In this paper, we present a sequential sampling-based algorithm for the two-stage distributionally robust linear programming (2-DRLP) models. The 2-DRLP models are defined over a general class of ambiguity sets with discrete or continuous probability distributions. The algorithm is a distributionally robust version of the well-known stochastic decomposition algorithm of Higle and Sen (Math. of OR 16(3), 650-669, 1991) for a two-stage stochastic linear program. We refer to the algorithm as the distributionally robust stochastic decomposition (DRSD) method. The key features of the algorithm include (1) it works with data-driven approximations of ambiguity sets that are constructed using samples of increasing size and (2) efficient construction of approximations of the worst-case expectation function that solves only two second-stage subproblems in every iteration. We identify conditions under which the ambiguity set approximations converge to the true ambiguity sets and show that the DRSD method asymptotically identifies an optimal solution, with probability one. We also computationally evaluate the performance of the DRSD method for solving distributionally robust versions of instances considered in stochastic programming literature. The numerical results corroborate the analytical behavior of the DRSD method and illustrate the computational advantage over an external sampling-based decomposition approach (distributionally robust L-shaped method).
We study distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems where the ambiguity set is defined using the Wasserstein metric. We show that this class of DRO problems can be reformulated as semi-infinite programs. We give an exchange method to solve the reformulated problem for the general nonlinear model, and a central cutting-surface method for the convex case, assuming that we have a separation oracle. We used a distributionally robust generalization of the logistic regression model to test our algorithm. Numerical experiments on the distributionally robust logistic regression models show th…
We develop a decomposition algorithm for distributionally-robust two-stage stochastic mixed-integer convex cone programs, and its important special case of distributionally-robust two-stage stochastic mixed-integer second order cone programs. This generalizes the algorithm proposed by Sen and Sherali~[Mathematical Programming 106(2): 203-223, 2006]. We show that the proposed algorithm is finitely convergent if the second-stage problems are solved to optimality at incumbent first stage solutions, and solution to an optimization problem to identify worst-case probability distribution is availabl…
Adaptive robust optimization problems are usually solved approximately by restricting the adaptive decisions to simple parametric decision rules. However, the corresponding approximation error can be substantial. In this paper we show that two-stage robust and distributionally robust linear programs can often be reformulated exactly as conic programs that scale polynomially with the problem dimensions. Specifically, when the ambiguity set constitutes a 2-Wasserstein ball centered at a discrete distribution, then the distributionally robust linear program is equivalent to a copositive program (…
In this paper, we propose a discretization scheme for the two-stage stochastic linear complementarity problem (LCP) where the underlying random data are continuously distributed. Under some moderate conditions, we derive qualitative and quantitative convergence for the solutions obtained from solving the discretized two-stage stochastic LCP (SLCP). We explain how the discretized two-stage SLCP may be solved by the well-known progressive hedging method (PHM). Moreover, we extend the discussion by considering a two-stage distributionally robust LCP (DRLCP) with moment constraints and proposing a…
We study two-stage stochastic optimization problems with random recourse, where the adaptive decisions are multiplied with the uncertain parameters in both the objective function and the constraints. To mitigate the computational intractability of infinite-dimensional optimization, we propose a scalable approximation scheme via piecewise linear and piecewise quadratic decision rules. We then develop a data-driven distributionally robust framework with two layers of robustness to address distributionally uncertainty. The emerging optimization problem can be reformulated as an exact copositive p…
We formulate pure characteristics demand models under uncertainties of probability distributions as distributionally robust mathematical programs with stochastic complementarity constraints (DRMP-SCC). For any fixed first-stage variable and a random realization, the second-stage problem of DRMP-SCC is a monotone linear complementarity problem (LCP). To deal with uncertainties of probability distributions of the involved random variables in the stochastic LCP, we use the distributionally robust approach. Moreover, we propose an approximation problem with regularization and discretization to sol…
Distributionally robust optimization involves various probability measures in its problem formulation. They can be bundled to constitute a risk functional. For this equivalence, risk functionals constitute a fundamental building block in distributionally robust stochastic programming. Multistage programming requires conditional versions of risk functionals to re-assess future risk after partial realizations and after preceding decisions. This paper discusses a construction of the conditional counterpart of a risk functional by passing its genuine characteristics to its conditional counterparts…
