For equidistant discretizations of fractional Brownian motion (fBm), the probabilities of ordinal patterns of order d=2 are monotonically related to the Hurst parameter H. By plugging the sample relative frequency of those patterns indicating changes between up and down into the monotonic relation to H, one obtains the Zero Crossing (ZC) estimator of the Hurst parameter which has found considerable attention in mathematical and applied research.
In this paper, we generally discuss the estimation of ordinal pattern probabilities in fBm. As it turns out, according to the sufficiency principle, for ordinal patterns of order d=2 any reasonable estimator is an affine functional of the sample relative frequency of changes. We establish strong consistency of the estimators and show them to be asymptotically normal for H<3/4. Further, we derive confidence intervals for the Hurst parameter. Simulation studies show that the ZC estimator has larger variance but less bias than the HEAF estimator of the Hurst parameter.
This article proposes a powerful scheme to monitor a large number of categorical data streams with heterogeneous parameters or nature. The data streams considered may be either nominal with a number of attribute levels or ordinal with some natural order among their attribute levels, such as good, marginal, and bad. For an ordinal data stream, it is assumed that there is a corresponding latent continuous data stream determining it. Furthermore, different data streams may have different number of attribute levels and different values of level probabilities. Due to high dimensionality, traditiona…
We analyze the ordinal structure of long-range dependent time series. To this end, we use so called ordinal patterns which describe the relative position of consecutive data points. We provide two estimators for the probabilities of ordinal patterns and prove limit theorems in different settings, namely stationarity and (less restrictive) stationary increments. In the second setting, we encounter a Rosenblatt distribution in the limit. We prove more general limit theorems for functions with Hermite rank 1 and 2. We derive the limit distribution for an estimation of the Hurst parameter $H$ if i…
We present results on the estimation and evaluation of success probabilities for ordinal optimisation over uncountable sets (such as subsets of $\mathbb{R}^{d}$). Our formulation invokes an assumption of a Gaussian copula model, and we show that the success probability can be equivalently computed by assuming a special case of additive noise. We formally prove a lower bound on the success probability under the Gaussian copula model, and numerical experiments demonstrate that the lower bound yields a reasonable approximation to the actual success probability. Lastly, we showcase the utility of …
In this paper we investigate the boundary non-crossing probabilities of a fractional Brownian motion considering some general deterministic trend function. We derive bounds for non-crossing probabilities and discuss the case of a large trend function. As a by-product we solve a minimization problem related to the norm of the trend function.
We obtain new upper tail probabilities of $m$-times integrated Brownian motions under the uniform norm and the $L^p$ norm. For the uniform norm, Talagrand's approach is used, while for the $L^p$ norm, Zolotare's approach together with suitable metric entropy and the associated small ball probabilities are used. This proposed method leads to an interesting and concrete connection between small ball probabilities and upper tail probabilities (large ball probabilities) for general Gaussian random variable in Banach spaces. As applications, explicit bounds are given for the largest eigenvalue of t…
We derive explicit formulas for probabilities of Brownian motion with jumps crossing linear or piecewise linear boundaries in any finite interval. We then use these formulas to approximate the boundary crossing probabilities for general nonlinear boundaries. The jump process can be any integer-valued process and jump sizes can have general distributions. Moreover, the jump sizes can be even correlated and/or non-identically distributed. The numerical algorithm is straightforward and easy to implement. Some numerical examples are presented.
We show that the uniform norm of generalized grey Brownian motion over the unit interval has an analytic density, excluding the special case of fractional Brownian motion. Our main result is an asymptotic expansion for the small ball probability of generalized grey Brownian motion, which extends to other norms on path space. The decay rate is not exponential but polynomial, of degree two. For the uniform norm and the Hölder norm, we also prove a large deviations estimate.
We derive asymptotics for the quenched probability that a critical branching Brownian motion killed at a small rate in Poissonian obstacles exits a large domain. Results are formulated in terms of the solution to a semilinear partial differential equation with singular boundary conditions. The proofs depend on a quenched homogenization theorem for branching Brownian motion among mild obstacles.
