Cascade Failures from Distributed Generation in Power Grids
ISC-CNR Physics Dept., Univ. ”La Sapienza”（意大利罗马大学 ISC-CNR 物理系）；IMT Alti Studi Lucca（卢卡高等研究所）；London Institute of Mathematical Sciences（伦敦数学科学研究所）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering Kansas State University（堪萨斯州立大学工程学院电气与计算机工程系）
Antonio Scala, Sakshi Pahwa, Caterina Scoglio
备注：
10 pages, 3 figures, Critis2012 satellite & Sesame Workshop "Topological Approach to the Vulnerability Assessment and Cascading Failure Analysis of Electricity Networks" to be published in International Journal of Critical Infrastructures
发表信息：
International Journal of Critical Infrastructures 11, pp 27-35, 2015
Power grids are nowadays experiencing a transformation due to the introduction of Distributed Generation based on Renewable Sources. At difference with classical Distributed Generation, where local power sources mitigate anomalous user consumption peaks, Renewable Sources introduce in the grid intrinsically erratic power inputs. By introducing a simple schematic (but realistic) model for power grids with stochastic distributed generation, we study the effects of erratic sources on the robustness of several IEEE power grid test networks with up to 2000 buses. We find that increasing the penetration of erratic sources causes the grid to fail with a sharp transition. We compare such results with the case of failures caused by the natural increasing power demand.
Cascading failure as a systematic risk occurs in a wide range of real-world networks. Cascade size distribution is a basic and crucial characteristic of systemic cascade behaviors. Recent research works have revealed that the distribution of cascade sizes is a bimodal form indicating the existence of either very small cascades or large ones. In this paper, we aim to understand the properties and formation of such bimodal distribution of cascade sizes in complex networks, and further predict the final cascade size. We first find that the bimodal distribution of cascade sizes is ubiquitous in bo…
For large-scale power networks, the failure of particular transmission lines can offload power to other lines and cause self-protection trips to activate, instigating a cascade of line failures. In extreme cases, this can bring down the entire network. Learning where the vulnerabilities are and the expected timescales for which failures are likely is an active area of research. In this article we present a novel stochastic dynamics model for a large-scale power network along with a framework for efficient computer simulation of the model including long timescale events such as cascade failure.…
We propose a phase model to study cascade failure in power grids composed of generators and loads. If the power demand is below a critical value, the model system of power grids maintains the standard frequency by feedback control. On the other hand, if the power demand exceeds the critical value, an electric failure occurs via step out (loss of synchronization) or voltage collapse. The two failures are incorporated as two removal rules of generator nodes and load nodes. We perform direct numerical simulation of the phase model on a scale-free network and compare the results with a mean-field …
Interdependencies are ubiquitous throughout the world. Every real-world system interacts with and is dependent on other systems, and this interdependency affects their performance. In particular, interdependencies among networks make them vulnerable to failure cascades, the effects of which are often catastrophic. Failure propagation fragments network components, disconnects them, and may cause complete systemic failure. We propose a strategy of avoiding or at least mitigating the complete destruction of a system of interdependent networks experiencing a failure cascade. Starting with a fracti…
MATCASC: A tool to analyse cascading line outages in power grids
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学技术、政策与管理学院）；Computational Physics for Engineering Materials, ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院工程材料计算物理）
Understanding and analyzing cascading failures in power grids have been the focus of many researchers for years. However, the complex interactions among the large number of components in these systems and their contributions to cascading failures are not yet completely understood. Therefore, various techniques have been developed and used to model and analyze the underlying interactions among the components of the power grid with respect to cascading failures. Such methods are important to reveal the essential information that may not be readily available from power system physical models and …
ISC-CNR Physics Dept., Univ. dir Roma "La Sapienza"（罗马第一大学）；IMT Alti Studi Lucca（卢卡高等研究院）；LIMS London Institute of Mathematical Sciences（伦敦数学科学研究所）；Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas（古比雪夫俄罗斯国立石油天然气大学）；ENEA: Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development（意大利国家新能源与可持续发展技术署）
Two node variables determine the evolution of cascades in random networks: a node's degree and threshold. Correlations between both fundamentally change the robustness of a network, yet, they are disregarded in standard analytic methods as local tree or heterogeneous mean field approximations because of the bad tractability of order statistics. We show how they become tractable in the thermodynamic limit of infinite network size. This enables the analytic description of node attacks that are characterized by threshold allocations based on node degree. Using two examples, we discuss possible im…
The understanding of cascading failures in complex systems has been hindered by the lack of realistic large-scale modeling and analysis that can account for variable system conditions. Here, using the North American power grid, we identify, quantify, and analyze the set of network components that are vulnerable to cascading failures under any out of multiple conditions. We show that the vulnerable set consists of a small but topologically central portion of the network and that large cascades are disproportionately more likely to be triggered by initial failures close to this set. These result…
Modern network-like systems are usually coupled in such a way that failures in one network can affect the entire system. In infrastructures, biology, sociology, and economy, systems are interconnected and events taking place in one system can propagate to any other coupled system. Recent studies on such coupled systems show that the coupling increases their vulnerability to random failure. Properties for interdependent networks differ significantly from those of single-network systems. In this article, these results are reviewed and the main properties discussed.
Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in…
How big is the risk that a few initial failures of nodes in a network amplify to large cascades that span a substantial share of all nodes? Predicting the final cascade size is critical to ensure the functioning of a system as a whole. Yet, this task is hampered by uncertain or changing parameters and missing information. In infinitely large networks, the average cascade size can often be well estimated by established approaches building on local tree approximations and mean field approximations. Yet, as we demonstrate, in finite networks, this average does not even need to be a likely outcome…
Localized perturbations in a real-world network have the potential to trigger cascade failures at the whole system level, hindering its operations and functions. Standard approaches analytically tackling this problem are mostly based either on static descriptions, such as percolation, or on models where the failure evolves through first-neighbor connections, crucially failing to capture the nonlocal behavior typical of real cascades. We introduce a dynamical model that maps the failure propagation across the network to a self-avoiding random walk that, at each step, has a probability to perfor…
Electrical power grids are vulnerable to cascading failures that can lead to large blackouts. Detection and prevention of cascading failures in power grids is impor- tant. Currently, grid operators mainly monitor the state (loading level) of individual components in power grids. The complex architecture of power grids, with many interdependencies, makes it difficult to aggregate data provided by local compo- nents in a timely manner and meaningful way: monitoring the resilience with re- spect to cascading failures of an operational power grid is a challenge. This paper addresses this challenge…
A characteristic property of networks is their ability to propagate influences, such as infectious diseases, behavioral changes, and failures. An especially important class of such contagious dynamics is that of cascading processes. These processes include, for example, cascading failures in infrastructure systems, extinctions cascades in ecological networks, and information cascades in social systems. In this review, we discuss recent progress and challenges associated with the modeling, prediction, detection, and control of cascades in networks.
Transmission line failures in power systems propagate and cascade non-locally. This well-known yet counter-intuitive feature makes it even more challenging to optimally and reliably operate these complex networks. In this work we present a comprehensive framework based on spectral graph theory that fully and rigorously captures how multiple simultaneous line failures propagate, distinguishing between non-cut and cut set outages. Using this spectral representation of power systems, we identify the crucial graph sub-structure that ensures line failure localization -- the network bridge-block dec…
Understanding how interdependence among systems affects cascading behaviors is increasingly important across many fields of science and engineering.Inspired by cascades of load shedding in coupled electric grids and other infrastructure, we study the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model on modular random graphs and on graphs based on actual, interdependent power grids. Starting from two isolated networks, adding some connectivity between them is beneficial, for it suppresses the largest cascades in each system. Too much interconnectivity, however, becomes detrimental for two reasons. First, inte…
Cascading failures are one of the main reasons for blackouts in electric power transmission grids. The economic cost of such failures is in the order of tens of billion dollars annually. The loading level of power system is a key aspect to determine the amount of the damage caused by cascading failures. Existing studies show that the blackout size exhibits phase transitions as the loading level increases. This paper investigates the impact of the topology of a power grid on phase transitions in its robustness. Three spectral graph metrics are considered: spectral radius, effective graph resist…
Real-world network systems, for example, power grids, are critical to modern economies. Due to the increasing system scale and complex dependencies inside of these networks, system failures can widely spread and cause severe damage. We have experienced massive cascading failures in power grids, such as major U.S. western grid failures in 1996 and the great Northeast blackout of 2003. Therefore, analyzing cascading failures and defense strategies, in response to system catastrophic breakdown, is crucial. Although many efforts have been performed to prevent failure propagation throughout systems…
In network systems, a local perturbation can amplify as it propagates, potentially leading to a large-scale cascading failure. Here we derive a continuous model to advance our understanding of cascading failures in power-grid networks. The model accounts for both the failure of transmission lines and the desynchronization of power generators, and incorporates the transient dynamics between successive steps of the cascade. In this framework, we show that a cascade event is a phase-space transition from an equilibrium state with high energy to an equilibrium state with lower energy, which can be…
