瑞士存在不动产泡沫吗？
Is There A Real Estate Bubble in Switzerland?
摘要：
我们分析了瑞士住宅不动产市场可能出现泡沫的风险。这项工作中使用的数据由comparis.ch收集，并通过基于监督机器学习方法的程序从重复记录中仔细清理。该研究使用对数周期幂律（LPPL）泡沫模型来分析2005年至2013年期间瑞士所有地区住宅物业要价的发展。结果表明，有11个关键地区显示出泡沫的迹象，7个地区的泡沫已经破裂。尽管有这些强有力的迹象，但有人认为，根据目前的经济环境，预计将出现软着陆，而不是严重的崩溃。
英文摘要：
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure based on supervised machine learning methods. The study uses the log periodic power law (LPPL) bubble model to analyze the development of asking prices of residential properties in all Swiss districts between 2005 and 2013. The results suggest that there are 11 critical districts that exhibit signatures of bubbles, and seven districts where bubbles have already burst. Despite these strong signatures, it is argued that, based on the current economic environment, a soft landing rather than a severe crash is expected.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
