AI 中文总结
研究开发三类型Hawkes-ETAS模型，通过有向分支矩阵$N$分辨不同类型地震，利用其特征向量几何结构等阐述非正规放大机制，给出物理简化参数化，有数值例子及可证伪预测，还说明了标量ETAS拟合相关情况。
AI 中文摘要
传统上，地震触发由标量ETAS分支比来表征。我们开发了一种三类型Hawkes-ETAS模型，通过有向分支矩阵$N$来分辨走滑、正断层和逆冲/推覆地震。虽然谱半径$\rho(N)<1$控制渐近稳定性，但其特征向量几何结构控制有限生成动力学。不对称的跨机制路径可使$N$非正规，在严格亚临界过程中产生大的瞬态和累积级联响应。我们从接收器-断层可用性、库仑应力投影、机制相关的震级分布、构造加载和近简并自触发等方面来阐述这种几何结构。一种物理简化的参数化方法分离了对角自触发、一个主要的构造驱动列和较弱的二次耦合。数值例子表明，在特征值保持固定时，级联放大可强烈增加。五个构造信息场景矩阵说明了合理的几何结构。该理论为机制分辨目录产生了六个可证伪的预测，并确定了标量ETAS拟合如何将多类型放大吸收到明显升高的分支比中。
英文摘要
Earthquake triggering is conventionally characterised by a scalar ETAS branching ratio. We develop a three-type Hawkes-ETAS model that resolves strike-slip, normal, and reverse/thrust earthquakes through a directed branching matrix $N$. While the spectral radius $ρ(N)<1$ controls asymptotic stability, its eigenvector geometry controls finite-generation dynamics. Asymmetric cross-mechanism pathways can render $N$ non-normal, producing large transient and cumulative cascade responses in a strictly subcritical process. We motivate this geometry from receiver-fault availability, Coulomb stress projection, mechanism-dependent magnitude distributions, tectonic loading, and near-degenerate self-triggering. A physically reduced parametrisation separates diagonal self-triggering, a dominant tectonic driver column, and weaker secondary couplings. Numerical examples show that cascade amplification can increase strongly while the eigenvalues remain fixed. Five tectonically informed scenario matrices illustrate plausible geometries. The theory produces six falsifiable predictions for mechanism-resolved catalogues and identifies how scalar ETAS fits may absorb multitype amplification into an apparently elevated branching ratio.
Comments21 pages, 1 table
