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arXiv 1202.2532q-fin.RM
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操作风险的动态度量方法

A Dynamical Approach to Operational Risk Measurement

Marco Bardoscia, Roberto Bellotti

摘要:

本文提出了一个银行机构操作风险的动态估计模型。运营风险是由于流程失败而导致财务损失的风险。运营损失的例子包括内部欺诈、人为错误或交易失败。为了包含最异构的一组过程,在我们的方法中,每个过程的损失是由随机噪声,与其他过程的相互作用和银行为避免损失所做的努力之间的相互作用产生的。我们展示了如何从历史运营损失数据库中估计模型的一些相关参数,验证估计过程并测试模型的预测能力。与传统的统计方法相比,我们的方法的一些优点是,它允许遵循损失的整个时间演变,并考虑到不同时间的过程之间的相关性。

英文摘要:

We propose a dynamical model for the estimation of Operational Risk in banking institutions. Operational Risk is the risk that a financial loss occurs as the result of failed processes. Examples of operational losses are the ones generated by internal frauds, human errors or failed transactions. In order to encompass the most heterogeneous set of processes, in our approach the losses of each process are generated by the interplay among random noise, interactions with other processes and the efforts the bank makes to avoid losses. We show how some relevant parameters of the model can be estimated from a database of historical operational losses, validate the estimation procedure and test the forecasting power of the model. Some advantages of our approach over the traditional statistical techniques are that it allows to follow the whole time evolution of the losses and to take into account different-time correlations among the processes.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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