Let $(X_k,ξ_k)_{k\in \mathbb {N}}$ be a sequence of independent copies of a pair $(X,ξ)$ where $X$ is a random process with paths in the Skorokhod space $D[0,\infty)$ and $ξ$ is a positive random variable. The random process with immigration $(Y(u))_{u\in \mathbb {R}}$ is defined as the a.s. finite sum $Y(u)=\sum_{k\geq0}X_{k+1}(u- ξ_1-\cdots-ξ_k)1\mkern-4.5mu\mathrm{l}_{\{ξ_1+\cdots+ξ_k\leq u\}}$. We obtain a functional limit theorem for the process $(Y(ut))_{u\geq 0}$, as $t\to\infty$, when the law of $ξ$ belongs to the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable law with $α\in(0,1)$, and the process $X$ oscillates moderately around its mean $\mathbb{E}[X(t)]$. In this situation the process $(Y(ut))_{u\geq0}$, when scaled appropriately, converges weakly in the Skorokhod space $D(0,\infty)$ to a fractionally integrated inverse stable subordinator.
A second-order Galton-Watson process with immigration can be represented as a coordinate process of a 2-type Galton-Watson process with immigration. Sufficient conditions are derived on the offspring and immigration distributions of a second-order Galton-Watson process with immigration under which the corresponding 2-type Galton-Watson process with immigration has a unique stationary distribution such that its common marginals are regularly varying. In the course of the proof sufficient conditions are given under which the distribution of a second-order Galton-Watson process (without immigrati…
We consider a fixed-point equation for a non-negative integer-valued random variable, that appears in branching processes with state-independent immigration. A similar equation appears in the analysis of a single-server queue with a homogeneous Poisson input, feedback and permanent customer(s). It is known that the solution to this equation uniquely exists under mild first and logarithmic moments conditions. We find further the tail asymptotics of the distribution of the solution when the immigration size and branch size distributions are heavy-tailed. We assume that the distributions of inter…
In this paper, a critical Galton-Watson branching process with immigration $Z_{n}$ is studied. We first obtain the convergence rate of the harmonic moment of $Z_{n}$. Then the large deviation of $S_{Z_n}:=\sum_{i=1}^{Z_n} X_i$ is obtained, where $\{X_i\}$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed zero-mean random variables with tail index $α>2$. We shall see that the converging rate is determined by the immigration mean, the variance of reproducing and the tail index of $X_1^+$, comparing to previous result for supercritical case, where the rate depends on the Schröder constant …
We investigate subcritical Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration in a random environment. Using Goldie's implicit renewal theory we show that under general Cramér condition the stationary distribution has a power law tail. We determine the tail process of the stationary Markov chain, prove point process convergence, and convergence of the partial sums. The original motivation comes from Kesten, Kozlov and Spitzer seminal 1975 paper, which connects a random walk in a random environment model to a special Galton-Watson process with immigration in a random environment. We obtain new …
We consider subcritical branching processes with immigration which evolve under the influence of a random environment and study the tail distribution of life periods of such processes defined as the length of the time interval between the moment when first invader (or invaders) came to an empty site until the moment when the site becomes empty again. We prove that the tail distribution decays with exponential rate. The main tools are the change of measure and some conditional limit theorems for random walks.
In this paper, we consider a critical Galton-Watson branching process with immigration stopped at zero $\mathbf{W}$. Some precise estimation on the generation function of the $n$-th population are obtained, and the tail probability of the life period of $\mathbf{W}$ is studied. Based on above results, two conditional limit theorems for $\mathbf{W}$ are established.
Motivated by a seminal paper of Kesten et al. (1975) we consider a branching process with a geometric offspring distribution with i.i.d. random environmental parameters $A_n$, $n\ge 1$ and size -1 immigration in each generation. In contrast to above mentioned paper we assume that the environment is long-tailed, that is that the distribution $F$ of $ξ_n := \log ((1-A_n)/A_n)$ is long-tailed. We prove that although the offspring distribution is light-tailed, the environment itself can produce extremely heavy tails of the distribution of the population size in the n-th generation which becomes ev…
A critical branching process with immigration which evolve in a random environment is considered. Assuming that immigration is not allowed when there are no individuals in the aboriginal population we investigate the tail distribution of the so-called life period of the process, i.e., the length of the time interval between the moment when the process is initiated by a positive number of particles and the moment when there are no individuals in the population for the first time.
