Despite the increasing diffusion of the Internet technology, TV remains the principal medium of communication. People's perceptions, knowledge, beliefs and opinions about matter of facts get (in)formed through the information reported on by the mass-media. However, a single source of information (and consensus) could be a potential cause of anomalies in the structure and evolution of a society. Hence, as the information available (and the way it is reported) is fundamental for our perceptions and opinions, the definition of conditions allowing for a good information to be disseminated is a pressing challenge. In this paper starting from a report on the last Italian political campaign in 2008, we derive a socio-cognitive computational model of opinion dynamics where agents get informed by different sources of information. Then, a what-if analysis, performed trough simulations on the model's parameters space, is shown. In particular, the scenario implemented includes three main streams of information acquisition, differing in both the contents and the perceived reliability of the messages spread. Agents' internal opinion is updated either by accessing one of the information sources, namely media and experts, or by exchanging information with one another. They are also endowed with cognitive mechanisms to accept, reject or partially consider the acquired information.
The information system (T.V., newspapers, blogs, social network platforms) and its inner dynamics play a fundamental role on the evolution of collective debates and thus on the public opinion. In this work we address such a process focusing on how the current inner strategies of the information system (competition, customer satisfaction) once combined with the gossip may affect the opinions dynamics. A reinforcement effect is particularly evident in the social network platforms where several and incompatible cultures coexist (e.g, pro or against the existence of chemical trails and reptilians,…
The goal of opinion maximization is to maximize the positive view towards a product, an ideology or any entity among the individuals in social networks. So far, opinion maximization is mainly studied as finding a set of influential nodes for fast content dissemination in a social network. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to solve the problem, where opinion maximization is achieved through efficient information spreading. In our model, multiple sources inject information continuously into the network, while the regular nodes with heterogeneous social learning abilities spread the info…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reminded us how vaccination can be a divisive topic on which the public conversation is permeated by misleading claims, and thoughts tend to polarize, especially on online social networks. In this work, motivated by recent natural language processing techniques to systematically extract and quantify opinions from text messages, we present a differential framework for bivariate opinion formation dynamics that is coupled with a compartmental model for fake news dissemination. Thanks to a mean-field analysis we demonstrate that the resulting Fokker-Planck system permits to…
Social media has become an emerging alternative to opinion polls for public opinion collection, while it is still posing many challenges as a passive data source, such as structurelessness, quantifiability, and representativeness. Social media data with geotags provide new opportunities to unveil the geographic locations of users expressing their opinions. This paper aims to answer two questions: 1) whether quantifiable measurement of public opinion can be obtained from social media and 2) whether it can produce better or complementary measures compared to opinion polls. This research proposes…
We introduce and discuss kinetic models of opinion formation on social networks in which the distribution function depends on both the opinion and the connectivity of the agents. The opinion formation model is subsequently coupled with a kinetic model describing the spreading of popularity of a product on the web through a social network. Numerical experiments on the underlying kinetic models show a good qualitative agreement with some measured trends of hashtags on social media websites and illustrate how companies can take advantage of the network structure to obtain at best the advertisemen…
In this paper, the influence of the social media on the opinion formation process is modeled during an election campaign. In the proposed model, peer- to-peer interactions and targeted online propaganda messages are assumed to be the driving forces of the opinion formation dynamics. The conviction power of the targeted messages is based on the collected and processed private information. In this work, the model is based on an artificial society, initially evenly divided between two parties. The bounded confidence model governs peer-to-peer interactions with a value of confidence parameter whic…
Pre-Construction of Opinion Dynamics Considering Structural Inequality: Interdisciplinary Analysis of Complex Social Stratification, Media Influence, and Functionalism
Passive consumption of a quantifiable amount of social media information related to a topic can cause individuals to form opinions. If a substantial amount of these individuals are motivated to take action from their recently established opinions, a movement or public opinion shift can be induced independent of the information's veracity. Given that social media is ubiquitous in modern society, it is imperative that we understand the threshold at which social media data results in opinion formation. The present study estimates population opinion formation thresholds by querying 2222 participan…
