发表机构
Université Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec, ENS Paris-Saclay, CNRS, LMPS — Laboratoire de Mécanique Paris-Saclay; GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences; University of Potsdam, Institute of Geosciences（巴黎-萨克莱大学、中央超导学院、巴黎-萨克莱高等师范学院、国家科学研究中心、LMPS——巴黎-萨克莱力学实验室; 德国地球科学霍普夫兹中心; 波茨坦大学、地球科学学院）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
研究针对概率地震危险性和风险分析专家化问题，提出通过开源服务器及MCP构建智能体接口，利用LLM与OpenQuake引擎等协作计算，实现多功能分析，结果与官方值匹配度高且计算快，还能接受自定义GMM并添加新功能，设计层可拓展。
AI 中文摘要
概率地震危险性和风险分析是建筑规范、保险定价和灾害管理的基础，但目前其开放引擎管道主要供专家使用。本文通过一个可通过模型上下文协议（MCP）访问的开源服务器，展示了首个用于端到端概率地震危险性和风险链的智能体接口。MCP使用24个类型化端点封装了OpenQuake引擎和2020年欧洲地震危险性和风险模型。智能体由带工具的大语言模型（LLM）定义，LLM负责编排、翻译和解释，OpenQuake引擎和自定义代码计算危险值、破坏概率和损失。每个响应都带有源模型、地面运动模型（GMM）和经过认证的数据来源以确保透明度。结果在73个城市与ESHM20进行了基准测试，复制的475年谱加速度与官方值的中位数匹配在5%以内，完整的从危险到损失估计只需几分钟。该接口还接受用户提供的关于已发布树中任何构造区域类型的经验或机器学习GMM，并添加了现有网络服务遗漏的其他功能：条件谱、确定性场景、地表危险、建筑物损失、改造比较以及带波形检索的记录选择。所提出的设计层可转移到其他区域模型和其他灾害。
英文摘要
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analyses are backbone to building codes, insurance pricing, and disaster management. Yet their open-engine pipelines remain accessible primarily to experts. We present the first agentic interface to the end-to-end probabilistic seismic hazard and risk chain via an open-source server, addressable through the Model Context Protocol (MCP). MCP wraps the OpenQuake engine and the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models using twenty-four typed endpoints. Here, an agent is defined as a large language model (LLM) with tools. LLM is confined to the role of an orchestrator so it plans, translates, and explains, while the OpenQuake engine and custom codes compute hazard values, damage probability, and loss. Each response carries source-model, ground-motion model (GMM), and certified data provenance for transparency. Results are benchmarked against ESHM20 at seventy-three cities, the replicated 475-year spectral accelerations match official values within a median of 5 %, and a full hazard-to-loss estimate runs in minutes. The interface additionally accepts a user-supplied empirical or machine-learning GMM on any tectonic region type of the published tree, and adds additional features that existing web services omit: conditional spectra, deterministic scenarios, surface hazard, per-building loss, retrofit comparison, and record selection with waveform retrieval. The proposed design layers transfer to other regional models, and to other hazards.
Comments24 pages, 8 figures
DOI：10.1038/s44304-026-00262-z
