Our principal aim is to observe the Markov discrete-time process of population growth with long-living trajectory. First we study asymptotical decay of generating function of Galton-Watson process for all cases as the Basic Lemma. Afterwards we get a Differential analogue of the Basic Lemma. This Lemma plays main role in our discussions throughout the paper. Hereupon we improve and supplement classical results concerning Galton-Watson process. Further we investigate properties of the population process so called Q-process. In particular we obtain a joint limit law of Q-process and its total state. And also we prove the analogue of Law of large numbers and the Central limit theorem for total state of Q-process.
Keywords: Branching process; transition function; Q-process; invariant measures; ergodic chain; total states; joint distribution; limit theorem.
Conditioning a branching Brownian motion to have an atypically low maximum leads to a suppression of the branching mechanism. In this note, we consider a branching Brownian motion conditioned to have a maximum below $\sqrt{2}αt$ ($α<1$). We study the precise effects of an early/late first branching time and a low/high first branching location under this condition. We do so by imposing additional constraints on the first branching time and location. We obtain large deviation estimates, as well as the optimal first branching time and location given the additional constraints.
It is well known that a simple, supercritical Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process turns into a subcritical such process, if conditioned to die out. We prove that the corresponding holds true for general, multi-type branching, where child-bearing may occur at different ages, life span may depend upon reproduction, and the whole course of events is thus affected by conditioning upon extinction.
In this paper, we show that a Galton-Watson tree conditioned to have a fixed number of particles in generation $n$ converges in distribution as $n\rightarrow\infty$, and with this tool we study the span and gap statistics of a branching random walk on such trees, which is the discrete version of Ramola, Majumdar and Schehr 2015, generalized to arbitrary offspring and displacement distributions with moment constraints.
We consider a standard binary branching Brownian motion on the real line. It is known that the maximal position $M_t$ among all particles alive at time $t$, shifted by $m_t = \sqrt{2} t - \frac{3}{2\sqrt{2}} \log t$ converges in law to a randomly shifted Gumbel variable. Derrida and Shi (2017) conjectured the precise asymptotic behaviour of the corresponding lower deviation probability $\mathbb{P}(M_t \leq \sqrt{2}αt)$ for $α< 1$. We verify their conjecture, and describe the law of the branching Brownian motion conditioned on having a small maximum.
We study the pathwise description of a (sub-)critical continuous-state branching process (CSBP) conditioned to be never extinct, as the solution to a stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion and Poisson point measures. The interest of our approach, which relies on applying Girsanov theorem on the SDE that describes the unconditioned CSBP, is that it points out an explicit mechanism to build the immigration term appearing in the conditioned process, by randomly selecting jumps of the original one. These techniques should also be useful to represent more general h-transforms of…
In this paper, we consider time-inhomogeneous branching processes and time-inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes, in which the offspring distribution and birth and death rates (respectively) vary in time. A classical result of branching processes states that in the critical regime, a process conditioned on non-extinction and normalized will converge in distribution to a standard exponential. In a paper of Jagers, time-inhomogeneous branching processes are shown to exhibit this convergence as well. In this paper, the hypotheses of Jagers' result are relaxed, further hypotheses are presented f…
The first aim is to construct generalizations of Polya type point process by applying a branching mechanism to these point processes. Conditions are given under which these point processes satisfy an integration by parts formula. Furthermore we compute their Palm kernels, which turn out to be superpositions of different point processes. Secondly we identify all point processes whose local characteristics agree with these of a fixed branching of a Polya type point process as mixtures of branchings of Polya type point process and show that in this case also they are characterized by an integrati…
Consider the continuous-time Markov Branching Process. In critical case we consider a situation when the generating function of intensity of transformation of particles has the infinite second moment, but its tail regularly varies in sense of Karamata. First we discuss limit properties of transition functions of the process. We prove local limit theorems and investigate ergodic properties of the process. Further we investigate limiting probability function conditioned to be never extinct. Hereupon we obtain a new stochastic population process as a continuous-time Markov chain called the Markov…
Supercritical branching processes in constant environment conditioned on eventual extinction are known to be subcritical branching processes. The case of random environment is more subtle. A supercritical branching diffusion in random environment (BDRE) conditioned on eventual extinction of the population is not a BDRE. However the quenched law of the population size of a supercritical BDRE conditioned on eventual extinction is equal to the quenched law of the population size of a subcritical BDRE. As a consequence, supercritical BDREs have a phase transition which is similar to a well-known p…
We generalize recent results of Haas and Miermont to obtain scaling limits of Markov branching trees whose size is specified by the number of nodes whose out-degree lies in a given set. We then show that this implies that the scaling limit of finite variance Galton-Watson trees condition on the number of nodes whose out-degree lies in a given set is the Brownian continuum random tree. The key to this is a generalization of the classical Otter-Dwass formula.
