The first aim is to construct generalizations of Polya type point process by applying a branching mechanism to these point processes. Conditions are given under which these point processes satisfy an integration by parts formula. Furthermore we compute their Palm kernels, which turn out to be superpositions of different point processes. Secondly we identify all point processes whose local characteristics agree with these of a fixed branching of a Polya type point process as mixtures of branchings of Polya type point process and show that in this case also they are characterized by an integration by parts formula.
In \cite{hZ09}, Zessin constructed the so-called Pólya sum process via partial integration technique. This process shares some important properties with the Poisson process such as complete randomness and infinite divisibility. This work discusses H-sufficient statistics for the Pólya sum process as it was done for the Poisson process in \cite{hZ76}.
In a multitype branching process, it is assumed that immigrants arrive according to a nonhomogeneous Poisson or a generalized Polya process (both processes are formulated as a nonhomogeneous birth process with an appropriate choice of transition intensities). We show that the renormalized numbers of objects of the various types alive at time $t$ for supercritical, critical, and subcritical cases jointly converge in distribution under those two different arrival processes. Furthermore, some transient moment analysis when there are only two types of particles is provided. AMS 2000 subject classi…
Conditioning a branching Brownian motion to have an atypically low maximum leads to a suppression of the branching mechanism. In this note, we consider a branching Brownian motion conditioned to have a maximum below $\sqrt{2}αt$ ($α<1$). We study the precise effects of an early/late first branching time and a low/high first branching location under this condition. We do so by imposing additional constraints on the first branching time and location. We obtain large deviation estimates, as well as the optimal first branching time and location given the additional constraints.
It is well known that a simple, supercritical Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process turns into a subcritical such process, if conditioned to die out. We prove that the corresponding holds true for general, multi-type branching, where child-bearing may occur at different ages, life span may depend upon reproduction, and the whole course of events is thus affected by conditioning upon extinction.
In this paper, we show that a Galton-Watson tree conditioned to have a fixed number of particles in generation $n$ converges in distribution as $n\rightarrow\infty$, and with this tool we study the span and gap statistics of a branching random walk on such trees, which is the discrete version of Ramola, Majumdar and Schehr 2015, generalized to arbitrary offspring and displacement distributions with moment constraints.
We consider a standard binary branching Brownian motion on the real line. It is known that the maximal position $M_t$ among all particles alive at time $t$, shifted by $m_t = \sqrt{2} t - \frac{3}{2\sqrt{2}} \log t$ converges in law to a randomly shifted Gumbel variable. Derrida and Shi (2017) conjectured the precise asymptotic behaviour of the corresponding lower deviation probability $\mathbb{P}(M_t \leq \sqrt{2}αt)$ for $α< 1$. We verify their conjecture, and describe the law of the branching Brownian motion conditioned on having a small maximum.
We study the pathwise description of a (sub-)critical continuous-state branching process (CSBP) conditioned to be never extinct, as the solution to a stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion and Poisson point measures. The interest of our approach, which relies on applying Girsanov theorem on the SDE that describes the unconditioned CSBP, is that it points out an explicit mechanism to build the immigration term appearing in the conditioned process, by randomly selecting jumps of the original one. These techniques should also be useful to represent more general h-transforms of…
In this paper, we consider time-inhomogeneous branching processes and time-inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes, in which the offspring distribution and birth and death rates (respectively) vary in time. A classical result of branching processes states that in the critical regime, a process conditioned on non-extinction and normalized will converge in distribution to a standard exponential. In a paper of Jagers, time-inhomogeneous branching processes are shown to exhibit this convergence as well. In this paper, the hypotheses of Jagers' result are relaxed, further hypotheses are presented f…
Consider the continuous-time Markov Branching Process. In critical case we consider a situation when the generating function of intensity of transformation of particles has the infinite second moment, but its tail regularly varies in sense of Karamata. First we discuss limit properties of transition functions of the process. We prove local limit theorems and investigate ergodic properties of the process. Further we investigate limiting probability function conditioned to be never extinct. Hereupon we obtain a new stochastic population process as a continuous-time Markov chain called the Markov…
Supercritical branching processes in constant environment conditioned on eventual extinction are known to be subcritical branching processes. The case of random environment is more subtle. A supercritical branching diffusion in random environment (BDRE) conditioned on eventual extinction of the population is not a BDRE. However the quenched law of the population size of a supercritical BDRE conditioned on eventual extinction is equal to the quenched law of the population size of a subcritical BDRE. As a consequence, supercritical BDREs have a phase transition which is similar to a well-known p…
We generalize recent results of Haas and Miermont to obtain scaling limits of Markov branching trees whose size is specified by the number of nodes whose out-degree lies in a given set. We then show that this implies that the scaling limit of finite variance Galton-Watson trees condition on the number of nodes whose out-degree lies in a given set is the Brownian continuum random tree. The key to this is a generalization of the classical Otter-Dwass formula.
