We give conditions under which the normalized marginal distribution of a semimartingale converges to a Gaussian limit law as time tends to zero. In particular, our result is applicable to solutions of stochastic differential equations with locally bounded and continuous coefficients. The limit theorems are subsequently extended to functional central limit theorems on the process level. We present two applications of the results in the field of mathematical finance: to the pricing of at-the-money digital options with short maturities and short time implied volatility skews.
We provide a characterization of continuous semimartingales whose law is invariant with respect to predictable random rotations. In particular we prove that all such semimartingales are obtained by integrating a predictable process with respect to an independent $n$ dimensional Brownian motion.
We derive limit theorems for the empirical distribution function of "devolatilized" increments of an Itô semimartingale observed at high frequencies. These "devolatilized" increments are formed by suitably rescaling and truncating the raw increments to remove the effects of stochastic volatility and "large" jumps. We derive the limit of the empirical c.d.f. of the adjusted increments for any Itô semimartingale whose dominant component at high frequencies has activity index of $1<β\le2$, where $β=2$ corresponds to diffusion. We further derive an associated CLT in the jump-diffusion case. We use…
This paper gives a complete characterization of infinitely divisible semimartingales, i.e., semimartingales whose finite dimensional distributions are infinitely divisible. An explicit and essentially unique decomposition of such semimartingales is obtained. A new approach, combining series decompositions of infinitely divisible processes with detailed analysis of their jumps, is presented. As an ilustration of the main result, the semimartingale property is explicitely determined for a large class of stationary increment processes and several examples of processes of interest are considered. …
We consider a sequence $X^n=(X^n_t)_{t\ge 0},n\ge 1$ of semimartingales. Each $X^n$ is a weak solution to an Itô equation with respect to a Wiener process and a Poissonian martingale measure and is in general non-Markovian process. For this sequence, we prove the large deviation principle in the Skorokhod space $D=D_{[0,\infty)}$. We use a new approach based on of exponential tightness. This allows us to establish the large deviation principle under weaker assumptions than before.
We show that the sequential closure of a family of probability measures on the canonical space of c{à}dl{à}g paths satisfying Stricker's uniform tightness condition is a weak${}^*$ compact set of semimartingale measures in the pairing of the Riesz representation theorem under topological assumptions on the path space. Similar results are obtained for quasi- and supermartingales under analogous conditions. In particular, we give a full characterization of the strongest topology on the Skorokhod space for which these results are true.
Stricker's theorem states that a Gaussian process is a semimartingale in its natural filtration if and only if it is the sum of an independent increment Gaussian process and a Gaussian process of finite variation, see [1983, Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 64(3)]. We consider extensions of this result to non Gaussian infinitely divisible processes. First we show that the class of infinitely divisible semimartingales is so large that the natural analog of Stricker's theorem fails to hold. Then, as the main result, we prove that an infinitely divisible semimartingale relative to the filtration generat…
We derive equivalent conditions for the (local) absolute continuity of two laws of semimartingales on random sets. Our result generalizes previous results for classical semimartingales by replacing a strong uniqueness assumption by a weaker uniqueness assumption. The main tool is a generalized Girsanov's theorem, which relates laws of two possibly explosive semimartingales to a candidate density process. Its proof is based on an extension theorem for consistent families of probability measures. Moreover, we show that in a one-dimensional Itô-diffusion setting our result reproduces the known de…
This paper presents the asymptotic theory for nondegenerate $U$-statistics of high frequency observations of continuous Itô semimartingales. We prove uniform convergence in probability and show a functional stable central limit theorem for the standardized version of the $U$-statistic. The limiting process in the central limit theorem turns out to be conditionally Gaussian with mean zero. Finally, we indicate potential statistical applications of our probabilistic results.
We present an elementary treatment of the Optional Decomposition Theorem for continuous semimartingales and general filtrations. This treatment does not assume the existence of equivalent local martingale measure(s), only that of strictly positive local martingale deflator(s).
In this paper we examine the asymptotic theory for U-statistics and V-statistics of discontinuous Ito semimartingales that are observed at high frequency. For different types of kernel functions we show laws of large numbers and associated stable central limit theorems. In most of the cases the limiting process will be conditionally centered Gaussian. The structure of the kernel function determines whether the jump and/or the continuous part of the semimartingale contribute to the limit.
Using the balayage formula, we prove an inequality between the measures associated to local times of semimartingales. Our result extends the "comparison theorem of local times" of Ouknine $(1988)$, which is useful in the study of stochastic differential equations. The inequality presented in this paper covers the discontinuous case. Moreover, we study the pathwise uniqueness of some stochastic differential equations involving local time of unknown process.