In this paper, we study the critical branching random walk in the critical dimension, $Z^4$. We provide the asymptotics of the probability of visiting a fixed finite subset and the range of the critical branching random walk conditioned on the total number of offsprings. We also prove that conditioned on visiting, the first visiting point converges in distribution.
In this paper, for $α\in (1, 2}$ we show that the $α$-stable continuous-state branching process and the associated process conditioned never to become extinct are positive self-similar Markov processes. Understanding the interaction of the Lamperti transformation for continuous-state branching processes and the Lamperti transformation for positive self-similar Markov processes permits accessto a number of explicit results concerning the paths of stable-continuous branching processes and its conditioned version.
Let $\{S_n,n\geq 0\} $ be a random walk whose increments belong without centering to the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable law $\{Y_t,t\geq 0\}$, i.e. $S_{nt}/a_n\Rightarrow Y_t,t\geq 0,$ for some scaling constants $a_n$. Assuming that $S_0=o(a_{n})$ and $S_n\leq φ(n)=o(a_n),$ we prove several conditional limit theorems for the distribution of $S_{n-m}$ given $m=o(n)$ and $\min_{0\leq k\leq n}S_k\geq 0$. These theorems complement the statements established by F. Caravenna and L. Chaumont in 2013. The obtained results are applied for studying the population size of a critical branching proc…
We consider the diffusion approximation of branching processes in random environment (BPREs). This diffusion approximation is similar to and mathematically more tractable than BPREs. We obtain the exact asymptotic behavior of the survival probability. As in the case of BPREs, there is a phase transition in the subcritical regime due to different survival opportunities. In addition, we characterize the process conditioned to never go extinct and establish a backbone construction. In the strongly subcritical regime, mean offspring numbers are increased but still subcritical in the process condit…
A critical branching process $\left\{ Z_{k},k=0,1,2,...\right\} $ in a random environment is considered. A conditional functional limit theorem for the properly scaled process $\left\{ \log Z_{pu},0\leq u<\infty \right\} $ is established under the assumptions $Z_{n}>0$ and $p\ll n$. It is shown that the limiting process is a Levy process conditioned to stay nonnegative. The proof of this result is based on a limit theorem describing the distribution of the initial part of the trajectories of a driftless random walk conditioned to stay nonnegative.
This paper studies: (i) the long time behaviour of the empirical distribution of age and normalised position of an age dependent critical branching Markov process conditioned on non-extinction; and (ii) the super-process limit of a sequence of age dependent critical branching Brownian motions.
We consider a subcritical Galton--Watson tree conditioned on having $n$ vertices with outdegree in a fixed set $Ω$. Under mild regularity assumptions we prove various limits related to the maximal offspring of a vertex as $n$ tends to infinity.
For a branching process in random environment it is assumed that the offspring distribution of the individuals varies in a random fashion, independently from one generation to the other. Interestingly there is the possibility that the process may at the same time be subcritical and, conditioned on nonextinction, 'supercritical'. This so-called weakly subcritical case is considered in this paper. We study the asymptotic survival probability and the size of the population conditioned on non-extinction. Also a functional limit theorem is proven, which makes the conditional supercriticality manife…
We consider continuous state branching processes that are perturbed by a Brownian motion. These processes are constructed as the unique strong solution of a stochastic differential equation. The long-term extinction and explosion behaviours are studied. In the stable case, the extinction and explosion probabilities are given explicitly. We find three regimes for the asymptotic behaviour of the explosion probability and, as in the case of branching processes in random environment, we find five regimes for the asymptotic behaviour of the extinction probability. In the supercritical regime, we st…
For a branching process in random environment it is assumed that the offspring distribution of the individuals varies in a random fashion, independently from one generation to the other. For the subcritical regime a kind of phase transition appears. In this paper we study the intermediately subcritical case, which constitutes the borderline within this phase transition. We study the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability. Next the size of the population and the shape of the random environment conditioned on non-extinction is examined. Finally we show that conditioned on non-extinction…
Under mild non-degeneracy assumptions on branching rates in each generation, we provide a criterion for almost-sure extinction of a multi-type branching process with time-dependent branching rates. We also provide a criterion for the total number of particles (conditioned on survival and divided by the expectation of the resulting random variable) to approach an exponential random variable as time goes to infinity.