Understanding the emergence of strong controversial issues in modern societies is a key issue in opinion studies. A commonly diffused idea is the fact that the increasing of homophily in social networks, due to the modern ICT, can be a driving force for opinion polariation. In this paper we address the problem with a modelling approach following three basic steps. We first introduce a network morphogenesis model to reconstruct network structures where homophily can be tuned with a parameter. We show that as homophily increases the emergence of marked topological community structures in the net…
Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allow…
Online social media such as Twitter are widely used for mining public opinions and sentiments on various issues and topics. The sheer volume of the data generated and the eager adoption by the online-savvy public are helping to raise the profile of online media as a convenient source of news and public opinions on social and political issues as well. Due to the uncontrollable biases in the population who heavily use the media, however, it is often difficult to measure how accurately the online sphere reflects the offline world at large, undermining the usefulness of online media. One way of id…
A key question of collective social behavior is related to the influence of Mass Media on public opinion. Different approaches have been developed to address quantitatively this issue, ranging from field experiments to mathematical models. In this work we propose a combination of tools involving natural language processing and time series analysis. We compare selected features of mass media news articles with measurable manifestation of public opinion. We apply our analysis to news articles belonging to the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. We compare variations in polls (as a proxy of public o…
In this work we consider the influence of mass media in the dynamics of the two-dimensional Sznajd model. This influence acts as an external field, and it is introduced in the model by means of a probability $p$ of the agents to follow the media opinion. We performed Monte Carlo simulations on square lattices with different sizes, and our numerical results suggest a change on the critical behavior of the model, with the absence of the usual phase transition for $p>\sim 0.18$. Another effect of the probability $p$ is to decrease the average relaxation times $τ$, that are log-normally distribute…
Stance detection, which aims to determine whether an individual is for or against a target concept, promises to uncover public opinion from large streams of social media data. Yet even human annotation of social media content does not always capture "stance" as measured by public opinion polls. We demonstrate this by directly comparing an individual's self-reported stance to the stance inferred from their social media data. Leveraging a longitudinal public opinion survey with respondent Twitter handles, we conducted this comparison for 1,129 individuals across four salient targets. We find tha…
Trends in online social media always reflect the collective attention of a vast number of individuals across the network. For example, Internet slang words can be ubiquitous because of social memes and online contagions in an extremely short period. From Weibo, a Twitter-like service in China, we find that the adoption of popular Internet slang words experiences two peaks in its temporal evolution, in which the former is relatively much lower than the latter. This interesting phenomenon in fact provides a decent window to disclose essential factors that drive the massive diffusion underlying t…
Nowadays, internet has changed the world into a global village. Social Media has reduced the gaps among the individuals. Previously communication was a time consuming and expensive task between the people. Social Media has earned fame because it is a cheaper and faster communication provider. Besides, social media has allowed us to reduce the gaps of physical distance, it also generates and preserves huge amount of data. The data are very valuable and it presents association degree between people and their opinions. The comprehensive analysis of the methods which are used on user behavior pred…
The automatic content analysis of mass media in the social sciences has become necessary and possible with the raise of social media and computational power. One particularly promising avenue of research concerns the use of opinion mining. We design and implement the POPmine system which is able to collect texts from web-based conventional media (news items in mainstream media sites) and social media (blogs and Twitter) and to process those texts, recognizing topics and political actors, analyzing relevant linguistic units, and generating indicators of both frequency of mention and polarity (p…
Individuals modify their opinions towards a topic based on their social interactions. Opinion evolution models conceptualize the change of opinion as a uni-dimensional continuum, and the effect of influence is built by the group size, the network structures, or the relations among opinions within the group. However, how to model the personal opinion evolution process under the effect of the online social influence as a function remains unclear. Here, we show that the uni-dimensional continuous user opinions can be represented by compressed high-dimensional word embeddings, and its evolution ca…
The current development of vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 is unprecedented. Little is known, however, about the nuanced public opinions on the vaccines on social media. We adopt a human-guided machine learning framework using more than six million tweets from almost two million unique Twitter users to capture public opinions on the potential vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, classifying them into three groups: pro-vaccine, vaccine-hesitant, and anti-vaccine. We aggregate opinions at the state and country levels, and find that the major changes in the percentages of different opinion groups roughly correspond …