One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can cause extensive damages in infrastructure systems and, potentially, destroy components in electricity transmission networks, which in turn can lead to major blackouts. In our recent work, we study the risk of hurricane-induced cascading failures in power systems of the U.S. East Coast using historical wind field data sets. For this purpose, we model the destruc…
Large cascades are a common occurrence in many natural and engineered complex systems. In this paper we explore the propagation of cascades across networks using realistic network topologies, such as heterogeneous degree distributions, as well as intra- and interlayer degree correlations. We find that three properties, scale-free degree distribution, internal network assortativity, and cross-network hub-to-hub connections, are all necessary components to significantly reduce the size of large cascades in the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model. We demonstrate that correlations present in the st…
Cascading failures are one of the main reasons for blackouts in electrical power grids. Stable power supply requires a robust design of the power grid topology. Currently, the impact of the grid structure on the grid robustness is mainly assessed by purely topological metrics, that fail to capture the fundamental properties of the electrical power grids such as power flow allocation according to Kirchhoff's laws. This paper deploys the effective graph resistance as a metric to relate the topology of a grid to its robustness against cascading failures. Specifically, the effective graph resistan…
Here we develop an approach to predict power grid weak points, and specifically to efficiently identify the most probable failure modes in static load distribution for a given power network. This approach is applied to two examples: Guam's power system and also the IEEE RTS-96 system, both modeled within the static Direct Current power flow model. Our algorithm is a power network adaption of the worst configuration heuristics, originally developed to study low probability events in physics and failures in error-correction. One finding is that, if the normal operational mode of the grid is suff…
External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical constellations determine whether this cascade remains finite or reaches the size of the system, i.e. leads to systemic risk. We investigate the critical parameters for such cascades in a simple model, where agents are characterized by an individual threshold θ_i determining their capacity to handle a load αθ_i with 1-αbeing their safety margin. If agents fail,…
Using the linearized DC power flow model, we study cascading failures and their spatial and temporal properties in the US Western Interconnect (USWI) power grid. We also introduce the preferential Degree And Distance Attachment (DADA) model, with similar degree distributions, resistances, and currents to the USWI. We investigate the behavior of both grids resulting from the failure of a single line. We find that the DADA model and the USWI model react very similarly to that failure, and that their blackout characteristics resemble each other. In many cases, the failure of a single line can cau…
We model smart grids as complex interdependent networks, and study targeted attacks on smart grids for the first time. A smart grid consists of two networks: the power network and the communication network, interconnected by edges. Occurrence of failures (attacks) in one network triggers failures in the other network, and propagates in cascades across the networks. Such cascading failures can result in disintegration of either (or both) of the networks. Earlier works considered only random failures. In practical situations, an attacker is more likely to compromise nodes selectively. We study c…
Multilayer systems are coupled networks characterized by different contexts (layers) of interaction and have gained much attention recently due to their suitability to describe a broad spectrum of empirical complex systems. They are very fragile to percolation and first-neighbor failure propagation, but little is known about how they respond to non-local disruptions, as it occurs in failures induced by flow redistribution, for example. Acknowledging that many socio-technical and biological systems sustain a flow of some physical quantity, such as energy or information, across the their compone…
Electric failures are a problem for customers and grid operators. Identifying causes and localizing the source of failures in the grid is critical. Here, we focus on a specific power grid in the Arctic region of North Norway. First, we collect data pertaining to the grid topology, the topography of the area, the historical meteorological data, and the historical energy consumption/production data. Then, we exploit statistical and machine-learning techniques to predict the occurrence of failures. We interpret the variables that mostly explain the classification results to be the main driving fa…
We study the propagation of cascading failures in complex supply networks with a focus on nonlocal effects occurring far away from the initial failure. It is shown that a high clustering and a small average path length of a network generally suppress nonlocal overloads. These properties are typical for many real-world networks, often called small-world networks, such that cascades propagate mostly locally in these networks. Furthermore, we analyze the spatial aspects of countermeasures based on the intentional removal of additional edges. Nonlocal actions are generally required in networks whi…