In this work, we study asymptotics of the genealogy of Galton--Watson processes conditioned on the total progeny. We consider a fixed, aperiodic and critical offspring distribution such that the rescaled Galton--Watson processes converges to a continuous-state branching process (CSBP) with a stable branching mechanism of index $α\in (1, 2]$. We code the genealogy by two different processes: the contour process and the height process that Le Gall and Le Jan recently introduced \cite{LGLJ1, LGLJ1}. We show that the rescaled height process of the corresponding Galton--Watson family tree, with one…
In this paper we study the genealogical structure of a Galton-Watson process with neutral mutations, where the initial population is large and mutation rate is small \cite{B2}. Namely, we extend in two directions the results obtained in Bertoin's work. In the critical case, we construct the version of Bertoin's model conditioned not to be extinct, and in the case with finite variance we show convergence after normalization, of allelic sub-populations towards a tree indexed CSBP with immigration. Besides, we establish the version of the limit theorems in \cite{B2}, been for the unconditioned pr…
The reduced Markov branching process is a stochastic model for the genealogy of an unstructured biological population. Its limit behavior in the critical case is well studied for the Zolotarev-Slack regularity parameter $α\in(0,1]$. We turn to the case of very heavy tailed reproduction distribution $α=0$ assuming Zubkov's regularity condition with parameter $β\in(0,\infty)$. Our main result gives a new asymptotic pattern for the reduced branching process conditioned on non-extinction during a long time interval.
We characterise all the quasi-stationary distributions and the Q-process associated with a continuous state branching process that explodes in finite time. We also provide a rescaling for the continuous state branching process conditioned on non-explosion when the branching mechanism is regularly varying at 0.
In the present paper, we characterize the behavior of supercritical branching processes in random environment with linear fractional offspring distributions, conditioned on having small, but positive values at some large generation. As it has been noticed in previous works, there is a phase transition in the behavior of the process. Here, we examine the strongly and intermediately supercritical regimes The main result is a conditional limit theorem for the rescaled associated random walk in the intermediately case.
A multitype Dawson-Watanabe process is conditioned, in subcritical and critical cases, on non-extinction in the remote future. On every finite time interval, its distribution is absolutely continuous with respect to the law of the unconditioned process. A martingale problem characterization is also given. Several results on the long time behavior of the conditioned mass process|the conditioned multitype Feller branching diffusion are then proved. The general case is first considered, where the mutation matrix which models the interaction between the types, is irreducible. Several two-type mode…
We study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in a Lévy environment, where the associated Lévy process oscillates. Assuming that the Lévy process satisfies the Spitzer's condition and the existence of some exponential moments, we extend recent results where the associated branching mechanism was stable. Our study relies on the path analysis of the process together with its environment, when this latter is conditioned to have a non negative running infimum. This approach is inspired from the discrete setting with i.i.d. environment studied in (Afanasyev et al. 2005).