In this paper, we study the critical branching random walk in the critical dimension, $Z^4$. We provide the asymptotics of the probability of visiting a fixed finite subset and the range of the critical branching random walk conditioned on the total number of offsprings. We also prove that conditioned on visiting, the first visiting point converges in distribution.
In this paper, for $α\in (1, 2}$ we show that the $α$-stable continuous-state branching process and the associated process conditioned never to become extinct are positive self-similar Markov processes. Understanding the interaction of the Lamperti transformation for continuous-state branching processes and the Lamperti transformation for positive self-similar Markov processes permits accessto a number of explicit results concerning the paths of stable-continuous branching processes and its conditioned version.
Let $\{S_n,n\geq 0\} $ be a random walk whose increments belong without centering to the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable law $\{Y_t,t\geq 0\}$, i.e. $S_{nt}/a_n\Rightarrow Y_t,t\geq 0,$ for some scaling constants $a_n$. Assuming that $S_0=o(a_{n})$ and $S_n\leq φ(n)=o(a_n),$ we prove several conditional limit theorems for the distribution of $S_{n-m}$ given $m=o(n)$ and $\min_{0\leq k\leq n}S_k\geq 0$. These theorems complement the statements established by F. Caravenna and L. Chaumont in 2013. The obtained results are applied for studying the population size of a critical branching proc…
Our principal aim is to observe the Markov discrete-time process of population growth with long-living trajectory. First we study asymptotical decay of generating function of Galton-Watson process for all cases as the Basic Lemma. Afterwards we get a Differential analogue of the Basic Lemma. This Lemma plays main role in our discussions throughout the paper. Hereupon we improve and supplement classical results concerning Galton-Watson process. Further we investigate properties of the population process so called Q-process. In particular we obtain a joint limit law of Q-process and its total st…
We consider connectivity properties of the Branching Interlacements model in $\mathbb{Z}^d,~d\ge5$, recently introduced by Angel, Ráth and Zhu in 2016. Using stochastic dimension techniques we show that every two vertices visited by the branching interlacements are connected via at most $\lceil d/4\rceil$ conditioned critical branching random walks from the underlying Poisson process, and that this upper bound is sharp. In particular every such two branching random walks intersect if and only if $5\le d\le 8$. The stochastic dimension of branching random walk result is of independent interest.…
We consider the diffusion approximation of branching processes in random environment (BPREs). This diffusion approximation is similar to and mathematically more tractable than BPREs. We obtain the exact asymptotic behavior of the survival probability. As in the case of BPREs, there is a phase transition in the subcritical regime due to different survival opportunities. In addition, we characterize the process conditioned to never go extinct and establish a backbone construction. In the strongly subcritical regime, mean offspring numbers are increased but still subcritical in the process condit…
A critical branching process $\left\{ Z_{k},k=0,1,2,...\right\} $ in a random environment is considered. A conditional functional limit theorem for the properly scaled process $\left\{ \log Z_{pu},0\leq u<\infty \right\} $ is established under the assumptions $Z_{n}>0$ and $p\ll n$. It is shown that the limiting process is a Levy process conditioned to stay nonnegative. The proof of this result is based on a limit theorem describing the distribution of the initial part of the trajectories of a driftless random walk conditioned to stay nonnegative.