We introduce a new microscopic model of the outages in transmission power grids. This model accounts for the automatic response of the grid to load fluctuations that take place on the scale of minutes, when the optimum power flow adjustments and load shedding controls are unavailable. We describe extreme events, initiated by load fluctuations, which cause cascading failures of loads, generators and lines. Our model is quasi-static in the causal, discrete time and sequential resolution of individual failures. The model, in its simplest realization based on the Directed Current description of th…
Cascading failures are a critical vulnerability of complex information or infrastructure networks. Here we investigate the properties of load-based cascading failures in real and synthetic spatially-embedded network structures, and propose mitigation strategies to reduce the severity of damages caused by such failures. We introduce a stochastic method for optimal heterogeneous distribution of resources (node capacities) subject to a fixed total cost. Additionally, we design and compare the performance of networks with N-stable and (N-1)-stable network-capacity allocations by triggering cascade…
We study, both analytically and numerically, the cascade of failures in two coupled network systems A and B, where multiple support-dependent relations are randomly built between nodes of networks A and B. In our model we assume that each node in one network can function only if it has at least a single support node in the other network. If both networks A and B are Erdős-Rényi networks, A and B, with (i) sizes $N^A$ and $N^B$, (ii) average degrees $a$ and $b$, and (iii) $c^{AB}_0N^B$ support links from network A to B and $c^{BA}_0N^B$ support links from network B to A, we find that under rand…
In a system of interdependent networks, an initial failure of nodes invokes a cascade of iterative failures that may lead to a total collapse of the whole system in a form of an abrupt first order transition. When the fraction of initial failed nodes $1-p$ reaches criticality, $p=p_c$, the abrupt collapse occurs by spontaneous cascading failures. At this stage, the giant component decreases slowly in a plateau form and the number of iterations in the cascade, $τ$, diverges. The origin of this plateau and its increasing with the size of the system remained unclear. Here we find that simultaneou…
Cascade models on networks have been used extensively to study cascade failure in complex systems. However, most current models consider failure caused by node damage and neglect the possibility of link damage, which is relevant to transportation, social dynamics, biology, and medicine. In an attempt to generalize conventional cascade models to link damage, we propose a link cascade model based on the standard independent cascade model, which is then solved via both numerical simulation and analytic approximation. We find that the probability that a node loses all its links due to link damage …
Epidemic spreading and cascading failure are two important dynamical processes over complex networks. They have been investigated separately for a long history. But in the real world, these two dynamics sometimes may interact with each other. In this paper, we explore a model combined with SIR epidemic spreading model and local loads sharing cascading failure model. There exists a critical value of tolerance parameter that whether the epidemic with high infection probability can spread out and infect a fraction of the network in this model. When the tolerance parameter is smaller than the crit…
Recently, there has been a growing concern about the overload status of the power grid networks, and the increasing possibility of cascading failures. Many researchers have studied these networks to provide design guidelines for more robust power grids. Topological analysis is one of the components of system analysis for its robustness. This paper presents a complex systems analysis of power grid networks. First, the cascading effect has been simulated on three well known networks: the IEEE 300 bus test system, the IEEE 118 bus test system, and the WSCC 179 bus equivalent model. To extend the …
Modern networks are becoming increasingly interdependent. As a prominent example, the smart grid is an electrical grid controlled through a communications network, which in turn is powered by the electrical grid. Such interdependencies create new vulnerabilities and make these networks more susceptible to failures. In particular, failures can easily spread across these networks due to their interdependencies, possibly causing cascade effects with a devastating impact on their functionalities. In this paper we focus on the interdependence between the power grid and the communications network, a…
Many critical infrastructure systems have network structure and are under stress. Despite their national importance, the complexity of large-scale transport networks means we do not fully understand their vulnerabilities to cascade failures. The research in this paper examines the interdependent rail networks in Greater London and surrounding commuter area. We focus on the morning commuter hours, where the system is under the most demand stress. There is increasing evidence that the topological shape of the network plays an important role in dynamic cascades. Here, we examine whether the diffe…
