Djalil Chafai, Didier Concordet
The aim of this article is to simplify Pfanzagl's proof of consistency for asymptotic maximum likelihood estimators, and to extend it to more general asymptotic M-estimators. The method relies on the existence of a sort of contraction of the parameter space which admits the true parameter as a fixed point. The proofs are short and elementary.
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In finite mixtures of location-scale distributions, if there is no constraint or penalty on the parameters, then the maximum likelihood estimator does not exist because the likelihood is unbounded. To avoid this problem, we consider a penalized likelihood, where the penalty is a function of the minimum of the ratios of the scale parameters and the sample size. It is shown that the penalized maximum likelihood estimator is strongly consistent. We also analyze the consistency of a penalized maximum likelihood estimator where the penalty is imposed on the scale parameters themselves.
We describe a four-level hierarchy mapping both all discrete estimation problems and all estimators on these problems, such that the hierarchy describes each estimator's consistency guarantees on each problem class. We show that no estimator is consistent for all estimation problems, but that some estimators, such as Maximum A Posteriori, are consistent for the widest possible class of discrete estimation problems. For Maximum Likelihood and Approximate Maximum Likelihood estimators we show that they do not provide consistency on as wide a class, but define a sub-class of problems characterise…
We establish uniform-in-bandwidth consistency for kernel-type estimators of the differential entropy. We consider two kernel-type estimators of Shannon's entropy. As a consequence, an asymptotic 100% confidence interval of entropy is provided.
Rates of strong uniform consistency for the $k$-nearest neighbors kernel estimators of density and regression function
本文探讨了多元情形下密度与回归函数的 $k$-最近邻核估计量的一致性问题，并在特定假设下推导出这些估计量在整个空间 $\mathbb{R}^p$ 上的强一致一致性的收敛速率。
In this article, basing on NQD samples, we investigate the fixed design nonparametric regression model, where the errors are pairwise NQD random errors, with fixed design points, and an unknown function. Nonparametric weighted estimator will be introduced and its consistency is studied. As special case, the consistency result for weighted kernel estimators of the model is obtained. This extends the earlier work on independent random and dependent random errors to NQD case.
This paper deals with a general class of observation-driven time series models with a special focus on time series of counts. We provide conditions under which there exist strict-sense stationary and ergodic versions of such processes. The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators is then derived for well- specified and misspecified models.
A Proof of Strong Consistency of Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Independent Non-Identically Distributed Data
该研究在密度函数满足特定假设的条件下，基于已有研究给出独立非同分布数据下极大似然估计量强相合性的通用证明，并将其用于证明轨道确定问题中极大似然估计量的强相合性。
This paper highlights a tension between semiparametric efficiency and bootstrap consistency in the context of a canonical semiparametric estimation problem, namely the problem of estimating the average density. It is shown that although simple plug-in estimators suffer from bias problems preventing them from achieving semiparametric efficiency under minimal smoothness conditions, the nonparametric bootstrap automatically corrects for this bias and that, as a result, these seemingly inferior estimators achieve bootstrap consistency under minimal smoothness conditions. In contrast, several "debi…
In this paper we establish the uniform in bandwidth consistency for the transformation kernel estimator of copulas introduced in [Omelka et al.(2009)]. To this end, we first prove a uniform in bandwidth law of the iterated logarithm for the maximal deviation of this estimator from its expectation. We then show that, as n goes to infinity, the bias of the estimator converges to zero uniformly in the bandwidth h, varying over a suitable interval. A practical method of selecting the optimal bandwidth is also presented. Finally, we make conclusive simulation experiments showing the performance of …
In 1991 Stute introduced a class of estimators called conditional U-statistics. They can be seen as a generalization of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, and their strong pointwise consistency to the general regression function has been obtained in the same paper by Stute. Very recently, Gine and Mason introduced the notion of a local U-process, which generalizes that of a local empirical process, and obtained central limit theorems and laws of the iterated logarithm for this class. We apply the methods developed by Einmahl and Mason (2005) and Gine and Mason (2007a,b) to establish uniform in ban…
Generalized linear mixed models are powerful tools for analyzing clustered data, where the unknown parameters are classically (and most commonly) estimated by the maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood procedures. However, since the likelihood based procedures are known to be highly sensitive to outliers, M-estimators have become popular as a means to obtain robust estimates under possible data contamination. In this paper, we prove that, for sufficiently smooth general loss functions defining the M-estimators in generalized linear mixed models, the tail probability of the deviat…
Asymptotic normality in multi-dimension of nonparametric estimators for discrete-time semi-Markov chains
本文证明了马尔可夫更新链转移概率非参数估计量的多维渐近正态性，并将其应用于相关半马尔可夫链的其他非参数估计量。
The article introduces spatial long-range dependent models based on the fractional difference operators associated with the Gegenbauer polynomials. The results on consistency and asymptotic normality of a class of minimum contrast estimators of long-range dependence parameters of the models are obtained. A methodology to verify assumptions for consistency and asymptotic normality of minimum contrast estimators is developed. Numerical results are presented to confirm the theoretical findings.