The typical central limit theorems in high-frequency asymptotics for semimartingales are results on stable convergence to a mixed normal limit with an unknown conditional variance. Estimating this conditional variance usually is a hard task, in particular when the underlying process contains jumps. For this reason, several authors have recently discussed methods to automatically estimate the conditional variance, i.e. they build a consistent estimator from the original statistics, but computed at various different time scales. Their methods work in several situations, but are essentially restr…
This paper provides a new version of the condition of Di Nunno et al. (2003), Ankirchner and Imkeller (2005) and Biagini and \{O}ksendal (2005) ensuring the semimartingale property for a large class of continuous stochastic processes. Unlike our predecessors, we base our modeling framework on the concept of portfolio proportions which yields a short self-contained proof of the main theorem, as well as a counterexample, showing that analogues of our results do not hold in the discontinuous setting.
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of sums of functions of the increments of a given semimartingale, taken along a regular grid whose mesh goes to 0. The function of the $i$th increment may depend on the current time, and also on the past of the semimartingale before this time. We study the convergence in probability of two types of such sums, and we also give associated central limit theorems. This extends known results when the summands are a function depending only on the increments, and this is motivated mainly by statistical applications.
We give a simple and rather elementary proof of the celebrated Bichteler-Dellacherie-Mokobodzki Theorem, which states that a process S is a good integrator if and only if it is a semimartingale. As a corollary, we obtain a characterization of semimartingales along the lines of classical Riemann integrability.
In this paper, we consider a diffusion process with jumps whose drift and jump coefficient depend on an unknown parameter. We then give a self-contained proof of the local asymptotic mixed normality (LAMN) property when the process is observed continuously in a time interval $[0; T]$ as $T\to\infty$, and derive, as a consequence, the local asymptotic normality (LAN) property in the ergodic case. For this, we give a proof of a Girsanov's theorem and a Central Limit theorem for a pure jump martingale. Our results could be viewed as a consequence of the LAMN property for semimartingales proved by…
In the spirit of Marcus canonical stochastic differential equations, we study a similar notion of rough differential equations (RDEs), notably dropping the assumption of continuity prevalent in the rough path literature. A new metric is exhibited in which the solution map is a continuous function of the driving rough path and a so-called path function, which directly models the effect of the jump on the system. In a second part, we show that general multidimensional semimartingales admit canonically defined rough path lifts. An extension of Lépingle's BDG inequality to this setting is given, a…
This paper derives the asymptotic behavior of realized power variation of pure-jump Itô semimartingales as the sampling frequency within a fixed interval increases to infinity. We prove convergence in probability and an associated central limit theorem for the realized power variation as a function of its power. We apply the limit theorems to propose an efficient adaptive estimator for the activity of discretely-sampled Itô semimartingale over a fixed interval.
We establish general theorems quantifying the notion of recurrence --- through an estimation of the moments of passage times --- for irreducible continuous-time Markov chains on countably infinite state spaces. Sharp conditions of occurrence of the phenomenon of explosion are also obtained. A new phenomenon of implosion is introduced and sharp conditions for its occurrence are proven. The general results are illustrated by treating models having a difficult behaviour even in discrete time.
We extend the Itō formula \cite{MR1837298}*{Theorem 2.3} for semimartingales with rcll paths. We also comment on Local time process of such semimartingales. We apply the Itō formula to Lévy processes to obtain existence of solutions to certain classes of stochastic differential equations in the Hermite-Sobolev spaces.
This thesis consists of three parts. In the first part, we study $\mathbb{L}^p$ solutions of a large class of BSDEs. Existence, comparison theorem, uniqueness and a stability result are proved. In the second part, we establish the solvability of quadratic semimartingale BSDEs. In contrast to current literature, we use Lipschitz-quadratic regularization and obtain the existence and uniqueness results with minimal assumptions. The third part is a brief summary of quadratic semimartingales and the monotone stability result. This provides an alternative proof of monotone stability result for quadr…
In this paper we present the asymptotic analysis of the realised quadratic variation for multivariate symmetric $β$-stable Lévy processes, $β\in (0,2)$, and certain pure jump semimartingales. The main focus is on derivation of functional limit theorems for the realised quadratic variation and its spectrum. We will show that the limiting process is a matrix-valued $β$-stable Lévy process when the original process is symmetric $β$-stable, while the limit is conditionally $β$-stable in case of integrals with respect to symmetric $β$-stable motions. These asymptotic results are mostly related to t…
In this paper we provide an asymptotic analysis of generalised bipower measures of the variation of price processes in financial economics. These measures encompass the usual quadratic variation, power variation and bipower variations which have been highlighted in recent years in financial econometrics. The analysis is carried out under some rather general Brownian semimartingale assumptions, which allow for standard leverage effects.
