2000-2003房地产泡沫在UK但不是在USA
2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA
摘要：
在2000年“新经济”泡沫破裂后，美联储在不到两年的时间里将短期利率收益率从6.5%大幅降至1.25%，试图促使美国经济更强劲地复苏。但是，人们越来越担心，这正在创造一个新的房地产泡沫，因为强劲的住房需求是由历史上较低的抵押贷款利率推动的。我们要从卡律布狄斯到锡拉吗？在许多其他指标显示存在显著通缩风险之际，这个问题更加令人痛苦。利用经济数据，美联储主席A.格林斯潘和州长D.L.科恩最近否认了这种可能性。使用理论的临界现象，从市场的正反馈，我们证实了这一点，美国，但发现，混乱可能是在商店为英国：我们发掘出一个强大的不可持续的泡沫，这可能在2003年底前破裂的明确无误的签名（对数周期性和幂律超指数加速）。
英文摘要：
In the aftermath of the burst of the ``new economy'' bubble in 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively reduced short-term rates yields in less than two years from 6.5% to 1.25% in an attempt to coax forth a stronger recovery of the US economy. But, there is growing apprehension that this is creating a new bubble in real estate, as strong housing demand is fuelled by historically low mortgage rates. Are we going from Charybdis to Scylla? This question is all the more excruciating at a time when many other indicators suggest a significant deflationary risk. Using economic data, Federal Reserve Chairman A. Greenspan and Governor D.L. Kohn dismissed recently this possibility. Using the theory of critical phenomena resulting from positive feedbacks in markets, we confirm this view point for the US but find that mayhem may be in store for the UK: we unearth the unmistakable signatures (log-periodicity and power law super-exponential acceleration) of a strong unsustainable bubble there, which could burst before the end of the year 2003.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