A continuous-time particle system on the real line satisfying the branching property and an exponential integrability condition is called a branching Lévy process, and its law is characterized by a triplet $(σ^2,a,Λ)$. We obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the convergence of the derivative martingale of such a process to a non-trivial limit in terms of $(σ^2,a,Λ)$. This extends previously known results on branching Brownian motions and branching random walks. To obtain this result, we rely on the spinal decomposition and establish a novel zero-one law on the perpetual integrals of…
We study a two-type branching process which provides excellent description of experimental data on cell dynamics in skin tissue (Clayton et al., 2007). The model involves only a single type of progenitor cell, and does not require support from a self-renewed population of stem cells. The progenitor cells divide and may differentiate into post-mitotic cells. We derive an exact solution of this model in terms of generating functions for the total number of cells, and for the number of cells of different types. We also deduce large time asymptotic behaviors drawing on our exact results, and on an…
By studying an admissible family of branching mechanisms introduced in Li (2014), we obtain a pruning procedure on Lévy trees. Then we could construct a decreasing Lévy-CRT-valued process $\{{\mathcal T}_t\}$ by pruning Lévy trees and an analogous process $\{{\mathcal T}^*_t\}$ by pruning a critical Lévy tree conditioned to be infinite. Under a regular condition on the admissible family of branching mechanisms, we show that the law of $\{{\mathcal T}_t\}$ at the ascension time can be represented by $\{{\mathcal T}^*_t\}$. The results generalize those studied in Abraham and Delmas (2012).
We study branching diffusions in a bounded domain $D$ of $\mathbb{R}^d$ in which particles are killed upon hitting the boundary $\partial D$. It is known that any such process undergoes a phase transition when the branching rate $β$ exceeds a critical value: a multiple of the first eigenvalue of the generator of the diffusion. We investigate the system at criticality and show that the associated genealogical tree, when the process is conditioned to survive for a long time, converges to Aldous' Continuum Random Tree under appropriate rescaling. The result holds under only a mild assumption on t…
We consider a birth and death process in which death is due to both `natural death' and to competition between individuals, modelled as a quadratic function of population size. The resulting `logistic branching process' has been proposed as a model for numbers of individuals in populations competing for some resource, or for numbers of species. However, because of the quadratic death rate, even if the intrinsic growth rate is positive, the population will, with probability one, die out in finite time. There is considerable interest in understanding the process conditioned on non-extinction. In…
We study analytically the order and gap statistics of particles at time $t$ for the one dimensional branching Brownian motion, conditioned to have a fixed number of particles at $t$. The dynamics of the process proceeds in continuous time where at each time step, every particle in the system either diffuses (with diffusion constant $D$), dies (with rate $d$) or splits into two independent particles (with rate $b$). We derive exact results for the probability distribution function of $g_k(t) = x_k(t) - x_{k+1}(t)$, the distance between successive particles, conditioned on the event that there a…
Branching processes $(Z_n)_{n \ge 0}$ in a varying environment generalize the Galton-Watson process, in that they allow time-dependence of the offspring distribution. Our main results concern general criteria for a.s. extinction, square-integrability of the martingale $(Z_n/\mathbf E[Z_n])_{n \ge 0}$, properties of the martingale limit $W$ and a Yaglom type result stating convergence to an exponential limit distribution of the suitably normalized population size $Z_n$, conditioned on the event $Z_n >0$. The theorems generalize/unify diverse results from the literature and lead to a classificat…
Consider a continuous-time binary branching process conditioned to have population size n at some time t, and with a chance p for recording each extinct individual in the process. Within the family tree of this process, we consider the smallest subtree containing the genealogy of the extant individuals together with the genealogy of the recorded extinct individuals. We introduce a novel representation of such subtrees in terms of a point-process, and provide asymptotic results on the distribution of this point-process as the number of extant individuals increases. We motivate the study within …
In this paper we study several aspects of the growth of a supercritical Galton-Watson process {Z_n:n\ge1}, and bring out some criticality phenomena determined by the Schroder constant. We develop the local limit theory of Z_n, that is, the behavior of P(Z_n=v_n) as v_n\nearrow \infty, and use this to study conditional large deviations of {Y_{Z_n}:n\ge1}, where Y_n satisfies an LDP, particularly of {Z_n^{-1}Z_{n+1}:n\ge1} conditioned on Z_n\ge v_n.