This paper consists of two parts. In the first part we prove the fundamental theorem of asset pricing under short sales prohibitions in continuous-time financial models where asset prices are driven by nonnegative, locally bounded semimartingales. A key step in this proof is an extension of a well-known result of Ansel and Stricker. In the second part we study the hedging problem in these models and connect it to a properly defined property of "maximality" of contingent claims.
In this paper we introduce the \textit{multivariate} Brownian semistationary (BSS) processes and study the joint asymptotic behaviour of its realised covariation using in-fill asymptotics. First, we present a central limit theorem for general stationary multivariate Gaussian processes, which are not necessarily semimartingales. Then, we show weak laws of large numbers, central limit theorems and feasible results for BSS processes. An explicit example based on the so-called gamma kernels is also provided.
A peculiar feature of Itô's calculus is that it is an integral calculus that gives no explicit derivative with a systematic differentiation theory counterpart, as in elementary calculus. So, can we define a pathwise stochastic derivative of semimartingales with respect to Brownian motion that leads to a differentiation theory counterpart to Itô's integral calculus? From Itô's definition of his integral, such a derivative must be based on the quadratic covariation process. We give such a derivative in this note and we show that it leads to a fundamental theorem of stochastic calculus, a general…
This article presents a weak law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the scaled realised covariation of a bivariate Brownian semistationary process. The novelty of our results lies in the fact that we derive the suitable asymptotic theory both in a multivariate setting and outside the classical semimartingale framework. The proofs rely heavily on recent developments in Malliavin calculus.
Detecting Stochasticity in Discrete Signals via Nonparametric Excursion Theorem
Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学机械工程系）；Dept. of Computational Mathematics, Science and Engineering, Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学计算数学、科学与工程系）
The approximation of integral type functionals is studied for discrete observations of a continuous Itô semimartingale. Based on novel approximations in the Fourier domain, central limit theorems are proved for $L^2$-Sobolev functions with fractional smoothness. An explicit $L^2$-lower bound shows that already lower order quadrature rules, such as the trapezoidal rule and the classical Riemann estimator, are rate optimal, but only the trapezoidal rule is efficient, achieving the minimal asymptotic variance.
Let $(Ω, \mathcal{F}, (\mathcal{F})_{t\ge 0}, P)$ be a complete stochastic basis, $X$ a semimartingale with predictable compensator $(B, C, ν)$. Consider a family of probability measures $\mathbf{P}=( {P}^{n, ψ}, ψ\in Ψ, n\ge 1)$, where $Ψ$ is an index set, $ {P}^{n, ψ}\stackrel {loc} \ll{P}$, and denote the likelihood ratio process by $Z_t^{n, ψ} =\frac{dP^{n, ψ}|_{\mathcal{F}_t}}{d P|_{\mathcal{F}_t}}$. Under some regularity conditions in terms of logarithm entropy and Hellinger processes, we prove that $\log Z_t^{n}$ converges weakly to a Gaussian process in $\ell^\infty(Ψ)$ as $n\rightarro…
We proof a limit theorem for moments in space of the increments of Brownian local time. As special cases for the second and third moments, previous results by Chen et al. (Ann. Prob. 38, 2010, no. 1) and Rosen (Stoch. Dyn. 11, 2011, no. 1), which were later reproven by Hu and Nualart (Electron. Commun. Probab. 14, 2009; Electron. Commun. Probab. 15, 2010) and Rosen (Séminaire de Probabilités XLIII, Springer, 2011) are included. Furthermore, a conjecture of Rosen for the fourth moment is settled. In comparison to the previous methods of proof, we follow a fundamentally different approach by exc…
We study the effect of investor inertia on stock price fluctuations with a market microstructure model comprising many small investors who are inactive most of the time. It turns out that semi-Markov processes are tailor made for modelling inert investors. With a suitable scaling, we show that when the price is driven by the market imbalance, the log price process is approximated by a process with long range dependence and non-Gaussian returns distributions, driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Consequently, investor inertia may lead to arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated market parti…
This paper develops mixed-normal approximations for probabilities that vectors of multiple Skorohod integrals belong to random convex polytopes when the dimensions of the vectors possibly diverge to infinity. We apply the developed theory to establish the asymptotic mixed normality of the realized covariance matrix of a high-dimensional continuous semimartingale observed at a high-frequency, where the dimension can be much larger than the sample size. We also present an application of this result to testing the residual sparsity of a high-dimensional continuous-time factor model.