A community of agents is subject to a stream of messages, which are represented as points on a plane of issues. Messages are sent by media and by agents themselves. Messages from media shape the public opinion. They are unbiased, i.e. positive and negative opinions on a given issue appear with equal frequencies. In our previous work, the only criterion to receive a message by an agent is if the distance between this message and the ones received earlier does not exceed the given value of the tolerance parameter. Here we introduce a possibility to address a message to a given neighbour. We show…
The pervasive use of social media has grown to over two billion users to date, and is commonly utilized as a means to share information and shape world events. Evidence suggests that passive social media usage (i.e., viewing without taking action) has an impact on the user's perspective. This empirical influence over perspective could have significant impact on social events. Therefore, it is important to understand how social media contributes to the formation of an individual's perspective. A set of experimental tasks were designed to investigate empirically derived thresholds for opinion fo…
We consider a discrete opinion formation problem in a setting where agents are influenced by both information diffused by their social relations and from recommendations received directly from the social media manager. We study how the "strength" of the influence of the social media and the homophily ratio affect the probability of the agents of reaching a consensus and how these factors can determine the type of consensus reached. In a simple 2-symmetric block model we prove that agents converge either to a consensus or to a persistent disagreement. In particular, we show that when the homoph…
Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite its importance, there has been no conclusive scientific evidence so far that social media activity can capture the opinion of the general population. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users regarding the candidates of the 2016 US Presidential Election by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to develop an in-domain training set approaching 1 million tweets. We investigate …
University of South Carolina（南卡罗来纳大学）；Auburn University at Montgomery（奥本大学蒙哥马利分校）
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding elections. Social media has provided a platform for collecting a large amount of social media data. This paper proposes a computational public opinion mining approach to explore the discussion of economic issues in social media during an election. Current related studies use text…
The formation of collective opinion is a complex phenomenon that results from the combined effects of mass media exposure and social influence between individuals. The present work introduces a model of opinion formation specifically designed to address risk judgments, such as attitudes towards climate change, terrorist threats, or children vaccination. The model assumes that people collect risk information from the media environment and exchange them locally with other individuals. Even though individuals are initially exposed to the same sample of information, the model predicts the emergenc…
Online reviews are potent sources for industry owners and buyers, however opportunistic people may try to destruct or promote their desired product by publishing fake comments named spam opinion. So far, many models have been developed to detect spam opinions, but none have addressed the issue of spam attack. It is a way a smart spammer can deceive the system in a manner in which he can continue generating spams without the fear of being detected and blocked by the system. In this paper, the spam attacks are discussed. Moreover, a robust graph-based spam detection method is proposed. The metho…
The dissemination of information and the development of public opinion are essential elements of most social media platforms and are often described as distinct, man-made occurrences. However, what is often disregarded is the interdependence between these two phenomena. Information dissemination serves as the foundation for the formation of public opinion, while public opinion, in turn, drives the spread of information. In our study, we model the co-evolutionary relationship between information and public opinion on heterogeneous multiplex networks. This model takes into account a minority of …
Mapping the political landscape from data traces: multidimensional opinions of users, politicians and media outlets on X
Sciences Po médialab（政治学院媒体实验室）；Complex Systems Institute of Paris Ile-de-France CNRS（巴黎法兰西岛复杂系统研究所）；Learning Planet Institute, Learning Transitions Unit, CY Cergy Paris University（学习星球学院学习转型单元塞吉-巴黎大学）；Sorbonne Université, CNRS, LIP6（索邦大学）；Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences（马克斯·普朗克科学数学研究所）；Laboratoire Lattice, École Normale Supérieure - PSL - CNRS - Univ. Sorbonne Nouvelle（晶格实验室巴黎高等师范学院）；École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales（社会科学高等学院）
Tarbiat Modares University（塔比亚特·莫达雷斯大学）；The Technical University of Berlin（柏林工业大学）；The University of Queensland（昆士兰大学）；University of Vienna（维也纳大学）；Boston University（波士顿大学）
Fast proliferation of robots in people's everyday lives during recent years calls for a profound examination of public consensus, which is the ultimate determinant of the future of this industry. This paper investigates text corpora, consisting of posts in Twitter, Google News, Bing News, and Kickstarter, over an 8 year period to quantify the public and media opinion about this emerging technology. Results demonstrate that the news platforms and the public take an overall positive position on robots. However, there is a deviation between news coverage and people's attitude. Among various robot…