This paper studies: (i) the long time behaviour of the empirical distribution of age and normalised position of an age dependent critical branching Markov process conditioned on non-extinction; and (ii) the super-process limit of a sequence of age dependent critical branching Brownian motions.
We consider a subcritical Galton--Watson tree conditioned on having $n$ vertices with outdegree in a fixed set $Ω$. Under mild regularity assumptions we prove various limits related to the maximal offspring of a vertex as $n$ tends to infinity.
For a branching process in random environment it is assumed that the offspring distribution of the individuals varies in a random fashion, independently from one generation to the other. Interestingly there is the possibility that the process may at the same time be subcritical and, conditioned on nonextinction, 'supercritical'. This so-called weakly subcritical case is considered in this paper. We study the asymptotic survival probability and the size of the population conditioned on non-extinction. Also a functional limit theorem is proven, which makes the conditional supercriticality manife…
We consider continuous state branching processes that are perturbed by a Brownian motion. These processes are constructed as the unique strong solution of a stochastic differential equation. The long-term extinction and explosion behaviours are studied. In the stable case, the extinction and explosion probabilities are given explicitly. We find three regimes for the asymptotic behaviour of the explosion probability and, as in the case of branching processes in random environment, we find five regimes for the asymptotic behaviour of the extinction probability. In the supercritical regime, we st…
For a branching process in random environment it is assumed that the offspring distribution of the individuals varies in a random fashion, independently from one generation to the other. For the subcritical regime a kind of phase transition appears. In this paper we study the intermediately subcritical case, which constitutes the borderline within this phase transition. We study the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability. Next the size of the population and the shape of the random environment conditioned on non-extinction is examined. Finally we show that conditioned on non-extinction…
Under mild non-degeneracy assumptions on branching rates in each generation, we provide a criterion for almost-sure extinction of a multi-type branching process with time-dependent branching rates. We also provide a criterion for the total number of particles (conditioned on survival and divided by the expectation of the resulting random variable) to approach an exponential random variable as time goes to infinity.
Under natural conditions, we proved the exponential ergodicity in Wasserstein distance of two-type continuous-state branching processes in Lévy random environments with immigration. Furthermore, we expressed accurately the parameters of the exponent. The coupling method and the conditioned branching property play an important role in the approach. Using the tool of superprocesses, the ergodicity in total variance distance is also proved.
In this paper, we prove functional limit theorems for Pólya urn processes whose number of draws and initial number of balls tend to infinity together. This is motivated by recent work of Borovkov [5], where they prove a functional limit theorem for this model when the urn has identity replacement rule. We generalize this result to arbitrary balanced replacement rules (the total number of balls added to the urn is deterministic). Three asymptotic regimes are possible depending on how one lets the number of initial balls scale with the number of draws of the urn. In each regime, we show a first …
We consider a slightly subcritical branching Brownian motion with absorption, where particles move as Brownian motions with drift $-\sqrt{2+2\varepsilon}$, undergo dyadic fission at rate $1$, and are killed when they reach the origin. We obtain a Yaglom type asymptotic result, showing that the long run expected number of particles conditioned on survival grows exponentially as $1/\sqrt{\varepsilon}$ as the process approaches criticality.
