepsilon,\,\forallμ\in M\_a\},\]where $M\_a$ is the set of all possibles mixtures of distributions $μ\_a$, $a\in A$.For instance and typically, the family$M\_a$ is the set of all mixtures ofGaussian distributions on $R$ with mean and standard deviation $a=(a,σ)$ in …
Chance constrained optimal power flow (CC-OPF) formulations have been proposed to minimize operational costs while controlling the risk arising from uncertainties like renewable generation and load consumption. To solve CC-OPF, we often need access to the (true) joint probability distribution of all uncertainties, which is rarely known in practice. A solution based on a biased estimate of the distribution can result in poor reliability. To overcome this challenge, recent work has explored distributionally robust chance constraints, in which the chance constraints are satisfied over a family of…
Increasing integration of renewable generation poses significant challenges to ensure robustness guarantees in real-time energy system decision-making. This work aims to develop a robust optimal transmission switching (OTS) framework that can effectively relieve grid congestion and mitigate renewable curtailment. We formulate a two-stage distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) problem that assures limited constraint violations for any uncertainty distribution within an ambiguity set. Here, the second-stage recourse variables are represented as linear functions of uncertainty, yieldin…
Markov decision process (MDP) is a decision making framework where a decision maker is interested in maximizing the expected discounted value of a stream of rewards received at future stages at various states which are visited according to a controlled Markov chain. Many algorithms including linear programming methods are available in the literature to compute an optimal policy when the rewards and transition probabilities are deterministic. In this paper, we consider an MDP problem where the transition probabilities are known and the reward vector is a random vector whose distribution is part…
This paper studies distributionally robust chance constrained programs (DRCCPs), where the uncertain constraints must be satisfied with at least a probability of a prespecified threshold for all probability distributions from the Wasserstein ambiguity set. As DRCCPs are often nonconvex and challenging to solve optimally, researchers have been developing various convex inner approximations. Recently, ALSO-X has been proven to outperform the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) approximation of a regular chance constrained program when the deterministic set is convex. In this work, we relax this ass…
We consider exact deterministic mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations of distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) with random right-hand sides over Wasserstein ambiguity sets. The existing MIP formulations are known to have weak continuous relaxation bounds, and, consequently, for hard instances with small radius, or with large problem sizes, the branch-and-bound based solution processes suffer from large optimality gaps even after hours of computation time. This significantly hinders the practical application of the DR-CCP paradigm. Motivated by these challenges, …
The growing amount of fluctuating renewable infeeds and market liberalization increases uncertainty in power system operation. To capture the influence of fluctuations in operational planning, we model the forecast errors of the uncertain in-feeds as random variables and formulate a security constrained optimal power flow using chance constraints. The chance constraints limit the probability of violations of technical constraints, such as generation and transmission limits, but require a tractable reformulation. In this paper, we discuss different analytical reformulations of the chance constr…
In this paper we propose a data-driven distributionally robust Model Predictive Control framework for constrained stochastic systems with unbounded additive disturbances. Recursive feasibility is ensured by optimizing over an linearly interpolated initial state constraint in combination with a simplified affine disturbance feedback policy. We consider a moment-based ambiguity set with data-driven radius for the second moment of the disturbance, where we derive a minimum number of samples in order to ensure user-given confidence bounds on the chance constraints and closed-loop performance. The …
We study stochastic optimization problems with chance and risk constraints, where in the latter, risk is quantified in terms of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider the distributionally robust versions of these problems, where the constraints are required to hold for a family of distributions constructed from the observed realizations of the uncertainty via the Wasserstein distance. Our main results establish that if the samples are drawn independently from an underlying distribution and the problems satisfy suitable technical assumptions, then the optimal value and optimizers of …
Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) over Wasserstein ambiguity sets exhibit attractive out-of-sample performance and admit big-$M$-based mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations with conic constraints. However, the resulting formulations often suffer from scalability issues as sample size increases. To address this shortcoming, we derive stronger formulations that scale well with respect to the sample size. Our focus is on ambiguity sets under the so-called left-hand side (LHS) uncertainty, where the uncertain parameters affect the coefficients of the decision va…
We consider chance-constrained binary knapsack problems, where the weights of items are independent random variables with the means and standard deviations known. The chance constraint can be reformulated as a second-order cone constraint under some assumptions for the probability distribution of the weights. The problem becomes a second-order cone-constrained binary knapsack problem, which is equivalent to a robust binary knapsack problem with an ellipsoidal uncertainty set. We demonstrate that optimal solutions to robust binary knapsack problems with inner and outer polyhedral approximations…
This paper is about a class of distributionally robust model predictive controllers (MPC) for nonlinear stochastic processes that evaluate risk and control performance measures by propagating ambiguity sets in the space of state probability measures. A framework for formulating such ambiguity tube MPC controllers is presented, which is based on modern measure-theoretic methods from the field of optimal transport theory. Moreover, a supermartingale based analysis technique is proposed, leading to stochastic stability results for a large class of distributionally robust controllers for linear an…