The class of observation-driven models (ODMs) includes many models of non-linear time series which, in a fashion similar to, yet different from, hidden Markov models (HMMs), involve hidden variables. Interestingly, in contrast to most HMMs, ODMs enjoy likelihoods that can be computed exactly with computational complexity of the same order as the number of observations, making maximum likelihood estimation the privileged approach for statistical inference for these models. A celebrated example of general order ODMs is the GARCH$(p,q)$ model, for which ergodicity and inference has been studied e…
We consider a one dimensional ballistic random walk evolving in an i.i.d. parametric random environment. We provide a maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the environment parameters based on a single observation of the path till the time it reaches a distant site, and prove that this estimator is consistent as the distant site tends to infinity. We also explore the numerical performances of our estimation procedure.
We have shown in previous work that statistical inference for cooperative sequential adsorption model can be based on maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper we continue this research and establish asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator in thermodynamic limit. We also perform and discuss some numerical simulations of the model.
Consider an $(L,1)$ random walk in an i.i.d. random environment, whose environment involves certain parameter. We get the maximum likelihood estimator(MLE) of the environment parameter which can be written as functionals of a multitype branching process with immigration in a random environment(BPIRE). Because the offspring distributions of the involved multitype BPIRE are of the linear fractional type, the limit invariant distribution of the multitype BPIRE can be computed explicitly. As a result, we get the consistency of the MLE. Our result is a generalization of Comets et al. [Stochastic Pr…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic normality of the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for the truncated regression model and the Tobit model. We show that under the general setting assumed in his book, the conjectures made by Hayashi (2000) \footnote{see page 516, and page 520 of Hayashi (2000).} about the asymptotic normality of the conditional ML estimators for both models are true, namely, a sufficient condition is the nonsingularity of $\mathbf{x_tx'_t}$.
We establish asymptotic properties of $M$-estimators, defined in terms of a contrast function and observations from a continuous-time locally stationary process. Using the stationary approximation of the sequence, $θ$-weak dependence, and hereditary properties, we give sufficient conditions on the contrast function that ensure consistency and asymptotic normality of the $M$-estimator. As an example, we obtain consistency and asymptotic normality of a localized least squares estimator for observations from a sequence of time-varying Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Furthermore, for a s…
Strong Consistency of the SIMEX Estimator in Linear Regression with a Conditionally Poisson Covariate
针对带条件泊松型测量误差协变量的线性回归估计问题，本文提出拓展至条件泊松场景的POI-SIMEX算法，无需内部验证数据即可稳健校正误差，并证明了该估计量的强相合性。
A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes are not homogeneous and cannot be made homogeneous by a simple de-trending step. We show that when the trends are polynomial, the maximum likelihood estimator is able to recover the trends together with the other parameters and is strongly consistent. More precisely, the supremum norm of the difference between the true trends and the estimated ones tends to ze…
We investigate the asymptotic mean squared error of kernel estimators of the intensity function of a spatial point process. We show that when $n$ independent copies of a point process in $\mathbb R^d$ are superposed, the optimal bandwidth $h_n$ is of the order $n^{-1/(d+4)}$ under appropriate smoothness conditions on the kernel and true intensity function. We apply the Abramson principle to define adaptive kernel estimators and show that asymptotically the optimal adaptive bandwidth is of the order $n^{-1/(d+8)}$ under appropriate smoothness conditions.
We first study the drift parameter estimation of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (fOU) with periodic mean for every $\frac{1}{2}<H<1$. More precisely, we extend the consistency proved in \cite{DFW} for $\frac{1}{2}<H<\frac{3}{4}$ to the strong consistency for any $\frac{1}{2}<H<1$ on the one hand, and on the other, we also discuss the asymptotic normality given in \cite{DFW}. In the second main part of the paper, we study the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the fOU of the second kind with periodic mean for any $\frac{1}{2}<H<1$.