Occupation-Time Fluctuations of an Age-Dependent Branching System Driven by Poisson Immigration
Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas（数学研究中心）；Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”（索非亚“圣克利门特·奥赫里德斯基”大学数学与信息学院）；Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences（保加利亚科学院数学与情报研究所）
We describe the asymptotic behavior of the conditional least squares estimator of the offspring mean for subcritical strongly stationary Galton--Watson processes with regularly varying immigration with tail index $α\in (1,2)$. The limit law is the ratio of two dependent stable random variables with indices $α/2$ and $2α/3$, respectively, and it has a continuously differentiable density function. We use point process technique in the proofs.
We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for tail probabilities for the area.
We extend the construction principle of phase-type (PH) distributions to allow for inhomogeneous transition rates and show that this naturally leads to direct probabilistic descriptions of certain transformations of PH distributions. In particular, the resulting matrix distributions enable to carry over fitting properties of PH distributions to distributions with heavy tails, providing a general modelling framework for heavy-tail phenomena. We also illustrate the versatility and parsimony of the proposed approach for the modelling of a real-world heavy-tailed fire insurance dataset.
We consider a Wigner matrix $A$ with entries tail decaying as $x^{-α}$ with $2<α<4$ for large $x$ and study fluctuations of linear statistics $N^{-1}\operatorname{Tr}φ(A)$. The behavior of such fluctuations has been understood for both heavy-tailed matrices (i.e. $α< 2$) and light-tailed matrices (i.e. $α> 4$). This paper fills in the gap of understanding for $2<α<4$. We find that while linear spectral statistics for heavy-tailed matrices have fluctuations of order $N^{-1/2}$ and those for light-tailed matrices have fluctuations of order $N^{-1}$, the linear spectral statistics for half-heavy-…
Recently, Kigami's resistance form framework has been applied to provide a general approach for deriving the scaling limits of random walks on graphs with a fractal scaling limit. As an illustrative example, this article describes an application to the random conductance model with heavy tails on nested fractal graphs.
This article studies asymptotic approximations of ruin probabilities of multivariate random walks with heavy-tailed increments. Under our assumptions, the distributions of the increments are closely connected to multivariate subexponentiality and admit dependence between components. Keywords: subexponential distribution, ruin probability, multivariate random walk
We investigate maxima of linear processes with i.i.d. heavy-tailed innovations and random coefficients. Using the point process approach we derive functional convergence of the partial maxima stochastic process in the space of non-decreasing càdlàg functions on $[0,1]$ with the Skorohod $M_{1}$ topology.
We study functional convergence of sums of moving averages with random coefficients and heavy-tailed innovations. Under some standard moment conditions and the assumption that all partial sums of the series of coefficients are a.s. bounded between zero and the sum of the series we obtain functional convergence of the corresponding partial sum stochastic process in the space $D[0,1]$ of càdlàg functions with the Skorohod $M_{2}$ topology.
Sub-Gaussian estimates for the natural random walk is typical of many regular fractal graphs. Subordination shows that there exist heavy tailed jump processes whose jump indices are greater than or equal to two. However, the existing machinery used to prove heat kernel bounds for such heavy tailed random walks fail in this case. In this work we extend Davies' perturbation method to obtain transition probability bounds for these anomalous heavy tailed random walks. We prove global upper and lower bounds on the transition probability density that are sharp up to constants. An important feature o…
We analyze the largest eigenvalue statistics of m-dependent heavy-tailed Wigner matrices as well as the associated sample covariance matrices having entry-wise regularly varying tail distributions with parameter $0<α<4$. Our analysis extends results in the previous literature for the corresponding random matrices with independent entries above the diagonal, by allowing for m-dependence between the entries of a given matrix. We prove that the limiting point process of extreme eigenvalues is a Poisson cluster process.
In this paper we first provide several conditional limit theorems for Lévy processes with negative drift and regularly varying tail. Then we apply them to study the asymptotic behavior of expectations of some exponential functionals of heavy-tailed Lévy processes. As the key point, we observe that the asymptotics mainly depends on the sample paths with early arrival large jump. Both the polynomial decay rate and the exact expression of the limit coefficients are given. As an application, we give an exact description for the extinction speed of continuous-state branching processes in heavy-tail…
