We study the short-time asymptotics of conditional expectations of smooth and non-smooth functions of a (discontinuous) Ito semimartingale; we compute the leading term in the asymptotics in terms of the local characteristics of the semimartingale. We derive in particular the asymptotic behavior of call options with short maturity in a semimartingale model: whereas the behavior of \textit{out-of-the-money} options is found to be linear in time, the short time asymptotics of \textit{at-the-money} options is shown to depend on the fine structure of the semimartingale.
We exhibit conditions under which the flow of marginal distributions of a discontinuous semimartingale $ξ$ can be matched by a Markov process, whose infinitesimal generator is expressed in terms of the local characteristics of $ξ$. Our construction applies to a large class of semimartingales, including smooth functions of a Markov process. We use this result to derive a partial integro-differential equation for the one-dimensional distributions of a semimartingale, extending the Kolmogorov forward equation to a non-Markovian setting.
We give conditions under which the normalized marginal distribution of a semimartingale converges to a Gaussian limit law as time tends to zero. In particular, our result is applicable to solutions of stochastic differential equations with locally bounded and continuous coefficients. The limit theorems are subsequently extended to functional central limit theorems on the process level. We present two applications of the results in the field of mathematical finance: to the pricing of at-the-money digital options with short maturities and short time implied volatility skews.
We prove that typical (in the model-free finance setting) price paths with jumps may be uniformly approximated with accuracy $c>0$ by paths whose total variation is of order $1/c.$ A more precise result is obtained for semimartingales with jumps.
This paper is concerned with the asymptotic behavior of sums of terms which are a test function f evaluated at successive increments of a discretely sampled semimartingale. Typically the test function is a power function (when the power is 2 we get the realized quadratic variation) . We prove a variety of ``laws of large numbers'', that is convergence in probability of these sums, sometimes after normalization. We also exhibit in many cases the rate of convergence, as well as associated central limit theorems.
A Milstein-type scheme was proposed to improve the rate of convergence of its approximation of the solution to a stochastic differential equation driven by a vector of continuous semimartingales. A necessary and sufficient condition was provided for this rate to be $1/n$ when the SDE is driven by a vector of continuous local martingales, or continuous semimartingales under an additional assumption on their finite variation part. The asymptotic behavior (weak convergence) of the normalized error processes was also studied.
The semimartingale stochastic approximation procedure, namely, the Robbins-Monro type SDE is introduced which naturally includes both generalized stochastic approximation algorithms with martingale noises and recursive parameter estimation procedures for statistical models associated with semimartingales. General results concerning the asymptotic behaviour of the solution are presented. In particular, the conditions ensuring the convergence, rate of convergence and asymptotic expansion are established. The results concerning the Polyak weighted averaging procedure are also presented.
We delve deeper into the study of semimartingale attractors that we recently introduced in Allouba and Langa \cite{AL0}. In this article we focus on second order SPDEs of the Allen-Cahn type. After proving existence, uniqueness, and detailed regularity results for our SPDEs and a corresponding random PDE of Allen-Cahn type, we prove the existence of semimartingale global attractors for these equations. We also give some results on the finite dimensional asymptotic behavior of the solutions. In particular, we show the finite fractal dimension of this random attractor and give a result on determ…
In this paper we examine the asymptotic theory for U-statistics and V-statistics of discontinuous Ito semimartingales that are observed at high frequency. For different types of kernel functions we show laws of large numbers and associated stable central limit theorems. In most of the cases the limiting process will be conditionally centered Gaussian. The structure of the kernel function determines whether the jump and/or the continuous part of the semimartingale contribute to the limit.
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of sums of functions of the increments of a given semimartingale, taken along a regular grid whose mesh goes to 0. The function of the $i$th increment may depend on the current time, and also on the past of the semimartingale before this time. We study the convergence in probability of two types of such sums, and we also give associated central limit theorems. This extends known results when the summands are a function depending only on the increments, and this is motivated mainly by statistical applications.
In this paper we present the asymptotic analysis of the realised quadratic variation for multivariate symmetric $β$-stable Lévy processes, $β\in (0,2)$, and certain pure jump semimartingales. The main focus is on derivation of functional limit theorems for the realised quadratic variation and its spectrum. We will show that the limiting process is a matrix-valued $β$-stable Lévy process when the original process is symmetric $β$-stable, while the limit is conditionally $β$-stable in case of integrals with respect to symmetric $β$-stable motions. These asymptotic results are mostly related to t…
We consider a market with a term structure of credit risky bonds in the single-name case. We aim at minimal assumptions extending existing results in this direction: first, the random field of forward rates is driven by a general semimartingale. Second, the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach is extended with an additional component capturing those future jumps in the term structure which are visible from the current time. Third, the associated recovery scheme is as general as possible, it is only assumed to be non-increasing. In this general setting we derive generalized drift conditions which chara…
This paper presents the asymptotic theory for nondegenerate $U$-statistics of high frequency observations of continuous Itô semimartingales. We prove uniform convergence in probability and show a functional stable central limit theorem for the standardized version of the $U$-statistic. The limiting process in the central limit theorem turns out to be conditionally Gaussian with mean zero. Finally, we indicate potential statistical applications of our probabilistic results.