This paper studies the problem of distributionally robust model predictive control (MPC) using total variation distance ambiguity sets. For a discrete-time linear system with additive disturbances, we provide a conditional value-at-risk reformulation of the MPC optimization problem that is distributionally robust in the expected cost and chance constraints. The distributionally robust chance constraint is over-approximated as a simpler, tightened chance constraint that reduces the computational burden. Numerical experiments support our results on probabilistic guarantees and computational effi…
College of Engineering, Cornell University（康奈尔大学工程学院）
This paper presents a novel deep learning based data-driven optimization method. A novel generative adversarial network (GAN) based data-driven distributionally robust chance constrained programming framework is proposed. GAN is applied to fully extract distributional information from historical data in a nonparametric and unsupervised way without a priori approximation or assumption. Since GAN utilizes deep neural networks, complicated data distributions and modes can be learned, and it can model uncertainty efficiently and accurately. Distributionally robust chance constrained programming ta…
This paper considers a security constrained dispatch problem involving generation and line contingencies in the presence of the renewable generation. The uncertainty due to renewables is modeled using joint chance-constraint and the mismatch caused by contingencies and renewables are handled using reserves. We consider a distributionally robust approach to solve the chance-constrained program. We assume that samples of the uncertainty are available. Using them, we construct a set of distributions, termed ambiguity set, containing all distributions that are close to the empirical distribution u…
To manage renewable generation and load consumption uncertainty, chance-constrained optimal power flow (OPF) formulations and various solution methodologies have been proposed. However, conventional solution approaches often rely on accurate estimates of uncertainty distributions, which may not exist. When the distributions are not known but can be limited to a set of plausible distributions, termed an ambiguity set, distributionally robust (DR) optimization can be used to ensure that chance constraints hold for all distributions in that set. However, DR OPF yields conservative solutions if th…
This paper is motivated by addressing open questions in distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DRCCP) using the popular Wasserstein ambiguity sets. Specifically, the computational techniques for those programs typically place restrictive assumptions on the constraint functions and the size of the Wasserstein ambiguity sets is often set using costly cross-validation (CV) procedures or conservative measure concentration bounds. In contrast, we propose a practical DRCCP algorithm using kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) ambiguity sets, which we term MMD-DRCCP, to treat general no…
A data-driven MPC scheme is proposed to safely control constrained stochastic linear systems using distributionally robust optimization. Distributionally robust constraints based on the Wasserstein metric are imposed to bound the state constraint violations in the presence of process disturbance. A feedback control law is solved to guarantee that the predicted states comply with constraints. The stochastic constraints are satisfied with regard to the worst-case distribution within the Wasserstein ball centered at their discrete empirical probability distribution. The resulting distributionally…
Distributionally robust chance constrained programs minimize a deterministic cost function subject to the satisfaction of one or more safety conditions with high probability, given that the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters affecting the safety condition(s) is only known to belong to some ambiguity set. We study three popular approximation schemes for distributionally robust chance constrained programs over Wasserstein balls, where the ambiguity set contains all probability distributions within a certain Wasserstein distance to a reference distribution. The first app…
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, CentraleSupélec, Laboratoire des signaux et systèmes（巴黎萨克雷大学，法国国家科学研究中心，中央圣艾尔布费尔学院，信号与系统实验室）；ENAC, OPTIM（法国国家航空与航天研究中心，优化部门）；Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, CentraleSupélec, Fédération de Mathématiques de CentraleSupélec（巴黎萨克雷大学，法国国家科学研究中心，中央圣艾尔布费尔学院，中央圣艾尔布费尔学院数学联合会）
The concepts of risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and robust optimization have developed significantly over the last decade. Statistical learning community has also witnessed a rapid theoretical and applied growth by relying on these concepts. A modeling framework, called distributionally robust optimization (DRO), has recently received significant attention in both the operations research and statistical learning communities. This paper surveys main concepts and contributions to DRO, and its relationships with robust optimization, risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, …
We present a novel data-driven distributionally robust Model Predictive Control formulation for unknown discrete-time linear time-invariant systems affected by unknown and possibly unbounded additive uncertainties. We use off-line collected data and an approximate model of the dynamics to formulate a finite-horizon optimization problem. To account for both the uncertainty related to the dynamics and the disturbance acting on the system, we resort to a distributionally robust formulation that optimizes the cost expectation while satisfying Conditional Value-at-Risk constraints with respect to t…
A high number of electric vehicles (EVs) in the transportation sector necessitates an advanced scheduling framework for e-mobility ecosystem operation as a whole in order to overcome range anxiety and create a viable business model for charging stations (CSs). The framework must account for the stochastic nature of all stakeholders' operations, including EV drivers, CSs, and retailers and their mutual interactions. In this paper, a three-layer joint distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) model is proposed to plan grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) operation in day-ahead…
We present a learning model predictive control (MPC) scheme for chance-constrained Markov jump systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are estimated which include the true conditional probability distributions with high probability. These sets are updated online and used to formulate a time-varying, risk-averse optimal control problem. We prove recursive feasibility of the resulting MPC scheme and show that the original chance constraints remain satisfied at every time step. Furthermore, we show that…