The problem is a log-asymptotics of the probability that the Integrated fractional Brownian motion of index 0<H<1 does not exceed a fixed level during long time. For the growing time interval (0,T) the hypothetical log-asymptotics is (H(H-1)+o(1))Log T. In support of the hypothesis, we update our earlier estimates of the probability and give analytical proofs.
For each prime $p$, a diffusion constant together with a positive exponent specify a Vladimirov operator and an associated $p$-adic diffusion equation. The fundamental solution of this pseudo-differential equation gives rise to a measure on the Skorokhod space of $p$-adic valued paths that is concentrated on the paths originating at the origin. We calculate the first exit probabilities of paths from balls and estimate these probabilities for the brownian bridges.
Motivated by an approximation problem from mathematical finance, we analyse the stability of the boundary crossing probability for the multivariate Brownian motion process, with respect to small changes of the boundary. Under broad assumptions on the nature of the boundary, including the Lipschitz condition (in a Hausdorff-type metric) on its time cross-sections, we obtain an analogue of the Borovkov and Novikov (2005) upper bound for the difference between boundary hitting probabilities for "close boundaries" in the univariate case. We also obtained upper bounds for the first boundary crossin…
Let $B^{H}$ be a $d$-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H\in(0,1)$, $f:[0,1]\longrightarrow\mathbb{R}^{d}$ a Borel function, and $E\subset[0,1]$, $F\subset\mathbb{R}^{d}$ are given Borel sets. The focus of this paper is on hitting probabilities of the fractional Brownian motion $B^{H}$ with the deterministic drift $f$. It aims to highlight the role of the regularity properties of the drift $f$ as well as that of the dimension of $E$ in determining the upper and lower bounds of $\mathbb{P}\{(B^H+f)(E)\cap F\neq \emptyset \}$ for $F$ a subset of $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ and also fo…
We analyze here different forms of fractional relaxation equations of order ν\in(0,1) and we derive their solutions both in analytical and in probabilistic forms. In particular we show that these solutions can be expressed as crossing probabilities of random boundaries by various types of stochastic processes, which are all related to the Brownian motion B. In the special case ν=1/2, the fractional relaxation is proved to coincide with Pr{sup_{0\leqs\leqt} B(s)<U}, for an exponential boundary U. When we generalize the distributions of the random boundary, passing from the exponential to the Ga…
We obtain sharp asymptotic estimates for hitting probabilities of a critical branching Brownian motion in one dimension with killing at 0 We also obtain sharp asymptotic formulas for the tail probabilities of the number of particles killed at 0. In the special case of double-or-nothing branching, we give exact formulas for both the hitting probabilities, in terms of elliptic functions, and the distribution of the number of killed particles.
This paper investigates ruin probabilities for a two-dimensional fractional Brownian risk model with a proportional reinsurance scheme. We focus on joint and simultaneous ruin probabilities in a finite-time horizon. The risk processes of both insurance and reinsurance companies are composed of a large number of i.i.d. sub-risk processes, representing independent businesses. We derive the asymptotics as the initial capital tends to infinity.
We consider a stochastic flow $ϕ_t(x,ω)$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$ with initial point $ϕ_0(x,ω)=x$, driven by a single $n$-dimensional Brownian motion, and with an outward radial drift of magnitude $\frac{ F(\|ϕ_t(x)\|)}{\|ϕ_t(x)\|}$, with $F$ nonnegative, bounded and Lipschitz. We consider initial points $x$ lying in a set of positive distance from the origin. We show that there exist constants $C^*,c^*>0$ not depending on $n$, such that if $F>C^*n$ then the image of the initial set under the flow has probability 0 of hitting the origin. If $0\leq F \leq c^*n^{3/4}$, and if the initial set has nonemp…
We analyze the classical Brownian risk models discussing the approximation of ruin probabilities (classical, γ-reflected, Parisian and cumulative Parisian) for the case that ruin can occur only on specific discrete grids. A practical and natural grid of points is for instance G(1) = {0,1,2,...}, which allows us to study the probability of the ruin on the first day, second day, and so one. For such a discrete setting, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probabilities mentioned above. In this contribution we derive accurate approximations of ruin probabilities for uniform grids by lettin…
We investigate the optimal Hölder continuity and hitting probabilities for systems of stochastic heat equations and stochastic wave equations driven by an additive fractional Brownian sheet with temporal index $1/2$ and spatial index $H\le1/2$. Using stochastic calculus for fractional Brownian motion, we prove that these systems are well-posed and the solutions are Hölder continuous. Furthermore, the optimal Hölder exponents are obtained, which is the first result, as far as we knew, on the optimal Hölder continuity of SHEs and SWEs driven by fractional Brownian sheet that is rough in space. B…
We study the persistence probability for some two-sided discrete-time Gaussian sequences that are discrete-time analogs of fractional Brownian motion and integrated fractional Brownian motion, respectively. Our results extend the corresponding ones in continuous-time in [Molchan, Commun. Math. Phys., 1999] and [Molchen, J. Stat. Phys., 2017] to a wide class of discrete-time processes.
