We estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering, assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal network of dimension D. This model predicts that both the number of events triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m and the stress change induced by this earthquake at the location of other earthquakes increase with m as \~10^(Dm/2). The stronger the spatial clustering, the larger the influence of small earthquakes on stress changes at the location of a future event as well as earthquake triggering. If earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with b>D/2, small earthquakes collectively dominate stress transfer and earthquake triggering, because their greater frequency overcomes their smaller individual triggering potential. Using a Southern-California catalog, we observe that the rate of seismicity triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m increases with m as 10^(alpha m), where alpha=1.00+-0.05. We also find that the magnitude distribution of triggered earthquakes is independent of the triggering earthquake magnitude m. When alpha=b, small earthquakes are roughly as important to earthquake triggering as larger ones. We evaluate the fractal correlation dimension of hypocenters D=2 using two relocated catalogs for Southern California, and removing the effect of short-term clustering. Thus D=2alpha as predicted by assuming that earthquake triggering is due to static stress. The value D=2 implies that small earthquakes are as important as larger ones for stress transfers between earthquakes.
Evidence for the triggering of earthquakes by tides has been largely lacking for the continents but detectable in the oceans where the tides are larger. By far the strongest tidal triggering signals are in volcanic areas of mid-ocean ridges. These areas offer the most promise for the study of this process, but even the most basic mechanism of tidal triggering at the ridges has been elusive. The triggering occurs at low tides, but as the earthquakes are of the normal faulting type, low tides should inhibit rather than encourage faulting. Here, treating the most well documented case, Axial Volca…
Finite-Horizon Triggering Cores of Earthquake Sequences
Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学前沿交叉学科研究院风险分析、预测与管理研究所）；CNRS, ENS de Lyon, LPENSL, UMR 5672（法国国家科学研究中心里昂高等师范学院物理实验室）
Fundamentally related to the UV divergence problem in Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making the prediction of the latter difficult if not inherently impossible. By developing a rigorous validation procedure, we show that, in fact, large earthquakes (above magnitude 6.3 in California) are preferentially triggered by large events. Because of the magnitude correlations intrinsic in the validated model, we further rationalize the existence of earthquake doublets. …
The paper describes a theoretical model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected prior to the earthquake, a scheme of the earthquake prediction methodology, the possible methods, which are capable of simultaneous determination of all three characteristic parameters necessary for incoming earthquake prediction. We have suggested the possible arrangements of the VLF/LF mobile network and offered a completely different view of seismic risk assessing and reducing the accumulated tectonic stress in the earthquake focus as well.
Coulomb-stress theory has been used for years in seismology to understand how earthquakes trigger each other. Whenever an earthquake occurs, the stress field changes, and places with positive increases are brought closer to failure. Earthquake models that relate earthquake rates and Coulomb stress after a main event, such as the rate-and-state model, assume that the magnitude distribution of earthquakes is not affected by the change in the Coulomb stress. By using different slip models, we calculate the change in Coulomb stress in the fault plane for every aftershock after the Landers event (C…
A likely source of earthquake clustering is static stress transfer between individual events. Previous attempts to quantify the role of static stress for earthquake triggering generally considered only the stress changes caused by large events, and often discarded data uncertainties. We conducted a robust two-fold empirical test of the static stress change hypothesis by accounting for all events of magnitude M>=2.5 and their location and focal mechanism uncertainties provided by catalogs for Southern California between 1981 and 2010, first after resolving the focal plane ambiguity and second a…
``Remote triggering" refers to the inducement of earthquakes by weak perturbations that emanate from far away sources, typically intense earthquakes that happen at much larger distances than their nearby aftershocks, sometimes even around the globe. Here, we propose a mechanism for this phenomenon; the proposed mechanism is generic, resulting from the breaking of Hamiltonian symmetry due to the existence of friction. We allow a transition from static to dynamic friction. {\em Linearly stable} stressed systems display giant sensitivity to small perturbations of arbitrary frequency (without a ne…
