The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 Mw=6.0 mainshock at Parkfield, California, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault. We use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this new series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield mainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are frequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come from physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (the Brownian Passage Time Model and the Minimalist Model). The differences resulting from these five renewal models are emphasized.
Physics-Based Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment: A New Paradigm for Earthquake Forecasting
Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech)（南方科技大学高等交叉研究院风险、预测与管理研究所）；Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)（意大利国家地球物理学与火山学研究所）
Waveform-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Ground-Motion Generative Models
National Research Institute for Resilience Engineering Research Center Earth Science and Disaster Resilience Graduate School of Engineering（国立研究开发法人防灾科学技术研究所地球科学与灾害韧性研究生院）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）
The State of Tripura lies in northeast India which is considered to be one of the most seismically active regions of the world. In the present study, a realistic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) of Tripura State based on improved seismogenic sources considering layered polygonal sources corresponding to hypo-central depth range of 0 to 25 km, 25 to 70 km and 70 to 180 km, respectively and data driven selection of suitable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in a logic tree framework is presented. Analyses have been carried out by formulating a layered seismogenic source zo…
The discovery of gas in Groningen in 1959 has been a massive boon to the Dutch economy. From the 1990s onwards though, gas production has led to induced seismicity. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive exploratory analysis of the spatio-temporal earthquake catalogue. We develop a non-parametric adaptive kernel smoothing technique to estimate the spatio-temporal hazard map and to interpolate monthly well-based gas production statistics. Second- and higher-order inhomogeneous summary statistics are used to show that the state of the art rate-and-state models for the prediction of seismic …
Cross-Sectional and Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Seismicity Parameters in the Zagros Orogenic Belt: Insights into Crustal Stress Distribution and Seismic Hazard
Farhangian University（法尔坎吉安大学）；Ankara University（安卡拉大学）；Arak University（阿拉克大学）；the University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech)（斯科尔科沃科学技术研究所）
An Agentic Interface for End-to-End Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis
Université Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec, ENS Paris-Saclay, CNRS, LMPS — Laboratoire de Mécanique Paris-Saclay（巴黎-萨克莱大学、中央超导学院、巴黎-萨克莱高等师范学院、国家科学研究中心、LMPS——巴黎-萨克莱力学实验室）；GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences（德国地球科学霍普夫兹中心）；University of Potsdam, Institute of Geosciences（波茨坦大学、地球科学学院）
Mitigation and optimization of induced seismicity using physics-based forecasting
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego（斯克里普斯海洋学研究所，加州大学圣迭戈分校）；Department of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University（地质科学系，圣地亚哥州立大学）；Institute of Geological Sciences, of Freie Universität Berlin（柏林自由大学地质科学研究所）
Dynamic parameters of structures extracted from ambient vibration measurements: an aid for the seismic vulnerability assessment of existing buildings in moderate seismic hazard regions
The presence of topography influences the seismic ground motion and may result in strong amplifications, generally at the top of hills and reliefs. The increasing urbanization of hills requires an accurate estimation of these effects even in areas of moderate seismicity. The simplified coefficients provided by the Eurocodes8 do not depend on the frequency and underestimate the amplification in many situations, which justifies the development of new methods based on easily accessible data. The city of Menton, located in the southeast of France, between the Alps and the Ligurian basin, is one of…
Constructing balanced datasets for predicting failure modes in structural systems under seismic hazards
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, United States（加州大学伯克利分校土木与环境工程系）；Department of Civil Systems Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon, Republic of Korea（全州大学土木系统工程系）
Among different types of hazards associated with underground mining in Polish copper mines, one of the most dangerous is rock burst hazard. Having in mind that the depth of exploitation is getting deeper, this problem will likely get worse in the near future. This kind of hazard is connected inherently with seismic events. Controlled group blasting within a potentially unstable roof stratum is considered as an active method of rock burst prevention. A number of recorded seismic events can be clearly and directly explained by the blasting works effects. With electronic detonators, it is possibl…
Earthquakes are major hazards to humans, buildings and infrastructure. Early warning methods aim to provide advance notice of incoming strong shaking to enable preventive action and mitigate seismic risk. Their usefulness depends on accuracy, the relation between true, missed and false alerts, and timeliness, the time between a warning and the arrival of strong shaking. Current approaches suffer from apparent aleatoric uncertainties due to simplified modelling or short warning times. Here we propose a novel early warning method, the deep-learning based transformer earthquake alerting model (TE…
Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies, including seismic hazard assessment. We assess the effect of declustering on the frequency-magnitude distribution of mainshocks. In particular, we examine the dependence of the b-value of declustered catalogs on the choice of declustering approach and algorithm-specific parameters. Using the catalog of earthquakes in California since 1980, we show that the b-value decreases by up to 30% due to declustering with respect …
Water distribution systems (WDS) sustained severe damage in the past earthquakes. While previous studies investigated the seismic performance of buried water pipelines, the effects of corrosion on the pipeline seismic performance were ignored. The presence of corrosion on metallic pipeline walls aggravates seismic damage level because corrosion significantly reduces the pipeline strength. Most of the existing buried pipelines in the United States are aged and non-ductile metallic pipelines, which are vulnerable to seismic loading. To ensure continuous and smooth water supply to communities dur…
East China University of Technology（东华理工大学）；Dalhousie University（达尔豪斯大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Earthquake early warning systems are required to report earthquake locations and magnitudes as quickly as possible before the damaging S wave arrival to mitigate seismic hazards. Deep learning techniques provide potential for extracting earthquake source information from full seismic waveforms instead of seismic phase picks. We developed a novel deep learning earthquake early warning system that utilizes fully convolutional networks to simultaneously detect earthquakes and estimate their source parameters from continuous seismic waveform streams. The system determines earthquake location and m…
Data-Driven Forecasting of three-Component Seismograms Using Transformer Architectures
Institut für Kernphysik, Universität Münster（穆斯特大学核物理研究所）；Institut für Geophysik, Universität Münster（穆斯特大学地质物理研究所）；James Cook University（詹姆斯·库克大学）；Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland（丹麦和格陵兰地质调查局）
Performance-based optimization of energy dissipation devices in structures necessitates massive and repetitive dynamic analyses. In the endurance time method known as a rather fast dynamic analysis procedure, structures are subjected to intensifying dynamic excitations and their response at multiple intensity levels is estimated by a minimal number of analyses. So, this method significantly reduces computational endeavors. In this paper, the endurance time method is employed to determine the optimal placement of viscous dampers in a weak structure to achieve the desired performance at various …