In the optimization under uncertainty, decision-makers first select a wait-and-see policy before any realization of uncertainty and then place a here-and-now decision after the uncertainty has been observed. Two-stage stochastic programming is a popular modeling paradigm for the optimization under uncertainty that the decision-makers first specifies a probability distribution, and then seek the best decisions to jointly optimize the deterministic wait-and-see and expected here-and-now costs. In practice, such a probability distribution may not be fully available but is probably observable thro…
We study multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programs under endogenous uncertainty, where the probability distribution of stage-wise uncertainty depends on the decisions made in previous stages. We first consider two ambiguity sets defined by decision-dependent bounds on the first and second moments of uncertain parameters and by mean and covariance matrix that exactly match decision-dependent empirical ones, respectively. For both sets, we show that the subproblem in each stage can be recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Moreover, we extend the general moment-based am…
We consider a distributionally robust second-order stochastic dominance constrained optimization problem. We require the dominance constraints hold with respect to all probability distributions in a Wasserstein ball centered at the empirical distribution. We adopt the sample approximation approach to develop a linear programming formulation that provides a lower bound. We propose a novel split-and-dual decomposition framework which provides an upper bound. We establish quantitative convergency for both lower and upper approximations given some constraint qualification conditions. To efficientl…
Recently, there has been a growing interest in distributionally robust optimization (DRO) as a principled approach to data-driven decision making. In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust two-stage stochastic optimization problem with discrete scenario support. While much research effort has been devoted to tractable reformulations for DRO problems, especially those with continuous scenario support, few efficient numerical algorithms were developed, and most of them can neither handle the non-smooth second-stage cost function nor the large number of scenarios $K$ effectively. We fi…
Increasing integration of renewable generation poses significant challenges to ensure robustness guarantees in real-time energy system decision-making. This work aims to develop a robust optimal transmission switching (OTS) framework that can effectively relieve grid congestion and mitigate renewable curtailment. We formulate a two-stage distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) problem that assures limited constraint violations for any uncertainty distribution within an ambiguity set. Here, the second-stage recourse variables are represented as linear functions of uncertainty, yieldin…
We study decision dependent distributionally robust optimization models, where the ambiguity sets of probability distributions can depend on the decision variables. These models arise in situations with endogenous uncertainty. The developed framework includes two-stage decision dependent distributionally robust stochastic programming as a special case. Decision dependent generalizations of five types of ambiguity sets are considered. These sets are based on bounds on moments, Wasserstein metric, $ϕ$-divergence and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. For the finite support case, we use linear, conic or La…
Intensively studied in theory as a promising data-driven tool for decision-making under ambiguity, two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems over Wasserstein balls are not necessarily easy to solve in practice. This is partly due to large sample size. In this article, we study a generic two-stage distributionally robust linear program (2-DRLP) over a 1-Wasserstein ball using an affine policy. The 2-DRLP has right-hand-side uncertainty with a rectangular support. Our main contribution is to show that the 2-DRLP problem has a tractable reformulation with a scale independent o…
This article extends the optimal covariance steering (CS) problem for discrete time linear stochastic systems modeled using moment-based ambiguity sets. To hedge against the uncertainty in the state distributions while performing covariance steering, distributionally robust risk constraints are employed during the optimal allocation of the risk. Specifically, a distributionally robust iterative risk allocation (DR-IRA) formalism is used to solve the optimal risk allocation problem for the CS problem using a two-stage approach. The upper-stage of DR-IRA is a convex problem that optimizes the ri…
This paper proposes a second-order conic programming (SOCP) approach to solve distributionally robust two-stage stochastic linear programs over 1-Wasserstein balls. We start from the case with distribution uncertainty only in the objective function and exactly reformulate it as an SOCP problem. Then, we study the case with distribution uncertainty only in constraints, and show that such a robust program is generally NP-hard as it involves a norm maximization problem over a polyhedron. However, it is reduced to an SOCP problem if the extreme points of the polyhedron are given as a prior. This m…
