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arXiv 1101.2899math.DSmath.CAnlin.CDnlin.PS
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临界转变的数学框架:分叉,快慢系统和随机动力学

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: bifurcations, fast-slow systems and stochastic dynamics

Christian Kuehn

摘要:

分岔可以导致具有慢变参数的动力系统过渡到远离吸引子。"关键过渡“或"临界点”等术语被用来描述这种情况。在从生态系统和气候变化到医药和金融的各种各样的应用中,已经观察到了关键的转变。本文的主要目的是给出一个概述,标准的数学理论可以应用于临界过渡。我们将集中讨论那些被建议用来预测临界转变的早期预警信号,并指出数学理论在这方面可以提供什么。从经典的分歧理论出发,结合多个时间尺度动力学,可以详细分析引起临界转变的局部分岔。我们认为,快-慢系统的数学理论提供了一个自然的定义的关键转变。由于噪声往往在临界转变附近起着至关重要的作用,下一步是考虑随机快-慢系统。样本路径技术,偏微分方程和随机动力系统之间的相互作用突出。每一个观点都为关键的转变提供了潜在的预警信号。由于不断增加的方差已被建议作为一个预警信号,我们检查它的正常形式的背景下,分析,数值和几何,我们也考虑自相关数值。因此,我们证明了通用模型的预警信号的适用性。最后,我们对未来的理论方向的建议。

英文摘要:

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been observed in an astonishingly diverse set of applications from ecosystems and climate change to medicine and finance. The main goal of this paper is to give an overview which standard mathematical theories can be applied to critical transitions. We shall focus on early-warning signs that have been suggested to predict critical transitions and point out what mathematical theory can provide in this context. Starting from classical bifurcation theory and incorporating multiple time scale dynamics one can give a detailed analysis of local bifurcations that induce critical transitions. We suggest that the mathematical theory of fast-slow systems provides a natural definition of critical transitions. Since noise often plays a crucial role near critical transitions the next step is to consider stochastic fast-slow systems. The interplay between sample path techniques, partial differential equations and random dynamical systems is highlighted. Each viewpoint provides potential early-warning signs for critical transitions. Since increasing variance has been suggested as an early-warning sign we examine it in the context of normal forms analytically, numerically and geometrically; we also consider autocorrelation numerically. Hence we demonstrate the applicability of early-warning signs for generic models. We end with suggestions for future directions of the theory.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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