拉斯维加斯不动产市场分析：泡沫、季节性模式和CSW指数预测
Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indexes
摘要：
我们分析了拉斯维加斯1983年6月至2005年3月的27个房价指数，对应于27个不同的邮政编码。这些分析证实了房地产泡沫的存在，其定义是价格加速超过指数，但发现其仅限于最近一段相当有限的时间间隔，大约从2003年到2004年中期，并已逐步转变为与2005年泡沫前水平相当的正常增长率。除了1990年的一次中等规模的飙升之外，直到2002年都没有出现泡沫。此外，我们已经确定了一个强大的年度周期性，提供了一个很好的潜力，从月到月的微调预测。使用我们开发的模型进行每月监测，可以通过测试年内结构来确认市场是否确实恢复了“正常”，或者是否预计未来会出现更多动荡。我们预测了未来一年的指数的演变，这是验证了新的数据，截至2006年9月。目前的分析表明，在地方范围内存在非常显着的变化，在这个意义上说，拉斯维加斯的泡沫似乎已经在更全球化的美国泡沫之前，并已结束约两年（2004年中期拉斯维加斯相比，2006年中期的整个美国）。
英文摘要：
We analyze 27 house price indexes of Las Vegas from Jun. 1983 to Mar. 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real-estate bubble, defined as a price acceleration faster than exponential, which is found however to be confined to a rather limited time interval in the recent past from approximately 2003 to mid-2004 and has progressively transformed into a more normal growth rate comparable to pre-bubble levels in 2005. There has been no bubble till 2002 except for a medium-sized surge in 1990. In addition, we have identified a strong yearly periodicity which provides a good potential for fine-tuned prediction from month to month. A monthly monitoring using a model that we have developed could confirm, by testing the intra-year structure, if indeed the market has returned to ``normal'' or if more turbulence is expected ahead. We predict the evolution of the indexes one year ahead, which is validated with new data up to Sep. 2006. The present analysis demonstrates the existence of very significant variations at the local scale, in the sense that the bubble in Las Vegas seems to have preceded the more global USA bubble and has ended approximately two years earlier (mid 2004 for Las Vegas compared with mid-2006 for the whole of the USA).
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