The maximum likelihood type estimator of SDEs with fractional Brownian motion under small noise asymptotics in the rough case
针对分数布朗运动驱动的随机微分方程，在漂移和扩散系数满足一定假设时，构造最大似然估计量，证明小噪声下漂移参数的渐近正态性与矩收敛。
Estimating the effective dimension reduction (EDR) space, related to the semiparametric regression model introduced by Li \cite{sir}, is based on the estimation of the covariance matrix $Λ$ of the conditional expectation of the vector of predictors given the response. An estimator $\widehatΛ_n$ of $Λ$ based on kernel method was introduced by Zhu and Fang \cite{Asymptotics} who then derived, under some conditions, the asymptotic distribution of $\sqrt{n}\left(\widehatΛ_n-Λ\right)$, as $n\rightarrow +\infty$. In this paper, we obtain, under specified conditions, the almost sure convergence of $\…
Asymptotic properties of parameter estimators in Vasicek model driven by tempered fractional Brownian motion
本文推导了由缓和分数布朗运动驱动的Vasicek模型中未知漂移参数最小二乘估计量的渐近分布，延续了此前关于该估计量强相合性的研究。
We consider population-size-dependent branching processes (PSDBPs) which eventually become extinct with probability one. For these processes, we derive maximum likelihood estimators for the mean number of offspring born to individuals when the current population size is $z\geq 1$. As is standard in branching process theory, an asymptotic analysis of the estimators requires us to condition on non-extinction up to a finite generation $n$ and let $n\to\infty$; however, because the processes become extinct with probability one, we are able to demonstrate that our estimators do not satisfy the clas…
In this paper we consider two closely related problems : estimation of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the covariance kernel of functional data based on (possibly) irregular measurements, and the problem of estimating the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the covariance matrix for high-dimensional Gaussian vectors. In Peng and Paul (2007), a restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach has been developed to deal with the first problem. In this paper, we establish consistency and derive rate of convergence of the REML estimator for the functional data case, under appropriate smoothness conditi…
We prove the consistency of the Power-Law Fit PLFit method proposed by Clauset et al.(2009) to estimate the power-law exponent in data coming from a distribution function with regularly-varying tail. In the complex systems community, PLFit has emerged as the method of choice to estimate the power-law exponent. Yet, its mathematical properties are still poorly understood. The difficulty in PLFit is that it is a minimum-distance estimator. It first chooses a threshold that minimizes the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the data points larger than the threshold and the Pareto tail, and then ap…
Efron [J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 54 (1992) 83--111] proposed a computationally efficient method, called the jackknife-after-bootstrap, for estimating the variance of a bootstrap estimator for independent data. For dependent data, a version of the jackknife-after-bootstrap method has been recently proposed by Lahiri [Econometric Theory 18 (2002) 79--98]. In this paper it is shown that the jackknife-after-bootstrap estimators of the variance of a bootstrap quantile are consistent for both dependent and independent data. Results from a simulation study are also presented.
Consider a random vector (X, T), where X is d-dimensional and T is one-dimensional. We suppose that the random variable T is subject to random right censoring and satisfies the $α$-mixing property. The aim of this paper is to study the behavior of the kernel estimator of the relative error regression and to establish its uniform almost sure consistency with rate. Furthermore, we have highlighted the covariance term which measures the dependency. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator performs well for a finite sample size in different cases.
In this paper, we propose an estimator of the generalized maximum mean discrepancy between several distributions, constructed by modifying a naive estimator. Asymptotic normality is obtained for this estimator both under equality of these distributions and under the alternative hypothesis.
Consistency of MLE for partially observed diffusions, with application in market microstructure modeling
本文提出部分观测扩散模型 MLE 一致性的有限参数充分条件，并在市场微观结构潜在价格模型中验证，且基于 NASDAQ 数据完成估计。
Consistency of the bootstrap for asymptotically linear estimators based on machine learning
本文针对机器学习估计冗余函数的非/半参数可微泛函估计场景，给出bootstrap一致性的一般条件，覆盖多种估计器与bootstrap类型，并通过数值研究验证其在标准方法失效时的渐近有效性。
We study asymptotic behavior of one-step $M$-estimators based on samples from arrays of not necessarily identically distributed random variables and representing explicit approximations to the corresponding consistent $M$-estimators. These estimators generalize Fisher's one-step approximations to consistent maximum likelihood estimators. As a consequence, we consider some nonlinear regression problems where the procedure mentioned allow us to construct explicit asymptotically optimal estimators. We also consider the problem of constructing initial estimators which are needed for one-step estim…
We study asymptotic behavior of one-step weighted $M$-estimators based on samples from arrays of not necessarily identically distributed random variables and representing explicit approximations to the corresponding consistent weighted $M$-estimators. Sufficient conditions are presented for asymptotic normality of the one-step weighted $M$-estimators under consideration. As a consequence, we consider some well-known nonlinear regression models where the procedure mentioned allow us to construct explicit asymptotically optimal estimators.
