To accurately predict the space weather effects of coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts at Earth one must know if and when a CME will impact Earth, and the CME parameters upon impact. Kay et al. (2015b) presents Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), a model for CME deflections based on the magnetic forces from the background solar magnetic field. Knowing the deflection and rotation of a CME enables prediction of Earth impacts, and the CME orientation upon impact. We first reconstruct the positions of the 2008 April 10 and the 2012 July 12 CMEs from the observations. The first of these CMEs exhibits significant deflection and rotation (34 degrees deflection and 58 degrees rotation), while the second shows almost no deflection or rotation (<3 degrees each). Using ForeCAT, we explore a range of initial parameters, such as the CME location and size, and find parameters that can successfully reproduce the behavior for each CME. Additionally, since the deflection depends strongly on the behavior of a CME in the low corona (Kay et al. (2015a, 2015b)), we are able to constrain the expansion and propagation of these CMEs in the low corona.
To predict whether a coronal mass ejection (CME) will impact Earth, the effects of the background on the CME's trajectory must be taken into account. We develop a model, ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory), of CME deflection due to magnetic forces. ForeCAT includes CME expansion, a three-part propagation model, and the effects of drag on the CME's deflection. Given the background solar wind conditions, the launch site of the CME, and the properties of the CME (mass, final propagation speed, initial radius, and initial magnetic strength), ForeCAT predicts the deflection of the CME.…
Decades of observations show that CMEs can deflect from a purely radial trajectory yet no consensus exists as to the cause of these deflections. Many of theories attribute the CME deflection to magnetic forces. We developed ForeCAT (Kay et al. 2013, Kay et al. 2015), a model for CME deflections based solely on magnetic forces, neglecting any reconnection effects. Here we compare ForeCAT predictions to the observed deflection of the 2008 December 12 CME and find that ForeCAT can accurately reproduce the observations. Multiple observations show that this CME deflected nearly 30° in latitude (Byr…
Accurate space weather forecasting requires knowledge of the trajectory of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), including any deflections close to the Sun or through interplanetary space. Kay et al. 2013 introduced ForeCAT, a model of CME deflection resulting from the background solar magnetic field. For a magnetic field solution corresponding to Carrington Rotation (CR) 2029 (declining phase, April-May 2005), the majority of the CMEs deflected to the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS), the minimum in magnetic pressure on global scales. Most of the deflection occurred below 4 Rs. Here we extend ForeCA…
Between the 13 and 16 of February 2011 a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupted from multiple polarity inversion lines within active region 11158. For seven of these CMEs we use the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) flux rope model to determine the CME trajectory using both Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and coronagraph images. We then use the Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) model for nonradial CME dynamics driven by magnetic forces, to simulate the deflection and rotation of the seven CMEs. We find good agreement between th…
Understanding the trajectory of a coronal mass ejection (CME), including any deflection from a radial path, and the orientation of its magnetic field is essential for space weather predictions. Kay et al. (2015b) developed a model, Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), of CME deflections and rotation due to magnetic forces, not including the effects of reconnection. ForeCAT is able to reproduce the deflection of observed CMEs (Kay et al. 2015a). The deflecting CMEs tend to show a rapid increase of their angular momentum close to the Sun, followed by little to no increase at farther…
In this paper, ten CME events viewed by the STEREO twin spacecraft are analyzed to study the deflections of CMEs during their propagation in the corona. Based on the three-dimensional information of the CMEs derived by the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model [Thernisien et al., 2006], it is found that the propagation directions of eight CMEs had changed. By applying the theoretical method proposed by Shen et al. [2011] to all the CMEs, we found that the deflections are consistent, in strength and direction, with the gradient of the magnetic energy density. There is a positive correlation b…