In this work, we study asymptotics of the genealogy of Galton--Watson processes conditioned on the total progeny. We consider a fixed, aperiodic and critical offspring distribution such that the rescaled Galton--Watson processes converges to a continuous-state branching process (CSBP) with a stable branching mechanism of index $α\in (1, 2]$. We code the genealogy by two different processes: the contour process and the height process that Le Gall and Le Jan recently introduced \cite{LGLJ1, LGLJ1}. We show that the rescaled height process of the corresponding Galton--Watson family tree, with one…
In this paper we study the genealogical structure of a Galton-Watson process with neutral mutations, where the initial population is large and mutation rate is small \cite{B2}. Namely, we extend in two directions the results obtained in Bertoin's work. In the critical case, we construct the version of Bertoin's model conditioned not to be extinct, and in the case with finite variance we show convergence after normalization, of allelic sub-populations towards a tree indexed CSBP with immigration. Besides, we establish the version of the limit theorems in \cite{B2}, been for the unconditioned pr…
The reduced Markov branching process is a stochastic model for the genealogy of an unstructured biological population. Its limit behavior in the critical case is well studied for the Zolotarev-Slack regularity parameter $α\in(0,1]$. We turn to the case of very heavy tailed reproduction distribution $α=0$ assuming Zubkov's regularity condition with parameter $β\in(0,\infty)$. Our main result gives a new asymptotic pattern for the reduced branching process conditioned on non-extinction during a long time interval.
We characterise all the quasi-stationary distributions and the Q-process associated with a continuous state branching process that explodes in finite time. We also provide a rescaling for the continuous state branching process conditioned on non-explosion when the branching mechanism is regularly varying at 0.
In the present paper, we characterize the behavior of supercritical branching processes in random environment with linear fractional offspring distributions, conditioned on having small, but positive values at some large generation. As it has been noticed in previous works, there is a phase transition in the behavior of the process. Here, we examine the strongly and intermediately supercritical regimes The main result is a conditional limit theorem for the rescaled associated random walk in the intermediately case.
A multitype Dawson-Watanabe process is conditioned, in subcritical and critical cases, on non-extinction in the remote future. On every finite time interval, its distribution is absolutely continuous with respect to the law of the unconditioned process. A martingale problem characterization is also given. Several results on the long time behavior of the conditioned mass process|the conditioned multitype Feller branching diffusion are then proved. The general case is first considered, where the mutation matrix which models the interaction between the types, is irreducible. Several two-type mode…
We study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in a Lévy environment, where the associated Lévy process oscillates. Assuming that the Lévy process satisfies the Spitzer's condition and the existence of some exponential moments, we extend recent results where the associated branching mechanism was stable. Our study relies on the path analysis of the process together with its environment, when this latter is conditioned to have a non negative running infimum. This approach is inspired from the discrete setting with i.i.d. environment studied in (Afanasyev et al. 2005).
In this article, we study the extremal processes of branching Brownian motions conditioned on having an unusually large maximum. The limiting point measures form a one-parameter family and are the decoration point measures in the extremal processes of several branching processes, including branching Brownian motions with variable speed and multitype branching Brownian motions. We give a new, alternative representation of these point measures and we show that they form a continuous family. This also yields a simple probabilistic expression for the constant that appears in the large deviation pr…
A continuous-time particle system on the real line satisfying the branching property and an exponential integrability condition is called a branching Lévy process, and its law is characterized by a triplet $(σ^2,a,Λ)$. We obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the convergence of the derivative martingale of such a process to a non-trivial limit in terms of $(σ^2,a,Λ)$. This extends previously known results on branching Brownian motions and branching random walks. To obtain this result, we rely on the spinal decomposition and establish a novel zero-one law on the perpetual integrals of…
Yaglom limits of continuous-state branching processes in Brownian random environment
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学数学与统计学院）；School of Mathematics, East China University of Science and Technology（华东理工大学数学学院）；Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Concordia University（康考迪亚大学数学与统计系）
By studying an admissible family of branching mechanisms introduced in Li (2014), we obtain a pruning procedure on Lévy trees. Then we could construct a decreasing Lévy-CRT-valued process $\{{\mathcal T}_t\}$ by pruning Lévy trees and an analogous process $\{{\mathcal T}^*_t\}$ by pruning a critical Lévy tree conditioned to be infinite. Under a regular condition on the admissible family of branching mechanisms, we show that the law of $\{{\mathcal T}_t\}$ at the ascension time can be represented by $\{{\mathcal T}^*_t\}$. The results generalize those studied in Abraham and Delmas (2012).