Motivated by entropic optimal transport, we investigate an extended notion of solution to the parabolic equation $( \partial_t + b\cdot \nabla + Δ_{ a}/2 +V)g =0$ with a final boundary condition. It is well-known that the viscosity solution $g$ of this PDE is represented by the Feynman-Kac formula when the drift $b$, the diffusion matrix $a$ and the scalar potential $V$ are regular enough and not growing too fast. In this article, $b$ and $V$ are not assumed to be regular and their growth is controlled by a finite entropy condition, allowing for instance $V$ to belong to some Kato class. We sh…
We give an infinitesimal meaning to the symbol $dX_t$ for a continuous semimartingale $X$ at an instant in time $t$. We define a vector space structure on the space of differentials at time $t$ and deduce key properties consistent with the classical Itô integration theory. In particular, we link our notion of a differential with Itô integration via a stochastic version of the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. Our differentials obey a version of the chain rule, which is a local version of Itô's lemma. We apply our results to financial mathematics to give a theory of portfolios at an instant in t…
We consider three magnetic relativistic Schrödinger operators which correspond to the same classical symbol $\sqrt{(ξ-A(x))^2+m^2}+V(x)$ and whose heat semigroups admit the Feynman-Kac-Itô type path integral representation $E[e^{-S^m(x,t, X)}g(x+X(t))]$. Using these representations, we prove the convergence of these heat semigroups when the mass--parameter $m$ goes to zero. Its proof reduces to the convergence of $e^{-S^m(x,t;X)}$, which yields a limit theorem for exponentials of semimartingales as functionals of Lévy processes $X$.
In this paper, we give the central limit theorem and almost sure central limit theorem for products of some partial sums of independent identically distributed random variables.
The de Moivre-Laplace theorem is a special case of the central limit theorem for Bernoulli random variables, and can be proved by direct computation. We deduce the central limit theorem for any random variable with finite variance from the de Moivre-Laplace theorem. Our proof does not use advanced notions such as characteristic functions, the Brownian motion, or stopping times.
This paper aims to establish a central limit theorem for Markov processes conditioned not to be absorbed under a very general assumption on quasi-stationarity for the underlying process. To do so, a central limit theorem has been established for ergodic Markov processes. The conditional central limit theorem is then obtained by applying the central limit theorem to the $Q$-process.
The central limit theorem of martingales is the fundamental tool for studying the convergence of stochastic processes. The central limit theorem and functional central limit theorem are obtained for martingale like random variables under the sub-linear expectation by Zhang (2019). In this paper, we consider the multi-dimensional martingale like random vectors and establish a functional central limit theorem. As applications, the Lindeberg central limit theorem for independent random vectors is established, and the sufficient and necessary conditions of the central limit theorem for independent…
We establish central limit theorems for general functionals on binomial point processes and their Poissonized version. As an application, a central limit theorem for Betti numbers of random geometric complexes in the thermodynamic regime is derived.
Obliquely reflecting Brownian motion in nonpolyhedral, piecewise smooth cones, with an example of application to diffusion approximation of bandwidth sharing queues
Recently a new type of central limit theorem for belief functions was given in Epstein et al. [9]. In this paper, we generalize the central limit theorem in Epstein et al. [9] to accommodate general bounded random variables. These results are natural extension of the classical central limit theory for additive probability measures.
In this paper, we establish a spatial central limit theorem for a large class of supercritical branching, not necessarily symmetric, Markov processes with spatially dependent branching mechanisms satisfying a second moment condition. This central limit theorem generalizes and unifies all the central limit theorems obtained recently in \cite{RSZ2} for supercritical branching symmetric Markov processes. To prove our central limit theorem, we have to carefully develop the spectral theory of nonsymmetric strongly continuous semigroups which should be of independent interest.
We derive new bounds of the remainder in a combinatorial central limit theorem without assumptions on independence and existence of moments of summands. For independent random variables our theorems imply Esseen and Berry-Esseen type inequalities, some other new bounds and a combinatorial central limit theorem in the case of infinite variations.
In this paper we establish spatial central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes with general spatial-dependent branching mechanisms. These are generalizations of the spatial central limit theorems proved in [1], P. for branching OU processes with binary branching mechanisms. Compared with the results of [1], our central limit theorems are more satisfactory in the sense that the normal random variables in our theorems are non-degenerate.
Here we establish the central limit theorem for a class of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) and as an application derive this theorem for two widely studied population models known as super-Brownian motion and Fleming-Viot process.