In this paper, we study the ruin problem with investment in a general framework where the business part X is a L{é}vy process and the return on investment R is a semimartingale. We obtain upper bounds on the finite and infinite time ruin probabilities that decrease as a power function when the initial capital increases. When R is a L{é}vy process, we retrieve the well-known results. Then, we show that these bounds are asymptotically optimal in the finite time case, under some simple conditions on the characteristics of X. Finally, we obtain a condition for ruin with probability one when X is a…
We consider the moderate deviations behaviors for two (co-) volatility estima-tors: generalised bipower variation, Hayashi-Yoshida estimator. The results are obtained by using a new result about the moderate deviations principle for m-dependent random variables based on the Chen-Ledoux type condition. In the last decade there has been a considerable development of the asymptotic theory for processes observed at a high frequency. This was mainly motivated by financial applications , where the data, such as stock prices or currencies, are observed very frequently. As under the no-arbitrage assum…
In this paper we study the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities for an insurance company that faces heavy-tailed claims, uses predictable investment strategies and makes investments in risky assets whose prices evolve according to quite general semimartingales. We show that the ruin problem corresponds to determining hitting probabilities for the solution to a randomly perturbed stochastic integral equation. We derive a large deviation result for the hitting probabilities that holds uniformly over a family of semimartingales and show that this result gives the asymptotic decay of…
In an incomplete model, where under an appropriate numéraire, the stock price process is driven by a sigma-bounded semimartingale, we investigate the behavior of the expected utility maximization problem under small perturbations of the numéraire. We establish a quadratic approximation of the value function and a first-order expansion of the terminal wealth. Relying on a description of the base return process in terms of its semimartingale characteristics, we also construct wealth processes and nearly optimal strategies that allow for matching the primal value function up to the second order. …
This paper studies the asymptotic behavior of processes with switching. More precisely, the stability under fast switching for diffusion processes and discrete state space Markovian processes is considered. The proofs are based on semimartingale techniques, so that no Markovian assumption for the modulating process is needed.
Asymptotic error distribution for approximation of a stochastic integral with respect to continuous semimartingale by Riemann sum with general stochastic partition is studied. Effective discretization schemes of which asymptotic conditional mean-squared error attains a lower bound are constructed. Two applications are given; efficient delta hedging strategies with transaction costs and effective discretization schemes for the Euler-Maruyama approximation are constructed.
We consider Riemann sum approximations of stochastic integrals with respect to the fractional Browian motion of index $H\geq \frac12$. We show the convergence of these schemes at first and second order. The processes obtained in the limit in the second case are stochastic integrals with respect to the Rosenblatt process if $H >\frac34$ and the standard Brownian motion otherwise. These results are obtained under the assumption that the integrand is a `controlled' process. We provide many examples of such processes, in particular fractional semimartingales and multiple Wiener-Itô integrals
In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional sticky Brownian motion. Sticky Brownian motions can be viewed as time-changed semimartingale reflecting Brownian motions, which find applications in many areas including queueing theory and mathematical finance. For example, a sticky Brownian motion can be used to model a storage system.with exceptional services. In this paper, we focus on stationary distributions for sticky Brownian motions. The main results obtained here include tail asymptotic properties in boundary stationary distributions, marginal distributions, and joint distributions. The ke…
The semimartingale reflecting Brownian motion (SRBM) can be a heavy traffic limit for many server queueing networks. Asymptotic properties for stationary probabilities of the SRBM have attracted a lot of attention recently. However, many results are obtained only for the two-dimensional SRBM. There is only little work related to higher dimensional ($\geq 3$) SRBMs. In this paper, we consider a three dimensional SRBM: A three dimensional Brownian-driven tandem queue with intermediate inputs. We are interested in tail asymptotics for stationary distributions. By generalizing the kernel method an…
In the compagnion paper [Marginal density expansions for diffusions and stochastic volatility, part I] we discussed density expansions for multidimensional diffusions $(X^1,...,X^d)$, at fixed time $T$ and projected to their first $l$ coordinates, in the small noise regime. Global conditions were found which replace the well-known "not-in-cutlocus" condition known from heat-kernel asymptotics. In the present paper we discuss financial applications; these include tail and implied volatility asymptotics in some correlated stochastic volatility models. In particular, we solve a problem left open …
If the Euclidean norm is strongly concentrated with respect to a measure, the average distribution of an average marginal of this measure has Gaussian asymptotics that captures tail behaviour. If the marginals of the measure have exponential moments, Gaussian asymptotics for the distribution of the average marginal implies Gaussian asymptotics for the distribution of most individual marginals. We show applications to measures of geometric origin.