Since the information available is fundamental for our perceptions and opinions, we are interested in understanding the conditions allowing for a good information to be disseminated. This paper explores opinion dynamics by means of multi-agent based simulations when agents get informed by different sources of information. The scenario implemented includes three main streams of information acquisition, differing in both the contents and the perceived reliability of the messages spread. Agents' internal opinion is updated either by accessing one of the information sources, namely media and exper…
In recent years, the ease with which social media can be accessed has led to the unexpected problem of a shrinkage in information sources. This phenomenon is caused by a system that facilitates the connection of people with similar ideas and recommendation systems. Bias in the selection of information sources promotes polarization that divides people into multiple groups with opposing views and creates conflicts between opposing groups. This paper elucidates the mechanism of polarization by proposing a model of opinion formation in social media that considers users' reactions of empathy and re…
The democratization of AI tools for content generation, combined with unrestricted access to mass media for all (e.g. through microblogging and social media), makes it increasingly hard for people to distinguish fact from fiction. This raises the question of how individual opinions evolve in such a networked environment without grounding in a known reality. The dominant approach to studying this problem uses simple models from the social sciences on how individuals change their opinions when exposed to their social neighborhood, and applies them on large social networks. We propose a novel mod…
As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical…
Since March 2020, companies nationwide have started work from home (WFH) due to the rapid increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an attempt to help prevent the coronavirus from spreading and rescue the economy from the pandemic. Many organizations have conducted surveys to understand people's opinions towards WFH. However, the findings are limited due to small sample size and the dynamic topics over time. This study aims to understand the U.S. public opinions on working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conduct a large-scale social media study using Twitter data to portrait different…
The flow of information reaching us via the online media platforms is optimized not by the information content or relevance but by popularity and proximity to the target. This is typically performed in order to maximise platform usage. As a side effect, this introduces an algorithmic bias that is believed to enhance polarization of the societal debate. To study this phenomenon, we modify the well-known continuous opinion dynamics model of bounded confidence in order to account for the algorithmic bias and investigate its consequences. In the simplest version of the original model the pairs of …
The automatic content analysis of mass media in the social sciences has become necessary and possible with the raise of social media and computational power. One particularly promising avenue of research concerns the use of sentiment analysis in microblog streams. However, one of the main challenges consists in aggregating sentiment polarity in a timely fashion that can be fed to the prediction method. We investigated a large set of sentiment aggregate functions and performed a regression analysis using political opinion polls as gold standard. Our dataset contains nearly 233 000 tweets, class…
Web 2.0 helps to expand the range and depth of conversation on many issues and facilitates the formation of online communities. Online communities draw various individuals together based on their common opinions on a core set of issues. Most existing community detection methods merely focus on discovering communities without providing any insight regarding the collective opinions of community members and the motives behind the formation of communities. Several efforts have been made to tackle this problem by presenting a set of keywords as a community profile. However, they neglect the positio…
Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is used to prevent or treat malaria caused by mosquito bites. Recently, the drug has been suggested to treat COVID-19, but that has not been supported by scientific evidence. The information regarding the drug efficacy has flooded social networks, posting potential threats to the community by perverting their perceptions of the drug efficacy. This paper studies the reactions of social network users on the recommendation of using HCQ for COVID-19 treatment by analyzing the reaction patterns and sentiment of the tweets. We collected 164,016 tweets from February to Decemb…
Earthquakes have a deep impact on wide areas, and emergency rescue operations may benefit from social media information about the scope and extent of the disaster. Therefore, this work presents a text miningbased approach to collect and analyze social media data for early earthquake impact analysis. First, disasterrelated microblogs are collected from the Sina microblog based on crawler technology. Then, after data cleaning a series of analyses are conducted including (1) the hot words analysis, (2) the trend of the number of microblogs, (3) the trend of public opinion sentiment, and (4) a key…
Media outlets and political campaigners recognise social media as a means for widely disseminating news and opinions. In particular, Twitter is used by political groups all over the world to spread political messages, engage their supporters, drive election campaigns, and challenge their critics. Further, news agencies, many of which aim to give an impression of balance, are often of a particular political persuasion which is reflected in the content they produce. Driven by the potential for political and media organisations to influence public opinion, our aim is to quantify the nature of pol…