Earthquake size-frequency distributions commonly follow a power law, with the b value often used to quantify the relative proportion of small and large events. Laboratory experiments have found that the b value of microfractures decreases with increasing stress. Studies have inferred that this relationship also holds for earthquakes based on observations of earthquake b values varying systematically with faulting style, depth, and for subduction zone earthquakes, plate age. However, these studies are limited by small sample sizes despite aggregating events over large regions, which precludes t…
Theoretical constraints on tidal triggering of slow earthquakes
Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS-UMR 8538, PSL Research University（巴黎高等师范学院）；Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Miniéres (BRGM)（法国地质矿产调查局）；Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo（东京大学地球行星科学系）
Crustal deformation due to the 2016 earthquake sequence in Kumamoto, Japan, that culminated in a preceding earthquake of magnitude M6.5 and a subsequent M7.3 earthquake 28 hours later, caused stress perturbation on and around the causative Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone. Monitoring changes in seismicity pattern along this zone plays a role in understanding the process before and after major earthquakes. For this purpose, stress-dependent laws in statistical seismology can be used: the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size law and the Omori-Utsu aftershock-decay law. We review the results obtained by us…
Low-frequency earthquakes are a particular class of slow earthquakes that provide a unique source of information on the mechanical properties of a subduction zone during the preparation of large earthquakes. Despite increasing detection of these events in recent years, their source mechanisms are still poorly characterised, and the relation between their magnitude and size remains controversial. Here, we present the source characterisation of more than 10,000 low-frequency earthquakes that occurred during tremor sequences in 2012-2016 along the Nankai subduction zone in western Shikoku, Japan.…
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered earthquakes. In nearly all generalizations of the ETAS model, the magnitudes of the background and the triggered earthquakes are assumed to follow Gutenberg-Richter law with the same exponent (\b{eta}-value). Furthermore, the magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes are always assumed to be independent of the magnitude of the triggering earthquake. Using an EM algor…
Plate motions are governed by equilibrium between basal and edge forces. Great earthquakes may induce differential static stress changes across tectonic plates, enabling a new equilibrium state. Here we consider the torque balance for idealized circular plates and find a simple scalar relationship for changes in relative plate speed as a function of its size, upper mantle viscosity, and coseismic stress changes. Applied to Japan, the 2011 $\mathrm{M}_{\mathrm{W}}=9.0$ Tohoku earthquake generated coseismic stresses of $10^2-10^5$~Pa that could have induced changes in motion of small (radius $\s…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and spatial Voronoi tessellation ensembles. We use the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to rank inverted models given their likelihood and complexity and select the best models to finally compute an ensemble model at any location. Using a synthetic catalog, we also check that the proposed method correctly inverts the know…
A rate-and-state friction based criterion for the probability of earthquake fault jumps
Institut de Radioprotection et de sûreté Nucléaire（法国核辐射防护与核安全研究所）；Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, IRD, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, Géoazur（蔚蓝海岸大学、法国国家科学研究中心、法国海外发展署、蔚蓝海岸观测台、地球与环境科学实验室）；CNRS-INSU, Institut des Sciences de la Terre Paris, Sorbonne Université, ISTeP UMR 7193（法国国家科学研究中心-地球科学研究与监测研究所、巴黎地球科学研究所、索邦大学、地球物理学实验室）；Laboratoire de Géologie, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Université, CNRS UMR 8538（高等师范学校地质学系、巴黎文理研究大学、法国国家科学研究中心地球科学实验室）；Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire et Radioprotection（法国核安全和辐射防护管理局）；Department of Earth Sciences, La Sapienza University of Rome（罗马第一大学地球科学系）；Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院地质与行星科学系）
We investigated changes in the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter's law in and around the focal areas of earthquakes on March 20 and on May 1, 2021, with magnitude (M) 6.9 and 6.8, respectively, which occurred off the Pacific coast of Miyagi prefecture, northeastern Japan. We showed that the b value in these focal areas had been noticeably small, especially within a few years before the occurrence of the M6.9 earthquake in its vicinity, indicating that differential stress had been high in the focal areas. The coseismic slip of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake seems to have stopped just short of the ea…
A numerical scheme using the combined finite-discrete element methods (FDEM) is employed to study a model of an earthquake system comprising a granular layer embedded in a formation. When the formation is driven so as to shear the granular layer, a system of stress chains emerges. The stress chains endow the layer with resistance to shear and on failure launch broadcasts into the formation. These broadcasts, received as acoustic emission, provide a remote monitor of the state of the granular layer, of the earthquake system.