Empirical research with electricity transmission networks reliability data shows that the size of major failures - in terms of energy not supplied (ENS), total loss of power (TLP) or restoration time (RT) - appear to follow a power law behaviour in the upper tail of the distribution. However, this pattern - also known as Pareto distribution - is not valid in the whole range of those major events. We aimed to find a probability distribution that we could use to model them, and hypothesized that there is a two-parameter model that fits the pattern of those data well in the entire domain. We cons…
An adversary looking to disrupt a power grid may look to target certain substations and sources of power generation to initiate a cascading failure that maximizes the number of customers without electricity. This is particularly an important concern when the enemy has the capability to launch cyber-attacks as practical concerns (i.e. avoiding disruption of service, presence of legacy systems, etc.) may hinder security. Hence, a defender can harden the security posture at certain power stations but may lack the time and resources to do this for the entire power grid. We model a power grid as a …
Robust synchronization is indispensable for stable operation of a power grid. Recently, it has been reported that a large number of decentralized generators, rather than a small number of large power plants, provide enhanced synchronization together with greater robustness against structural failures. In this paper, we systematically control the spatial uniformity of the geographical distribution of generators, and conclude that the more uniformly generators are distributed, the more enhanced synchronization occurs. In the presence of temporal failures of power sources, we observe that spatial…
The Texan electric network in the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by Tropical Cyclones (TC) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here, we introduce a new approach of combining a probabilistic line fragility model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the temporal evolution of wind-induced failures of transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical hurricanes. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to a static appro…
This paper considers the dynamics of edges in a network. The Dynamic Bond Percolation (DBP) process models, through stochastic local rules, the dependence of an edge $(a,b)$ in a network on the states of its neighboring edges. Unlike previous models, DBP does not assume statistical independence between different edges. In applications, this means for example that failures of transmission lines in a power grid are not statistically independent, or alternatively, relationships between individuals (dyads) can lead to changes in other dyads in a social network. We consider the time evolution of th…
Power grids vulnerability is a key issue in society. A component failure may trigger cascades of failures across the grid and lead to a large blackout. Complex network approaches have shown a direction to study some of the problems faced by power grids. Within Complex Network Analysis structural vulnerabilities of power grids have been studied mostly using purely topological approaches, which assumes that flow of power is dictated by shortest paths. However, this fails to capture the real flow characteristics of power grids. We have proposed a flow redistribution mechanism that closely mimics …
In our daily lives, we rely on the proper functioning of supply networks, from power grids to water transmission systems. A single failure in these critical infrastructures can lead to a complete collapse through a cascading failure mechanism. Counteracting strategies are thus heavily sought after. In this article, we introduce a general framework to analyse the spreading of failures in complex networks and demonstrate that both weak and strong connections can be used to contain damages. We rigorously prove the existence of certain subgraphs, called network isolators, that can completely inhib…
A phase model with feedback control is studied as a dynamical model of power grids. As an example, we study a model network corresponding to the power grid in the Kyushu region. The standard frequency is maintained by the mutual synchronization and the feedback control. Electric failures are induced by an overload. We propose a local feedback method in which the strength of feedback control is proportional to the magnitude of generators. We find that the electric failures do not occur until the utilization ratio is close to 1 under this feedback control. We also find that the temporal response…
Carreras, Dobson and colleagues have studied empirical data on the sizes of the blackouts in real grids and modeled them by computer simulations using the direct current approximation. They have found that the resulting blackout sizes are distributed as a power law and suggested that this is because the grids are driven to the self-organized critical state. In contrast, more recent studies found that the distribution of cascades is bimodal as in a first order phase transition, resulting in either a very small blackout or a very large blackout, engulfing a finite fraction of the system. Here we…
The effect of HVDC lines in power-grids via Kuramoto modelling
Institute of Technical Physics and Materials Science, HUN-REN Centre for Energy Research（匈牙利科学院能源研究中心技术物理与材料科学研究所）；Department of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Physics, Budapest University of Technology and Economics（布达佩斯科技大学物理学院理论物理系）