We establish asymptotic normality for estimators of the additive regression components under random censorship. To build our estimators, we couple the marginal integration method (Newey (1994)) with an initial Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted estimator of the multivariate censored regression function introduced by Carbonez et al. (1995) and Kohler et al. (2002). Asymptotic confidence bands are derived from our result.
We study asymptotic behaviors of Bayes type estimators and give sufficient conditions to obtain asymptotic limit distribution of estimation error. We assume polynomial type large deviation inequalities and prove asymptotic equivalence of estimation error of Bayes type estimator and that of M-estimator by the virtue of Ibragimov-Has'minskii's theory. The results can be applied to several statistical models of diffusion processes and jump diffusion processes. In this paper, we focus on application to a statistical model of an ergodic diffusion process and give asymptotic normality and convergenc…
We propose an estimator of the kernel-based conditional mean dependence measure obtained from an appropriate modification of a naive estimator based on usual empirical estimators. We then get asymptotic normality of this estimator both under conditional mean independence hypothesis and under the alternative hypothesis. A new test for conditional mean independence of random variables valued into Hilbert spaces is then introduced.
A change point detection procedure using the method of moment estimators is proposed. The test statistics is based on a suitable $Z$-process. The asymptotic behavior of this process is established under both the null and the alternative hypothesis and the consistency of the test is also proved. An estimator for the change point is proposed and its consistency is derived. Some examples of this method applied to a parametric family of random variables are presented.
On Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of Least Absolute Deviation Estimators for 2-dimensional Sinusoidal Model
针对二维正弦模型参数估计问题，提出鲁棒最小绝对偏差估计量，证明其强一致性与渐近正态性，通过仿真和纹理数据分析验证其在异常值、重尾噪声场景下的优势与实用性。
Statistical analysis of network is an active research area and the literature counts a lot of papers concerned with network models and statistical analysis of networks. However, very few papers deal with missing data in network analysis and we reckon that, in practice, networks are often observed with missing values. In this paper we focus on the Stochastic Block Model with valued edges and consider a MCAR setting by assuming that every dyad (pair of nodes) is sampled identically and independently of the others with probability $ρ> 0$. We prove that maximum likelihood estimators and its variat…
This paper deals with the asymptotic statistical properties of a class of redescending M-estimators in linear models with increasing dimension. This class is wide enough to include popular high breakdown point estimators such as S-estimators and MM-estimators, which were not covered by existing results in the literature. We prove consistency assuming only that $p/n \rightarrow 0$ and asymptotic normality essentially if $p^{3}/n \rightarrow 0$, where $p$ is the number of covariates and $n$ is the sample size.
We introduce and study a local linear nonparametric regression estimator for censorship model. The main goal of this paper is, to establish the uniform almost sure consistency result with rate over a compact set for the new estimate. To support our theoretical result, a simulation study has been done to make comparison with the classical regression estimator.
Consistency of Nonparametric Density Estimators in CAT(0) Orthant Space
针对系统发育树分析用的CAT(0)空间中非参数密度估计量理论性质不明的问题，本文在更通用的CAT(0)卦限空间中证明了核密度估计与对数凹最大似然估计的一致性，校正了核估计的边界偏差。
This paper concerns the estimation of the regression function at a given point in nonparametric heteroscedastic models with Gaussian noise or with noise having unknown distribution. In the two cases an asymptotically efficient kernel estimator is constructed for the minimax absolute error risk.
Consider a parametrized family of general hidden Markov models, where both the observed and unobserved components take values in a complete separable metric space. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter is strongly consistent under a rather minimal set of assumptions. As special cases of our main result, we obtain consistency in a large class of nonlinear state space models, as well as general results on linear Gaussian state space models and finite state models. A novel aspect of our approach is an information-theoretic technique for proving identifiability, whi…
We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the Laplacian Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE) for a general class of causal time series including ARMA, AR($\infty$), GARCH, ARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH, APARCH, ARMA-APARCH,..., processes. We notably exhibit the advantages (moment order and robustness) of this estimator compared to the classical Gaussian QMLE. Numerical simulations confirms the accuracy of this estimator.
