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arXiv 2602.16239astro-ph.SR
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2023年4月21日日冕物质抛射的传播特性

Propagation Characteristics of the April 21, 2023 CME

Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar(印度理工学院甘地纳加尔分校);Physical Research Laboratory(物理研究实验室);Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Berhampur(印度科学教育与研究学院伯拉姆普尔分校);NASA Goddard Space Flight Center(美国国家航空航天局戈达德太空飞行中心)

Sandeep Kumar, Nandita Srivastava, Parthib Banerjee, Nat Gopalswamy

AI总结:

本文通过分析2023年4月21日CME的观测数据,利用GCS和ADBM模型,研究了日球层中CME传播方向的不确定性及其对到达时间预测的影响。

摘要:

准确估计日冕物质抛射(CME)的传播特性对于预测其对地球的影响至关重要。研究CME运动学的立体技术通常利用来自三个视角的遥感观测,即STEREO-A、STEREO-B和SOHO。由于STEREO-B在2014年失去后,CME的立体重建已限制在仅两个视角的观测,即STEREO-A和SOHO。当STEREO-A和SOHO之间的角度分离小时,使用立体技术推导出的CME运动学会产生更大的不确定性。本文演示了如何克服这一限制,并如何减少CME运动学和传播方向估计的不确定性。为此,我们选择了2023年4月21日的CME,该CME由两个航天器,即STEREO-A和SOHO观测,两者之间的角度分离为10度。利用接近太阳的遥感观测上的渐进圆柱壳(GCS)模型和日球层中的先进阻力模型(ADBM),我们估计了CME在日球层不同位置的到达时间,并将其与由三个航天器(贝皮可东号、STEREO-A和风)的原位测量得到的实际到达时间进行了比较。我们的分析揭示了从两个视角观测中存在约20度的方向不确定性。这些不确定性显著影响CME到达时间的预测。我们将CME在STEREO-A和风上的实际到达时间顺序视为约束传播方向的关键参数,这在ADBM中作为重要输入。CME喷射物在STEREO-A上的到达时间比在风上早4.5小时,证明了在GCS重建模型中解决方向模糊性的重要性。

英文摘要:

Accurate estimation of propagation characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is crucial for predicting their geoeffectiveness. Stereoscopic techniques to study the kinematics of CMEs generally have been carried out using remote sensing observations from three viewpoints, i.e. STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and SOHO. Since the loss of STEREO-B in 2014, stereoscopic reconstruction of CMEs has been restricted to the observations from only two viewpoints, i.e., STEREO-A and SOHO. When the angle of separation between STEREO-A and SOHO is small, it leads to larger uncertainties in the CME kinematics derived using stereoscopic techniques. In this paper, we demonstrate how this limitation can be addressed and how uncertainties in the estimation of CME kinematics and propagation direction can be reduced. For this purpose, we selected the CME of April 21, 2023, which was observed by two spacecraft, i.e. STEREO-A and SOHO, separated by a small 10 degree angle. Using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model on the remote-sensing observations near the Sun and the Advanced Drag-Based Model (ADBM) in the heliosphere, we estimated the arrival time of the CME at different locations in the heliosphere and compared it with the actual arrival time obtained from the in-situ measurements taken by three spacecraft, BepiColombo, STEREO-A and Wind. Our analysis reveals a directional uncertainty of approx 20 degree from observations from two viewpoints. These uncertainties significantly affect the arrival-time prediction of the CME. We consider the actual chronology of CME arrival times at STEREO-A and Wind as critical parameters to constrain the direction of propagation, which serves as a key input in the ADBM. The chronology of arrival of the CME ejecta at STEREO-A, which is 4.5 hrs earlier than at Wind, proved essential for resolving directional ambiguities in the GCS reconstruction model

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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