The fundamental solution of a pseudo-differential equation for functions defined on the $d$-fold product of the $p$-adic numbers, $\mathbb{Q}_p$, induces an analogue of the Wiener process in $\mathbb{Q}_p^d$. As in the real setting, the components are $1$-dimensional $p$-adic Brownian motions with the same diffusion constant and exponent as the original process. Asymptotic analysis of the conditional probabilities shows that the vector components are dependent for all time. Exit time probabilities for the higher dimensional processes reveal a concrete effect of the component dependency.
By the Cameron--Martin theorem, if a function $f$ is in the Dirichlet space $D$, then $B+f$ has the same a.s. properties as standard Brownian motion, $B$. In this paper we examine properties of $B+f$ when $f \notin D$. We start by establishing a general 0-1 law, which in particular implies that for any fixed $f$, the Hausdorff dimension of the image and the graph of $B+f$ are constants a.s. (This 0-1 law applies to any Lévy process.) Then we show that if the function $f$ is Hölder$(1/2)$, then $B+f$ is intersection equivalent to $B$. Moreover, $B+f$ has double points a.s. in dimensions $d\le 3…
In this paper we present results of numerical simulation based on Prequantum Classical Statistical Field Theory (PCSFT), a model with hidden variables of the field-type reproducing probabilistic predictions of quantum mechanics (QM). PCSFT is combined with measurement theory based on detectors of the threshold type. The latter describes discrete events corresponding to the continuous fields model, PCSFT. Numerical modeling demonstrated that the classical Brownian motion (the Wiener process valued in complex Hilbert space) producing clicks when approaching the detection threshold gives probabil…
Generalized intersection exponents and local cut points for three-dimensional Brownian loop soup
Institute for Theoretical Sciences, Westlake University（西湖大学理论科学研究院）；School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University（北京大学数学科学学院）；Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research, Peking University（北京大学北京国际数学研究中心）
We propose a discrete time discrete space Markov chain approximation with a Brownian bridge correction for computing curvilinear boundary crossing probabilities of a general diffusion process on a finite time interval. For broad classes of curvilinear boundaries and diffusion processes, we prove the convergence of the constructed approximations in the form of products of the respective substochastic matrices to the boundary crossing probabilities for the process as the time grid used to construct the Markov chains is getting finer. Numerical results indicate that the convergence rate for the p…
Consider the motion of a Brownian particle in three dimensions, whose two spatial coordinates are standard Brownian motions with zero drift, and the remaining (unknown) spatial coordinate is a standard Brownian motion with a non-zero drift. Given that the position of the Brownian particle is being observed in real time, the problem is to detect as soon as possible and with minimal probabilities of the wrong terminal decisions, which spatial coordinate has the non-zero drift. We solve this problem in the Bayesian formulation, under any prior probabilities of the non-zero drift being in any of t…
A new formula for the probability that a standard Brownian motion stays between two linear boundaries is proved. A simple algorithm is deduced. Uniform precision estimates are computed. Different implementations have been made available online as R packages.
We consider an obliquely reflected Brownian motion $Z$ with positive drift in a quadrant stopped at time $T$, where $T:=\inf \{ t>0 : Z(t)=(0,0) \}$ is the first hitting time of the origin. Such a process can be defined even in the non-standard case where the reflection matrix is not completely-$\mathcal{S}$. We show that in this case the process has two possible behaviors: either it tends to infinity or it hits the corner (origin) in a finite time. Given an arbitrary starting point $(u,v)$ in the quadrant, we consider the escape (resp. absorption) probabilities $\mathbb{P}_{(u,v)}[T=\infty]$ …
In this survey we explore the salient connections made between Brownian motion, symmetrization and complex analysis in the last 60 years starting with Kakutani's paper (1944) equating harmonic measure and exit probability. To exemplify these connections we will survey the techniques used in the literature to prove isoperimetric results for exit probabilities and Riesz capacities.