We analyze five events of the interaction of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with the remote coronal rays located up to 90^\circ away from the CME as observed by the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph. Using sequences of SOHO/LASCO C2 images, we estimate the kink propagation in the coronal rays during their interaction with the corresponding CMEs ranging from 180 to 920 km/s within the interval of radial distances form 3 R. to 6 R. . We conclude that all studied events do not correspond to the expected pattern of shock wave propagation in the corona. Coronal ray deflection can be interpreted as the influ…
Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produce adverse space weather effects at Earth. Planets in the close habitable zone of magnetically active M dwarfs may experience more extreme space weather than at Earth, including frequent CME impacts leading to atmospheric erosion and leaving the surface exposed to extreme flare activity. Similar erosion may occur for hot Jupiters with close orbits around solar-like stars. We have developed a model, Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), which predicts a CME's deflection. We adapt ForeCAT to simulate CME deflections for the mid-type M dwarf V3…
Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are sometimes deflected during their propagation. This deflection may be the consequence of interaction between a CME and a coronal hole or the solar wind. We analyze 44 halo-CMEs whose deflection angle exceeds 90 degrees. The coronal magnetic field configuration is computed from daily synoptic maps of magnetic field from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI using a Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model. By comparing the ambient magnetic field configuration and the measured position angles (MPA) of the CMEs, we conclude that the deflection of 80% of the CMEs (35 of 44…
Early Evolution of Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections in the Vicinity of Coronal Holes
Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb（萨格勒布大学测地学院哈弗观测台）；Institute of Physics, University of Graz（格拉茨大学物理研究所）；Department of Physics, University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学物理系）；Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung（马克斯·普朗克太阳系统研究所）
The understanding of the causes that produce the deflection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is essential for the space weather forecast. In this article, we study the effects on CMEs trajectories produced by the different properties of a coronal hole close to the ejection area. For this analysis, we perform numerical simulations of the ideal magnetohydrodynamics equations that emulate the early rising of the CME in presence of a coronal hole. We find that, the stronger the magnetic field and the wider the coronal hole area, the larger the CME deflection. This effect is reduced when the corona…
How to properly understand coronal mass ejections (CMEs) viewed in white-light coronagraphs is crucial to many relative researches in solar and space physics. The issue is now particularly addressed in this paper through studying the source locations of all the 1078 LASCO CMEs listed in CDAW CME catalog during 1997 -- 1998 and their correlation with CMEs' apparent parameters. By manually checking LASCO and EIT movies of these CMEs, we find that, except 231 CMEs whose source locations can not be identified due to poor data, there are 288 CMEs with location identified on the front-side solar dis…
In 2010 May 23-24, SDO observed the launch of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which were subsequently tracked by the SECCHI suite onboard STEREO. Using the COR2 coronagraphs and the heliospheric imagers (HIs), the initial direction of both CMEs is determined to be slightly west of the Sun-Earth line. We derive the CME kinematics, including the evolution of the CME expansion until 0.4 AU. We find that, during the interaction, the second CME decelerates from a speed above 500 km/s to 380 km/s the speed of the leading edge of the first CME. STEREO observes a complex structure compos…
Predicting transit times of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from their initial parameters is a very important subject, not only from the scientific perspective, but also because CMEs represent a hazard for human technology. We used a neural network to analyse transit times for 153 events with only two input parameters: initial velocity of the CME, $v$, and Central Meridian Distance, CMD, of its associated flare. We found that transit time dependence on $v$ is showing a typical drag-like pattern in the solar wind. The results show that the speed at which acceleration by drag changes to decelerati…
A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a type II burst and originating close to the center of the solar disk typically results in a shock at Earth in 2-3 days and hence can be used to predict shock arrival at Earth. However, a significant fraction (about 28%) of such CMEs producing type II bursts were not associated with shocks at Earth. We examined a set of 21 type II bursts observed by the Wind/WAVES experiment at decameter-hectometric (DH) wavelengths that had CME sources very close to the disk center (within a central meridian distance of 30 degrees), but did not have a shock at Ear…