When analyzing modern machine learning algorithms, we may need to handle kernel density estimation (KDE) with intricate kernels that are not designed by the user and might even be irregular and asymmetric. To handle this emerging challenge, we provide a strong uniform consistency result with the $L^\infty$ convergence rate for KDE on Riemannian manifolds with Riemann integrable kernels (in the ambient Euclidean space). We also provide an $L^1$ consistency result for kernel density estimation on Riemannian manifolds with Lebesgue integrable kernels. The isotropic kernels considered in this pape…
Bootstrap consistency for general double/debiased machine learning estimators
本文研究了双重/去偏机器学习估计量的自助法有效性，证明在一般可交换加权重采样方案下，其自助法在相同条件下收敛于原始估计量的抽样分布。
We derive asymptotic normality of kernel type deconvolution estimators of the density, the distribution function at a fixed point, and of the probability of an interval. We consider the so called super smooth case where the characteristic function of the known distribution decreases exponentially. It turns out that the limit behavior of the pointwise estimators of the density and distribution function is relatively straightforward while the asymptotics of the estimator of the probability of an interval depends in a complicated way on the sequence of bandwidths.
Asymptotic normality and strong consistency of kernel regression estimation in q-calculus
本文基于q-微积分构造非参数核回归估计量，并在适当假设下证明了其渐近正态性与强相合性。
Kimura and Yoshida treated a model in which the finite variation part of a two-dimensional semimartingale is expressed by time-integration of latent processes. They proposed a correlation estimator between the latent processes and proved its consistency and asymptotic mixed normality. In this paper, we discuss the confidence interval of the correlation estimator to detect the correlation. %between latent processes. We propose two types of estimators for asymptotic variance of the correlation estimator and prove their consistency in a high frequency setting. Our model includes doubly stochastic…
A new kernel estimator of hazard ratio and its asymptotic mean squared error
本文提出一种基于Ćwik和Mielniczuk方法改进的风险比核估计量，通过渐近均方误差比较，新估计量方差更小，且采用偏差减少方法保证非负性，并展示数值改进。
Nonparametric density and regression estimators commonly depend on a bandwidth. The asymptotic properties of these estimators have been widely studied when bandwidths are nonstochastic. In practice, however, in order to improve finite sample performance of these estimators, bandwidths are selected by data driven methods, such as cross-validation or plug-in procedures. As a result nonparametric estimators are usually constructed using stochastic bandwidths. In this paper we establish the asymptotic equivalence in probability of local polynomial regression estimators under stochastic and nonstoc…
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the self-similarity index of the Rosenblatt process by using the Whittle estimator. Via chaos expansion into multiple stochastic integrals, we establish a non-central limit theorem satisfied by this estimator. We illustrate our results by numerical simulations.
Viscosity estimation for 2D pipe flows I. Construction, consistency, asymptotic normality
针对受时空随机外力的二维矩形管道不可压缩粘性流，提出仅基于拟涡能观测的粘度估计量，并证明其强一致性与渐近正态性，为流体粘度估计提供理论支撑。
The Latent Block Model (LBM) is a model-based method to cluster simultaneously the $d$ columns and $n$ rows of a data matrix. Parameter estimation in LBM is a difficult and multifaceted problem. Although various estimation strategies have been proposed and are now well understood empirically, theoretical guarantees about their asymptotic behavior is rather sparse and most results are limited to the binary setting. We prove here theoretical guarantees in the valued settings. We show that under some mild conditions on the parameter space, and in an asymptotic regime where $\log(d)/n$ and $\log(n…
In this paper, the maximum spacing method is considered for multivariate observations. Nearest neighbour balls are used as a multidimensional analogue to univariate spacings. A class of information-type measures is used to generalize the concept of maximum spacing estimators. Asymptotic normality of these generalized maximum spacing estimators is proved when the assigned model class is correct, that is the true density is a member of the model class.
We study the isotonic regression estimator over a general countable pre-ordered set. We obtain the limiting distribution of the estimator and study its properties. It is proved that, under some general assumptions, the limiting distribution of the isotonized estimator is given by the concatenation of the separate isotonic regressions of the certain subvectors of an unrestrecred estimator's asymptotic distribution. Also, we show that the isotonization preserves the rate of convergence of the underlying estimator. We apply these results to the problems of estimation of a bimonotone regression fu…
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