Quantile-Physics Hybrid Framework for Safe-Speed Recommendation under Diverse Weather Conditions Leveraging Connected Vehicle and Road Weather Information Systems Data
University at Buffalo（布法罗大学）
Wen Zhang, Adel W. Sadek, Chunming Qiao
备注：
This work was presented as a poster at the 2026 Transportation Research Board (TRB) Annual Meeting
Inclement weather conditions can significantly impact driver visibility and tire-road surface friction, requiring adjusted safe driving speeds to reduce crash risk. This study proposes a hybrid predictive framework that recommends real-time safe speed intervals for freeway travel under diverse weather conditions. Leveraging high-resolution Connected Vehicle (CV) data and Road Weather Information System (RWIS) data collected in Buffalo, NY, from 2022 to 2023, we construct a spatiotemporally aligned dataset containing over 6.6 million records across 73 days. The core model employs Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) to estimate vehicle speed distributions in 10-minute windows, using 26 input features that capture meteorological, pavement, and temporal conditions. To enforce safety constraints, a physics-based upper speed limit is computed for each interval based on real-time road grip and visibility, ensuring that vehicles can safely stop within their sight distance. The final recommended interval fuses QRF-predicted quantiles with both posted speed limits and the physics-derived upper bound. Experimental results demonstrate strong predictive performance: the QRF model achieves a mean absolute error of 1.55 mph, with 96.43% of median speed predictions within 5 mph, a PICP (50%) of 48.55%, and robust generalization across weather types. The model's ability to respond to changing weather conditions and generalize across road segments shows promise for real-world deployment, thereby improving traffic safety and reducing weather-related crashes.
Pan African University（泛非大学）；University of Nairobi（内罗毕大学）；Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学）
A reliable and accurate forecasting model for crop yields is of crucial importance for efficient decision-making process in the agricultural sector. However, due to weather extremes and uncertainties, most forecasting models for crop yield are not reliable and accurate. For measuring the uncertainty and obtaining further information of future crop yields, a probability density forecasting model based on quantile random forest and Epanechnikov kernel function (QRF-SJ) is proposed. The nonlinear structure of random forest is applied to change the quantile regression model for building the probab…
The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）；Lyft Inc.（Lyft公司）
Road construction projects maintain transportation infrastructures. These projects range from the short-term (e.g., resurfacing or fixing potholes) to the long-term (e.g., adding a shoulder or building a bridge). Deciding what the next construction project is and when it is to be scheduled is traditionally done through inspection by humans using special equipment. This approach is costly and difficult to scale. An alternative is the use of computational approaches that integrate and analyze multiple types of past and present spatiotemporal data to predict location and time of future road const…
In this paper, we present a novel approach to identify the Spatio-temporal and environmental features that influence the safety of a road and predict its accident proneness based on these features. A total of 14 features were compiled based on Time, Weather, and Location (TWL) specificity along a road. To determine the influence each of the 14 features carries, a sensitivity study was performed using Principal Component Analysis. Using the locations of accident warnings, a Safety Index was developed to quantify how accident-prone a particular road is. We implement a novel approach to predict t…
iWatchRoadv2: Pothole Detection, Geospatial Mapping, and Intelligent Road Governance
National Institute of Science Education and Research (NISER), An OCC of HBNI（国家科学教育与研究 institute（NISER），HBNI 的一个办事处）；Silicon Institute of Technology（硅技术学院）
Machine Learning Detection of Road Surface Conditions: A Generalizable Model using Traffic Cameras and Weather Data
Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany（大气科学研究中心，阿尔巴尼大学）；Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany（大气与环境科学系，阿尔巴尼大学）；State Weather Risk Communication Center（州天气风险沟通中心）；National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research（国家科学基金会大气研究中心）；School of Computer Science, The University of Oklahoma（计算机科学学院，俄克拉荷马大学）；Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere（大气研究合作研究所）
Normandie Univ（诺曼底大学）；INSA Rouen（鲁昂国立应用科学学院）；UNIROUEN（鲁昂大学）；UNIHAVRE（勒阿弗尔大学）；LITIS（LITIS实验室）；University of Burgundy（勃艮第大学）；UBFC（勃艮第-弗朗什孔泰大学）；ImViA（ImViA实验室）
Object detection in road scenes is necessary to develop both autonomous vehicles and driving assistance systems. Even if deep neural networks for recognition task have shown great performances using conventional images, they fail to detect objects in road scenes in complex acquisition situations. In contrast, polarization images, characterizing the light wave, can robustly describe important physical properties of the object even under poor illumination or strong reflections. This paper shows how non-conventional polarimetric imaging modality overcomes the classical methods for object detectio…
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter（埃克塞特大学工程、数学与物理科学学院）；Met Office（英国气象局）；School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow（格拉斯哥大学计算科学学院）
Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the forecasting skill of NWP models continues to improve, the number and complexity of these models poses a new challenge for the operational meteorologist: how should the information from all available models, each with their own unique biases and limitations, be combined in order to provide stakeholders with well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts to use in dec…
Computer Science Georgia State University Atlanta, USA（计算机科学 乔治亚州立大学 奥斯汀, 美国）；Computer Science Texas Christian University Texas, USA（计算机科学 德克萨斯基督教大学 德克萨斯, 美国）
In this paper, we present a monitoring system that allows increasing road safety by predicting ice formation. The system consists of a network of road weather stations and intelligence data processing program module. The results were achieved by combining physical models for forecasting road conditions based on measurements from stations and machine learning models for detecting incorrect data and forecast correction.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory（太平洋西北国家实验室）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Fundamental diagrams describe the relationship between speed, flow, and density for some roadway (or set of roadway) configuration(s). These diagrams typically do not reflect, however, information on how speed-flow relationships change as a function of exogenous variables such as curb configuration, weather or other exogenous, contextual information. In this paper we present a machine learning methodology that respects known engineering constraints and physical laws of roadway flux - those that are captured in fundamental diagrams - and show how this can be used to introduce contextual informa…
