金融泡沫、不动产泡沫、衍生品泡沫与金融经济危机
Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis
摘要：
2008年的金融危机，最初以抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）为明确的震中开始，一直在逐步演变为全球经济衰退，其日益严重和不确定的持续时间已经导致并将继续导致数十亿人遭受巨大损失和损害。世界各地，特别是美国和欧洲，都推出了大量的中央银行干预和政府支出计划，希望解冻信贷和提振消费。在这里，我们提出了证据，并阐明了一个一般框架，使人们能够诊断正在展开的金融和经济危机的根本原因：几个泡沫的积累及其相互作用和相互加强，导致了一种“永久货币机器”的错觉，允许金融机构从不可持续的人为过程中提取财富。对这一诊断进行评估后，我们得出结论，许多旨在解决所谓的流动性危机和鼓励更多消费的干预措施都是不明智的，甚至是危险的，因为预防性储备不是在“繁荣时期”积累的，而是在“繁荣时期”积累的。最“有趣”的时代是独特的机会，但也是巨大的挑战，我们为此提出一些建议。
英文摘要：
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. Heavy central bank interventions and government spending programs have been launched worldwide and especially in the USA and Europe, with the hope to unfreeze credit and boltster consumption. Here, we present evidence and articulate a general framework that allows one to diagnose the fundamental cause of the unfolding financial and economic crisis: the accumulation of several bubbles and their interplay and mutual reinforcement has led to an illusion of a "perpetual money machine" allowing financial institutions to extract wealth from an unsustainable artificial process. Taking stock of this diagnostic, we conclude that many of the interventions to address the so-called liquidity crisis and to encourage more consumption are ill-advised and even dangerous, given that precautionary reserves were not accumulated in the "good times" but that huge liabilities were. The most "interesting" present times constitute unique opportunities but also great challenges, for which we offer a few recommendations.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
