US中存在房地产泡沫吗？
Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?
摘要：
我们分析了美国整体，美国东北部，中西部，南部和西部，美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区的新房季度平均销售价格，以确定它们是否以指数速度增长，我们将其作为泡沫的诊断。我们发现，22个州（主要是东北部和西部）表现出快速增长的泡沫的鲜明特征。通过对标普500指数的分析，我们认为泡沫的转折点将可能出现在2006年中期左右。
英文摘要：
We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown faster-than-exponential which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