We consider the sum of two self-similar centred Gaussian processes with different self-similarity indices. Under non-negativity assumptions of covariance functions and some further minor conditions, we show that the asymptotic behaviour of the persistence probability of the sum is the same as for the single process with the greater self-similarity index. In particular, this covers the mixed fractional Brownian motion introduced in Cheridito (2001) and shows that the corresponding persistence probability decays asymptotically polynomially with persistence exponent $1-\max(1/2,H),$ where $H$ is …
Basic properties of Brownian motion are used to derive two results concerning birth-death chains. First, the probability of extinction is calculated. Second, sufficient conditions on the transition probabilities of a birth-death chain are given to ensure that the expected value of the chain converges to a limit. The theory of Brownian motion local time figures prominently in the proof of the second result.
In this paper, we consider the drawdown and drawup of the fractional Brownian motion with trend, which corresponds to the logarithm of geometric fractional Brownian motion representing the stock price in financial market. We derive the asymptotics of tail probabilities of the maximum drawdown and maximum drawup as the threshold goes to infinity, respectively. It turns out that the extremes of drawdown leads to new scenarios of asymptotics depending on Hurst index of fractional Brownian motion.
We construct a planar diffusion process whose infinitesimal generator depends only on the order of the components of the process. Speaking informally and a bit imprecisely for the moment, imagine you run two Brownian-like particles on the real line. At any given time, you assign positive drift g and diffusion σ to the laggard; and you assign negative drift -h and diffusion ρ to the leader. We compute the transition probabilities of this process, discuss its realization in terms of appropriate systems of stochastic differential equations, study its dynamics under a time reversal, and note that …
We examine the non-exit probability of a multidimensional Brownian motion from a growing truncated Weyl chamber. Different regimes are identified according to the growth speed, ranging from polynomial decay over stretched-exponential to exponential decay. Furthermore we derive associated large deviation principles for the empirical measure of the properly rescaled and transformed Brownian motion as the dimension grows to infinity. Our main tool is an explicit eigenvalue expansion for the transition probabilities before exiting the truncated Weyl chamber.
We consider the tail probabilities for Brownian exit time from a class of perturbed multi-strips in Euclidean plane. Under some assumptions we prove that the long stays in a perturbed multi-strip are more likely than those in a strip of the same width. This effect is related to the existence of the trapped modes in waveguides.
In this monograph, we construct and study a sigma-finite measure on continuous functions from R_+ to R, strongly related to many probability measures obtained by penalisation of Brownian motion, i.e. as limits of probabilities which are absolutely continuous with respect to Wiener measure. This remarkable sigma-finite measure can be generalized in three other cases: one can start from a two-dimensional Brownian motion, from a recurrent diffusion with values in R_+, and from a discrete, recurrent Markov chain.
The ``Brownian bees'' model describes an ensemble of $N=$~const independent branching Brownian particles. The conservation of $N$ is provided by a modified branching process. When a particle branches into two particles, the particle which is farthest from the origin is eliminated simultaneously. The spatial density of the particles is governed by the solution of a free boundary problem for a reaction-diffusion equation in the limit of $N \gg 1$. At long times, the particle density approaches a spherically symmetric steady state solution with a compact support of radius $\bar{\ell}_0$. However,…
This paper is concerned with Random walk approximations of the Brownian motion on the Affine group Aff(R). We are in particular interested in the case where the innovations are discrete. In this framework, the return probability of the walk have fractional exponential decay in large time, as opposed to the polynomial one of the continuous object. We prove that integrating those return probabilities on a suitable neighborhood of the origin, the expected polynomial decay is restored. This is what we call a Quasi-local theorem.