We propose two distributionally robust optimization (DRO) models for a mobile facility (MF) fleet sizing, routing, and scheduling problem (MFRSP) with time-dependent and random demand, as well as methodologies for solving these models. Specifically, given a set of MFs, a planning horizon, and a service region, our models aim to find the number of MFs to use (i.e., fleet size) within the planning horizon and a route and schedule for each MF in the fleet. The objective is to minimize the fixed cost of establishing the MF fleet plus a risk measure (expectation or mean conditional value-at-risk) o…
We study multistage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) to hedge against ambiguity in quantifying the underlying uncertainty of a problem. Recognizing that not all the realizations and scenario paths might have an "effect" on the optimal value, we investigate the question of how to define and identify critical scenarios for nested multistage DRO problems. Our analysis extends the work of Rahimian, Bayraksan, and Homem-de-Mello [Math. Program. 173(1--2): 393--430, 2019], which was in the context of a static/two-stage setting, to the multistage setting. To this end, we define the notions …
To address the challenge of the renewable energy uncertainty, the ISO New England (ISO-NE) has proposed to apply do-not-exceed (DNE) limits, which represent the maximum nodal injection of renewable energy the grid can accommodate. Unfortunately, it appears challenging to compute DNE limits that simultaneously maintain the system flexibility and incorporate a large portion of the available renewable energy at the minimum cost. In addition, it is often challenging to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of the renewable energy. In this paper, we propose a two-stage distribution…
We present a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach for the transmission expansion planning problem, considering both long- and short-term uncertainties on the system demand and non-dispatchable renewable generation. On the long-term level, as is customary in industry applications, we address the deep uncertainties arising from social and economic transformations, political and environmental issues, and technology disruptions by using long-term scenarios devised by experts. In this setting, many exogenous long-term scenarios containing partial information about the random paramete…
This paper investigates a Multistage Distributionally Robust Optimization (MDRO) approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty. The MDRO is formed by creating sets of conditional distributions (called conditional ambiguity sets) on a finite scenario tree. The distributions in the conditional ambiguity sets remain close to a nominal conditional distribution according a $ϕ$-divergence (e.g., Kullback-Liebler divergence, Hellinger distance, Burg entropy, etc.). The paper discusses a decomposition algorithm to solve the resulting MDRO and applies the modeling and solution techniques to al…
A power system unit commitment (UC) problem considering uncertainties of renewable energy sources is investigated in this paper, through a distributionally robust optimization approach. We assume that the first and second order moments of stochastic parameters can be inferred from historical data, and then employed to model the set of probability distributions. The resulting problem is a two-stage distributionally robust unit commitment with second order moment constraints, and we show that it can be recast as a mixed-integer semidefinite programming (MI-SDP) with finite constraints. The solut…
Markov decision process (MDP) is a decision making framework where a decision maker is interested in maximizing the expected discounted value of a stream of rewards received at future stages at various states which are visited according to a controlled Markov chain. Many algorithms including linear programming methods are available in the literature to compute an optimal policy when the rewards and transition probabilities are deterministic. In this paper, we consider an MDP problem where the transition probabilities are known and the reward vector is a random vector whose distribution is part…
Distributionally Robust Optimization for Sequential Decision Making
Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London（帝国理工学院商学院）；Neuri Pte Ltd（Neuri私人有限公司）；Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学工业系统工程与管理系）
Green Manufacturing Capacity Planning by Integrating Distributionally Robust Optimization and Generative AI
Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学工业工程系）；Sino-US Global Logistics Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学中美物流研究院）
This paper proposes a distributionally robust unit commitment approach for microgrids under net load and electricity market price uncertainty. The key thrust of the proposed approach is to leverage the Kullback-Leibler divergence to construct an ambiguity set of probability distributions and formulate an optimization problem that minimizes the expected costs brought about by the worst-case distribution in the ambiguity set. The proposed approach effectively exploits historical data and capitalizes on the k-means clustering algorithm, in conjunction with the soft dynamic time warping score, to …
We investigate a simple approximation scheme, based on overlapping linear decision rules, for solving data-driven two-stage distributionally robust optimization problems with the type-$\infty$ Wasserstein ambiguity set. Our main result establishes that this approximation scheme is asymptotically optimal for two-stage stochastic linear optimization problems; that is, under mild assumptions, the optimal cost and optimal first-stage decisions obtained by approximating the robust optimization problem converge to those of the underlying stochastic problem as the number of data points grows to infin…