We consider the critical Galton-Watson process with overlapping generations stemming from a single founder. Assuming that both the variance of the offspring number and the average generation length are finite, we establish the convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions, conditioned on non-extinction at a remote time of observation. The limiting process is identified as a pure death process coming down from infinity. This result brings a new perspective on Vatutin's dichotomy claiming that in the critical regime of age-dependent reproduction, an extant population either contains a larg…
We consider a branching Brownian motion with linear drift in which particles are killed on exiting the interval (0,K) and study the evolution of the process on the event of survival as the width of the interval shrinks to the critical value at which survival is no longer possible. We combine spine techniques and a backbone decomposition to obtain exact asymptotics for the near-critical survival probability. This allows us to deduce the existence of a quasi-stationary limit result for the process conditioned on survival which reveals that the backbone thins down to a spine as we approach critic…
We consider one-dimensional branching Brownian motion in which particles are absorbed at the origin. We assume that when a particle branches, the offspring distribution is supercritical, but the particles are given a critical drift towards the origin so that the process eventually goes extinct with probability one. We establish precise asymptotics for the probability that the process survives for a large time t, building on previous results by Kesten (1978) and Berestycki, Berestycki, and Schweinsberg (2014). We also prove a Yaglom-type limit theorem for the behavior of the process conditioned…
Branching processes and Fleming-Viot processes are two main models in stochastic population theory. Incorporating an immigration in both models, we generalize the results of Shiga (1990) and Birkner et al. (2005) which respectively connect the Feller diffusion with the classical Fleming-Viot process and the alpha-stable continuous state branching process with the Beta(2-alpha, alpha)-generalized Fleming-Viot process. In a recent work, a new class of probability-measure valued processes, called M-generalized Fleming-Viot processes with immigration, has been set up in duality with the so-called …
We provide a many-to-few formula in the general setting of non-local branching Markov processes. This formula allows one to compute expectations of k-fold sums over functions of the population at k different times. The result generalises [14] to the non-local setting, as introduced in [11] and [8]. As an application, we consider the case when the branching process is critical, and conditioned to survive for a large time. In this setting, we prove a general formula for the limiting law of the death time of the most recent common ancestor of two particles selected uniformly from the population a…
In this paper, we study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in subcritical Lévy environments. More precisely, when the associated Lévy process to the environment drifts to $-\infty$ and, under a suitable exponential martingale change of measure (Esscher transform), the environment either drifts to $-\infty$ or oscillates. We extend recent results of Palau et al. (2016) and Li and Xu (2018), where the branching term is associated to a spectrally positive stable Lévy process and complement the recent article of Bansaye et al. (2021) where the critical case was studied…
We consider a subcritical branching process in an i.i.d. random environment, in which one immigrant arrives at each generation. We consider the event $% \mathcal{A}_{i}(n)$ that all individuals alive at time $n$ are offspring of the immigrant which joined the population at time $i$ and investigate the asymptotic probability of this extreme event when $n\to\infty$ and $i$ is either fixed, or the difference $n-i$ is fixed, or $\min(i,n-i)\to\infty.$ To deduce the desired asymptotics we establish some limit theorems for random walks conditioned to be nonnegative or negative.
We consider a supercritical branching process $Z_n$ in a stationary and ergodic random environment $ξ=(ξ_n)_{n\ge0}$. Due to the martingale convergence theorem, it is known that the normalized population size $W_n=Z_n/ (\mathbb E (Z_n|ξ))$ converges almost surely to a random variable $W$. We prove that if $W$ is not concentrated at $0$ or $1$ then for almost every environment $ξ$ the law of $W$ conditioned on the environment $ξ$ is absolutely continuous with a possible atom at $0$. The result generalizes considerably the main result of \cite{kaplan:1974}, and of course it covers the well-known…
We prove local convergence results of rerooted conditioned multi-type Galton--Watson trees. The limit objects are multitype variants of the random sin-tree constructed by Aldous (1991), and differ according to which types recur infinitely often along the backwards growing spine.
We consider branching random walks built on Galton-Watson trees with offspring distribution having a bounded support, conditioned to have $n$ nodes, and their rescaled convergences to the Brownian snake. We exhibit a notion of "globally centered discrete snake'' that extends the usual settings in which the displacements are supposed centered. We show that under some additional moment conditions, when $n$ goes to $+\infty$, "globally centered discrete snakes'' converge to the Brownian snake. The proof relies on a precise study of the "lineage'' of the nodes in a Galton-Watson tree conditioned b…