We study the persistence probability for processes with stationary increments. Our results apply to a number of examples: sums of stationary correlated random variables whose scaling limit is fractional Brownian motion, random walks in random sceneries, random processes in Brownian scenery, and the Matheron-de Marsily model in Z^2 with random orientations of the horizontal layers. Using a new approach, strongly related to the study of the range, we obtain an upper bound of optimal order in the general case and improved lower bounds (compared to previous literature) for many processes.
This article investigates several properties related to densities of solutions X to differential equations driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/4. We first determine conditions for strict positivity of the density of X_t. Then we obtain some exponential bounds for this density when the diffusion coefficient satisfies an elliptic type condition. Finally, still in the elliptic case, we derive some bounds on the hitting probabilities of sets by fractional differential systems in terms of Newtonian capacities.
We study deviation probabilities for the number of high positioned particles in branching Brownian motion, and confirm a conjecture of Derrida and Shi (2016). We also solve the corresponding problem for the two-dimensional discrete Gaussian free field. Our method relies on an elementary inequality for inhomogeneous Galton-Watson processes.
Using structures of Abstract Wiener Spaces, we define a fractional Brownian field indexed by a product space $(0,1/2] \times L^2(T,m)$, $(T,m)$ a separable measure space, where the first coordinate corresponds to the Hurst parameter of fractional Brownian motion. This field encompasses a large class of existing fractional Brownian processes, such as Lévy fractional Brownian motions and multiparameter fractional Brownian motions, and provides a setup for new ones. We prove that it has satisfactory incremental variance in both coordinates and derive certain continuity and Hölder regularity prope…
In the present paper, the Karhunen-Lo{è}ve eigenvalues for a sub-fractional Brownian motion are considered in the case of $H>\frac12$. Rigorous large $n$ asymptotics for those eigenvalues are shown, based on functional analysis method. By virtue of these asymptotics, along with some standard large deviations results, asymptotically estimates for the closely related problem of small $L^2$-ball probabilities for a sub-fractional Brownian motion are derived. By the way, asymptotic analysis on the Karhunen-Lo{è}ve eigenvalues for the corresponding "derivative" process is also established.
This paper provides yet another look at the mixed fractional Brownian motion (fBm), this time, from the spectral perspective. We derive an approximation for the eigenvalues of its covariance operator, asymptotically accurate up to the second order. This in turn allows to compute the exact $L_2$-small ball probabilities, previously known only at logarithmic precision. The obtained expressions show an interesting stratification of scales, which occurs at certain values of the Hurst parameter of the fractional component. Some of them have been previously encountered in other problems involving su…
We consider a branching particle system where each particle moves as an independent Brownian motion and breeds at a rate proportional to its distance from the origin raised to the power $p$, for $p\in[0,2)$. The asymptotic behaviour of the right-most particle for this system is already known; in this article we give large deviations probabilities for particles following "difficult" paths, growth rates along "easy" paths, the total population growth rate, and we derive the optimal paths which particles must follow to achieve this growth rate.
For a hyperbolic Brownian motion on the Poincaré half-plane $\mathbb{H}^2$, starting from a point of hyperbolic coordinates $z=(η, α)$ inside a hyperbolic disc $U$ of radius $\barη$, we obtain the probability of hitting the boundary $\partial U$ at the point $(\bar η,\bar α)$. For $\barη \to \infty$ we derive the asymptotic Cauchy hitting distribution on $\partial \mathbb{H}^2$ and for small values of $η$ and $\bar η$ we obtain the classical Euclidean Poisson kernel. The exit probabilities $\mathbb{P}_z\{T_{η_1}<T_{η_2}\}$ from a hyperbolic annulus in $\mathbb{H}^2$ of radii $η_1$ and $η_2$ ar…
In this article we study transition probabilities of a class of subordinate Brownian motions. Under mild assumptions on the Laplace exponent of the corresponding subordinator, sharp two sided estimates of the transition probability are established. This approach, in particular, covers subordinators with Laplace exponents that vary regularly at infinity with index one, e.g. \[ ϕ(λ)=\fracλ{\log(1+λ)}-1 \quad \text{ or }\quad ϕ(λ)=\fracλ{\log(1+λ^{β/2})},\ β\in (0,2)\, \] that correspond to subordinate Brownian motions with scaling order that is not necessarily strictly between 0 and 2. These est…