Density expansions for hypoelliptic diffusions $(X^1,...,X^d)$ are revisited. In particular, we are interested in density expansions of the projection $(X_T^1,...,X_T^l)$, at time $T>0$, with $l \leq d$. Global conditions are found which replace the well-known "not-in-cutlocus" condition known from heat-kernel asymptotics. Our small noise expansion allows for a "second order" exponential factor. As application, new light is shed on the Takanobu--Watanabe expansion of Brownian motion and Levy's stochastic area. Further applications include tail and implied volatility asymptotics in some stochas…
We call a multidimensional distribution to be decomposable with respect to a partition of two sets of coordinates if the original distribution is the product of the marginal distributions associated with these two sets. We focus on the stationary distribution of a multidimensional semimartingale reflecting Brownian motion (SRBM) on a nonnegative orthant. An SRBM is uniquely determined (in distribution) by its data that consists of a covariance matrix, a drift vector, and a reflection matrix. Assume that the stationary distribution of an SRBM exists. We first characterize two marginal distribut…
We study convergence properties of pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (Andrieu and Roberts [Ann. Statist. 37 (2009) 697-725]). We find that the asymptotic variance of the pseudo-marginal algorithm is always at least as large as that of the marginal algorithm. We show that if the marginal chain admits a (right) spectral gap and the weights (normalised estimates of the target density) are uniformly bounded, then the pseudo-marginal chain has a spectral gap. In many cases, a similar result holds for the absolute spectral gap, which is equivalent to geometric ergodicity. We consid…
We continue the development, started in of the asymptotic description of certain stochastic neural networks. We use the Large Deviation Principle (LDP) and the good rate function H announced there to prove that H has a unique minimum mu_e, a stationary measure on the set of trajectories. We characterize this measure by its two marginals, at time 0, and from time 1 to T. The second marginal is a stationary Gaussian measure. With an eye on applications, we show that its mean and covariance operator can be inductively computed. Finally we use the LDP to establish various convergence results, aver…
We study the joint distribution of the set of all marginals of a random Wishart matrix acting on a tensor product Hilbert space. We compute the limiting free mixed cumulants of the marginals, and we show that in the balanced asymptotical regime, the marginals are asymptotically free. We connect the matrix integrals relevant to the study of operators on tensor product spaces with the corresponding classes of combinatorial maps, for which we develop the combinatorial machinery necessary for the asymptotic study. Finally, we present some applications to the theory of random quantum states in quan…
Random tensors can be used to produce random matrices. This idea is, for instance, very natural when one studies random quantum states with the aim of exploring properties that are generically true, or true with some probability. We hereby study the moments generating function, in the sense of the Stieltjes transform - i.e. the resolvent -, of a random matrix defined as a product of two different marginals of the same random tensor. We study the resolvent in two different asymptotical regimes. In the first regime, the resolvent is easily computed thanks to freeness results for the two differen…
Motivated by a problem arising from Density Functional Theory, we provide the sharp next-order asymptotics for a class of multimarginal optimal transport problems with cost given by singular, long-range pairwise interaction potentials. More precisely, we consider an $N$-marginal optimal transport problem with $N$ equal marginals supported on $\mathbb R^d$ and with cost of the form $\sum_{i\neq j}|x_i-x_j|^{-s}$. In this setting we determine the second-order term in the $N\to\infty$ asymptotic expansion of the minimum energy, for the long-range interactions corresponding to all exponents $0<s<d…
In this paper we consider the convex hull of a spherically symmetric sample in $R^d$. Our main contributions are some new asymptotic results for the expectation of the number of vertices, number of facets, area and the volume of the convex hull assuming that the marginal distributions are in the Gumbel max-domain of attraction. Further, we briefly discuss two other models assuming that the marginal distributions are regularly varying or $O$-regularly varying.
In this paper we prove the weak convergence, in a high-temperature phase, of the finite marginals of the Gibbs measure associated to a symmetric spherical spin glass model with correlated couplings towards an explicit asymptotic decoupled measure. We also provide upper bounds for the rate of convergence in terms of the one of the energy per variable. Furthermore, we establish a concentration inequality for bounded functions under a higher temperature condition. These results are exemplified by analysing the asymptotic behaviour of the empirical mean of coordinate-wise functions of samples from…
The effect of disorder for pinning models is a subject which has attracted much attention in theoretical physics and rigorous mathematical physics. A peculiar point of interest is the question of coincidence of the quenched and annealed critical point for a small amount of disorder. The question has been mathematically settled in most cases in the last few years, giving in particular a rigorous validation of the Harris Criterion on disorder relevance. However, the marginal case, where the return probability exponent is equal to $1/2$, i.e. where the inter-arrival law of the renewal process is …
We study the asymptotic behavior of a Markov chain on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ that corresponds to the two-dimensional marginals of a reinforcement process on $\mathbb{Z}^{\mathbb{N}}$. Three distinct asymptotic regimes are identified, depending on the scaling of the reinforcement parameter $Δ$ with respect to the number of steps performed by the chain.
We study the tail asymptotic of the stationary joint queue length distribution for a generalized Jackson network (GJN for short), assuming its stability. For the two station case, this problem has been recently solved in the logarithmic sense for the marginal stationary distributions under the setting that arrival processes and service times are of phase-type. In this paper, we study similar tail asymptotic problems on the stationary distribution, but problems and assumptions are different. First, the asymptotics are studied not only for the marginal distribution but also the stationary probab…