Zenuity AB（Zenuity公司）；Chalmers University of Technology（查尔姆斯理工大学）
In this paper, the problem of road friction prediction from a fleet of connected vehicles is investigated. A framework is proposed to predict the road friction level using both historical friction data from the connected cars and data from weather stations, and comparative results from different methods are presented. The problem is formulated as a classification task where the available data is used to train three machine learning models including logistic regression, support vector machine, and neural networks to predict the friction class (slippery or non-slippery) in the future for specifi…
Daimler AG R&D（戴姆勒股份公司研发部）；University of Ulm（乌尔姆大学）
This paper proposes an approach that predicts the road course from camera sensors leveraging deep learning techniques. Road pixels are identified by training a multi-scale convolutional neural network on a large number of full-scene-labeled night-time road images including adverse weather conditions. A framework is presented that applies the proposed approach to longer distance road course estimation, which is the basis for an augmented reality navigation application. In this framework long range sensor data (radar) and data from a map database are fused with short range sensor data (camera) t…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Nanjing University of Science and Technology（南京理工大学）
An accurate road surface friction prediction algorithm can enable intelligent transportation systems to share timely road surface condition to the public for increasing the safety of the road users. Previously, scholars developed multiple prediction models for forecasting road surface conditions using historical data. However, road surface condition data cannot be perfectly collected at every timestamp, e.g. the data collected by on-vehicle sensors may be influenced when vehicles cannot travel due to economic cost issue or weather issues. Such resulted missing values in the collected data can …
Texas A&M University（德克萨斯A&M大学）；Texas A&M University at Galveston（德克萨斯A&M大学加尔维斯顿分校）；University of Delaware（特拉华大学）
The objective of this study is to predict road flooding risks based on topographic, hydrologic, and temporal precipitation features using machine learning models. Predictive flood monitoring of road network flooding status plays an essential role in community hazard mitigation, preparedness, and response activities. Existing studies related to the estimation of road inundations either lack observed road inundation data for model validations or focus mainly on road inundation exposure assessment based on flood maps. This study addresses this limitation by using crowdsourced and fine-grained tra…
The classification of individual traffic participants is a complex task, especially for challenging scenarios with multiple road users or under bad weather conditions. Radar sensors provide an - with respect to well established camera systems - orthogonal way of measuring such scenes. In order to gain accurate classification results, 50 different features are extracted from the measurement data and tested on their performance. From these features a suitable subset is chosen and passed to random forest and long short-term memory (LSTM) classifiers to obtain class predictions for the radar input…
Public transportation system commuters are often interested in getting accurate travel time information to plan their daily activities. However, this information is often difficult to predict accurately due to the irregularities of road traffic, caused by factors such as weather conditions, road accidents, and traffic jams. In this study, two neural network models namely multi-layer(MLP) perceptron and long short-term model(LSTM) are developed for predicting link travel time of a busy route with input generated using Origin-Destination travel time matrix derived from a historical GPS dataset. …
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)（荷兰皇家气象研究所（KNMI））；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）
Current statistical post-processing methods for probabilistic weather forecasting are not capable of using full spatial patterns from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. In this paper we incorporate spatial wind speed information by using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and obtain probabilistic wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands for 48 hours ahead, based on KNMI's deterministic Harmonie-Arome NWP model. The probabilistic forecasts from the CNNs are shown to have higher Brier skill scores for medium to higher wind speeds, as well as a better continuous ranked probability sco…
Modernizing CNN-based Weather Forecast Model towards Higher Computational Efficiency
Applied Science Research Institute, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院应用科学研究所）；Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainability, KAIST（绿色增长与可持续性研究生院）；Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, KAIST（土木与环境工程系）；Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, KAIST（未来战略研究生院）
Replacing Tunable Parameters in Weather and Climate Models with State-Dependent Functions using Reinforcement Learning
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学应用数学与理论物理系）；School of Mathematical Sciences, Lancaster University（兰卡斯特大学数学科学学院）；Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学计算机科学与技术系）；Met Office Hadley Centre（英国气象局哈德利中心）
Oxford Robotics Institute (ORI)（牛津机器人研究所）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
Road boundaries, or curbs, provide autonomous vehicles with essential information when interpreting road scenes and generating behaviour plans. Although curbs convey important information, they are difficult to detect in complex urban environments (in particular in comparison to other elements of the road such as traffic signs and road markings). These difficulties arise from occlusions by other traffic participants as well as changing lighting and/or weather conditions. Moreover, road boundaries have various shapes, colours and structures while motion planning algorithms require accurate and …
University of Winnipeg（温尼伯大学）；Weatherlogics Inc.（韦瑟洛吉克斯公司）
Weather is an important factor affecting transportation and road safety. In this paper, we leverage state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks in labelling images taken by street and highway cameras located across across North America. Road camera snapshots were used in experiments with multiple deep learning frameworks to classify images by road condition. The training data for these experiments used images labelled as dry, wet, snow/ice, poor, and offline. The experiments tested different configurations of six convolutional neural networks (VGG-16, ResNet50, Xception, InceptionResNetV2, …