We study branching diffusions in a bounded domain $D$ of $\mathbb{R}^d$ in which particles are killed upon hitting the boundary $\partial D$. It is known that any such process undergoes a phase transition when the branching rate $β$ exceeds a critical value: a multiple of the first eigenvalue of the generator of the diffusion. We investigate the system at criticality and show that the associated genealogical tree, when the process is conditioned to survive for a long time, converges to Aldous' Continuum Random Tree under appropriate rescaling. The result holds under only a mild assumption on t…
We consider a two-color Pólya urn in the case when a fixed number $S$ of balls is added at each step. Assume it is a large urn that is, the second eigenvalue $m$ of the replacement matrix satisfies $1/2<m/S\leq1$. After $n$ drawings, the composition vector has asymptotically a first deterministic term of order $n$ and a second random term of order $n^{m/S}$. The object of interest is the limit distribution of this random term. The method consists in embedding the discrete-time urn in continuous time, getting a two-type branching process. The dislocation equations associated with this process l…
We study the local convergence of critical Galton-Watson trees and Levy trees under various conditionings. Assuming a very general monotonicity property on the functional of random trees, we show that random trees conditioned to have large functional values always converge locally to immortal trees. We also derive a very general ratio limit property for functionals of random trees satisfying the monotonicity property. Then we move on to study the local convergence of critical continuous-state branching processes, and prove a similar result. Finally we give a definition of continuum condensatio…
Branching processes $(Z_n)_{n \ge 0}$ in a varying environment generalize the Galton-Watson process, in that they allow time-dependence of the offspring distribution. Our main results concern general criteria for a.s. extinction, square-integrability of the martingale $(Z_n/\mathbf E[Z_n])_{n \ge 0}$, properties of the martingale limit $W$ and a Yaglom type result stating convergence to an exponential limit distribution of the suitably normalized population size $Z_n$, conditioned on the event $Z_n >0$. The theorems generalize/unify diverse results from the literature and lead to a classificat…
This review paper presents the known results on the asymptotics of the survival probability and limit theorems conditioned on survival of critical and subcritical branching processes in IID random environments. The key assumptions of the family of population models in question are: non-overlapping generations, independent reproduction of particles within a generation, independent reproduction laws between generations. This is a biologically important generalization of the time inhomogeneous branching processes. The assumption of IID (independent and identically distributed) random environments…
Consider a continuous-time binary branching process conditioned to have population size n at some time t, and with a chance p for recording each extinct individual in the process. Within the family tree of this process, we consider the smallest subtree containing the genealogy of the extant individuals together with the genealogy of the recorded extinct individuals. We introduce a novel representation of such subtrees in terms of a point-process, and provide asymptotic results on the distribution of this point-process as the number of extant individuals increases. We motivate the study within …
In this paper we study several aspects of the growth of a supercritical Galton-Watson process {Z_n:n\ge1}, and bring out some criticality phenomena determined by the Schroder constant. We develop the local limit theory of Z_n, that is, the behavior of P(Z_n=v_n) as v_n\nearrow \infty, and use this to study conditional large deviations of {Y_{Z_n}:n\ge1}, where Y_n satisfies an LDP, particularly of {Z_n^{-1}Z_{n+1}:n\ge1} conditioned on Z_n\ge v_n.
We consider the critical Galton-Watson process with overlapping generations stemming from a single founder. Assuming that both the variance of the offspring number and the average generation length are finite, we establish the convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions, conditioned on non-extinction at a remote time of observation. The limiting process is identified as a pure death process coming down from infinity. This result brings a new perspective on Vatutin's dichotomy claiming that in the critical regime of age-dependent reproduction, an extant population either contains a larg…
We consider a birth and death process in which death is due to both `natural death' and to competition between individuals, modelled as a quadratic function of population size. The resulting `logistic branching process' has been proposed as a model for numbers of individuals in populations competing for some resource, or for numbers of species. However, because of the quadratic death rate, even if the intrinsic growth rate is positive, the population will, with probability one, die out in finite time. There is considerable interest in understanding the process conditioned on non-extinction. In…