The long-term erosion of steep landscapes is punctuated by dramatic erosional events that can remove significant amount of sediments within a time-scale shorter than a seismic cycle. However, the role of such large erosional events on seismicity is poorly understood. We use QDYN, a quasi-dynamic numerical model of earthquake cycles to investigate the effect of a large erosional event on seismicity. The progressive evacuation of landslide sediments is modelled by a transient normal stress decrease. We show that erosional events with a shorter duration compared with the duration of a seismic cyc…
Decades of seismological observations have highlighted the variability of foreshock occurrence prior to natural earthquakes, making thus difficult to track how earthquakes start. Here, we report on three stick-slip experiments performed on cylindrical samples of Indian metagabbro under upper crustal stress conditions (30-60 $MPa$). Acoustic emissions (AEs) were continuously recorded by 8 calibrated acoustic sensors during the experiments. Seismological parameters (moment magnitude, corner frequency and stress-drop) of the detected AEs ($-8.8 \leq Mw \leq -7 $) follow the scaling law between mo…
Non-randomness of Japan megaquakes implied by stress recovery and accumulation
University of Shizuoka（静冈大学）；Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校物理与天文系）；Center for Integrated Research and Education of Natural Hazards, Shizuoka University（静冈大学自然灾害综合研究教育研究中心）；Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）；Yokohama Institute for Earth Sciences, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology（日本海洋地球科学技术厅横滨地球科学研究所）
Pulse-like ruptures arise spontaneously in many elastodynamic rupture simulations and seem to be the dominant rupture mode along crustal faults. Pulse-like ruptures propagating under steady-state conditions can be efficiently analysed theoretically, but it remains unclear how they can arise and how they evolve if perturbed. Using thermal pressurisation as a representative constitutive law, we conduct elastodynamic simulations of pulse-like ruptures and determine the spatio-temporal evolution of slip, slip rate and pulse width perturbations induced by infinitesimal perturbations in background s…
Today, observations of earthquake precursors remain widely debated. While precursory slow slip is an important feature of earthquake nucleation, foreshock sequences are not always observed and their temporal evolution remains unconstrained. Here, we report on stick-slip experiments (laboratory earthquakes) conducted under seismogenic stresses in dry and fluid pressure conditions. We show that the precursory moment release scales with mainshock magnitude irrespective of the slip behavior (seismic or aseismic), the presence of fluid and the fault's slip history. Importantly, this observation is …
We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are based on a highly idealized initial stress distribution and a simple velocity-dependent expression for friction. The full scope of the model has, therefore, not been fully demonstrated. Further developments, presented here, include more physically realistic treatments of both the initial conditions and friction. Model predictions are: (1) The type of a seismic…
Università La Sapienza（罗马第一大学）；The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Earthquake forecasting and prediction have long and in some cases sordid histories but recent work has rekindled interest based on advances in early warning, hazard assessment for induced seismicity and successful prediction of laboratory earthquakes. In the lab, frictional stick-slip events provide an analog for earthquakes and the seismic cycle. Labquakes are ideal targets for machine learning (ML) because they can be produced in long sequences under controlled conditions. Recent works show that ML can predict several aspects of labquakes using fault zone acoustic emissions. Here, we general…