Healthcare systems are facing serious challenges in balancing their human resources to cope with volatile service demand, while at the same time providing necessary job satisfaction to the healthcare workers. We propose in this paper a distributionally robust optimization formulation to generate a task assignment plan that promotes the fairness in allocation, attained by reducing the difference in the total working time among workers, under uncertain service time. The proposed joint chance constraint model is conservatively approximated by a worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk, and we devise …
Contextual Robotics Institute（情境机器人研究所）；University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）
This paper considers enforcing safety and stability of dynamical systems in the presence of model uncertainty. Safety and stability constraints may be specified using a control barrier function (CBF) and a control Lyapunov function (CLF), respectively. To take model uncertainty into account, robust and chance formulations of the constraints are commonly considered. However, this requires known error bounds or a known distribution for the model uncertainty, and the resulting formulations may suffer from over-conservatism or over-confidence. In this paper, we assume that only a finite set of mod…
In this paper, we develop a distributionally robust chance-constrained formulation of the Optimal Power Flow problem (OPF) whereby the system operator can leverage contextual information. For this purpose, we exploit an ambiguity set based on probability trimmings and optimal transport through which the dispatch solution is protected against the incomplete knowledge of the relationship between the OPF uncertainties and the context that is conveyed by a sample of their joint probability distribution. We provide a tractable reformulation of the proposed distributionally robust chance-constrained…
In this paper, we present a novel stochastic output-feedback MPC scheme for distributed systems with additive process and measurement noise. The chance constraints are treated with the concept of probabilistic reachable sets, which, under an unimodality assumption on the disturbance distributions are guaranteed to be satisfied in closed-loop. By conditioning the initial state of the optimization problem on feasibility, the fundamental property of recursive feasibility is ensured. Closed-loop chance constraint satisfaction, recursive feasibility and convergence to an asymptotic average cost bou…
We study a tight Bennett-type concentration inequality for sums of heterogeneous and independent variables, defined as a one-dimensional minimization. We show that this refinement, which outperforms the standard known bounds, remains computationally tractable: we develop a polynomial-time algorithm to compute confidence bounds, proved to terminate with an epsilon-solution. From the proposed inequality, we deduce tight distributionally robust bounds to Chance-Constrained Programming problems. To illustrate the efficiency of our approach, we consider two use cases. First, we study the chance-con…
We present a data-driven model predictive control scheme for chance-constrained Markovian switching systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are estimated which include the true conditional probability distributions with high probability. These sets are updated online and used to formulate a time-varying, risk-averse optimal control problem. We prove recursive feasibility of the resulting MPC scheme and show that the original chance constraints remain satisfied at every time step. Furthermore, we show…
This paper presents a Distributed Stochastic Model Predictive Control algorithm for networks of linear systems with multiplicative uncertainties and local chance constraints on the states and control inputs. The chance constraints are approximated via Cantelli's inequality by means of expected value and covariance. The cooperative control algorithm is based on the distributed Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers, which renders the controller fully distributedly implementable, recursively feasible and ensures point-wise convergence of the states. The aforementioned properties are guarant…
To address the challenge of the renewable energy uncertainty, the ISO New England (ISO-NE) has proposed to apply do-not-exceed (DNE) limits, which represent the maximum nodal injection of renewable energy the grid can accommodate. Unfortunately, it appears challenging to compute DNE limits that simultaneously maintain the system flexibility and incorporate a large portion of the available renewable energy at the minimum cost. In addition, it is often challenging to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of the renewable energy. In this paper, we propose a two-stage distribution…
Power systems are shifted from conventional bulk generation toward renewable generation. This trend leads to the frequency security problem due to the decline of system inertia. On the other hand, natural gas-fired units are frequently scheduled to provide operational flexibility due to their fast adjustment ability. The interdependence between power and natural gas systems is thus intensified. In this paper, we study the frequency constrained scheduling problem from the perspective of an integrated electricity-gas system under variable wind power. We propose a distributionally robust (DR) cha…
Chance-constrained programming (CCP) is one of the most difficult classes of optimization problems that has attracted the attention of researchers since the 1950s. In this survey, we focus on cases when only a limited information on the distribution is available, such as a sample from the distribution, or the moments of the distribution. We first review recent developments in mixed-integer linear formulations of chance-constrained programs that arise from finite discrete distributions (or sample average approximation). We highlight successful reformulations and decomposition techniques that en…
In this paper, we formulate a novel trajectory optimization scheme that takes into consideration the state uncertainty of the robot and obstacle into its collision avoidance routine. The collision avoidance under uncertainty is modeled here as an overlap between two distributions that represent the state of the robot and obstacle respectively. We adopt the minmax procedure to characterize the area of overlap between two Gaussian distributions, and compare it with the method of Bhattacharyya distance. We provide closed form expressions that can characterize the overlap as a function of control.…