Motivated by the need to improve the ability to forecast whether a certain coronal mass ejection (CME) is to impact Earth, and by the insufficiency of statistical studies that analyze the whole erupting system with the focus on the governing conditions under CME deflections, we performed a careful analysis of 13 events along a one-year time interval showing large deflections from their source region. We used telescopes imaging the solar corona at different heights and wavelengths on board the Project for Onboard Autonomy 2 (PROBA2), Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), Solar TErrestrial RElations…
Energetic flares and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from young magnetically active solar-like stars can play a critical role in setting conditions for atmospheric escape as well aspenetration of accelerated particles into their atmospheres that promotes formation of biologically relevant molecules. We have used the observationally reconstructed magnetic field of the 0.7 Gyr-young Suns twin, k1 Ceti, to study the effects of CME deflections in the magnetic corona of the young Sun and their effects on the impact frequency on the early Venus, Earth and Mars. We find that the coronal magn…
We present a novel three-dimensional (3D) model of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that unifies all key evolutionary aspects of CMEs and encapsulates their 3D magnetic field configuration. This fully analytic model is capable of reproducing the global geometrical shape of a CME with all major deformations taken into account, i.e., deflection, rotation, expansion, "pancaking", front flattening and rotational skew. Encapsulation of 3D magnetic structure allows the model to reproduce in-situ measurements of magnetic field for trajectories of spacecraft-CME encounters of any degree of complexity. As…
We present a numerical investigation of the coronal evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2005 August 22 using a 3-D thermodynamics magnetohydrodynamic model, the SWMF. The source region of the eruption was anemone active region (AR) 10798, which emerged inside a coronal hole. We validate our modeled corona by producing synthetic extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images, which we compare to EIT images. We initiate the CME with an out-of-equilibrium flux rope with an orientation and chirality chosen in agreement with observations of a H-alpha filament. During the eruption, one footpoint of the …
Flux ropes (FRs) ejected from the Sun may change their geometrical orientation during their evolution which directly affects their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how solar FRs evolve in the heliosphere to improve our space weather forecasting tools. We analyze 15 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with clear FR signatures, observed during the decay of Solar Cycle 23 and rise of Solar Cycle 24. We estimate initial orientations of the FRs at the origin using extreme ultraviolet observations of post-eruption arcades and/or eruptive prominences. Then we reconstruct multiviewp…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main driver of Space Weather. Therefore, a precise forecasting of their likely geo-effectiveness relies on an accurate tracking of their morphological and kinematical evolution throughout the interplanetary medium. However, single view-point observations require many assumptions to model the development of the features of CMEs, the most common hypotheses were those of radial propagation and self-similar expansion. The use of different view-points shows that at least for some cases, those assumptions are no longer valid. From radial propagation, typical att…
Since Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the major drivers of space weather, it is crucial to study their evolution starting from the inner corona. In this work we use Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model to study the 3D evolution of 59 CMEs in the inner ($<$ 3R$_{\odot}$) and outer ($>$ 3R$_{\odot}$) corona using observations from COR-1 and COR-2 on-board Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. We identify the source regions of these CMEs and classify them as CMEs associated with Active Regions (ARs), Active Prominences (APs), and Prominence Eruptions (PEs). We find 27 …
In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011 near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interaction with a HSS, which emanates from a coronal hole (CH) close to the launch site of the CME. The results indicate that the major interaction between the CME and the HSS starts at a height of 1.3 Rsun…
The propagation properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are crucial to predict its geomagnetic effect. A newly developed three dimensional (3D) mask fitting reconstruction method using coronagraph images from three viewpoints has been described and applied to the CME ejected on August 7, 2010. The CME's 3D localisation, real shape and morphological evolution are presented. Due to its interaction with the ambient solar wind, the morphology of this CME changed significantly in the early phase of evolution. Two hours after its initiation, it was expanding almost self-similarly. CME's 3D local…
